Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are not liking the new round in the US trade war with China with falls across the region as Yen buyers step in on the safe haven and the Australian dollar is wallopped on the commodity selloff while the Yuan has sold off to a new monthly low.

The Shanghai Composite has fallen nearly 2% to be at 2859 points while the Hang Seng Index has gapped down a further 2.4% to 26913 points. This puts it almost back to the May lows in one foul swoop!

Japanese share markets are doing even worse, off by nearly 3% with the Nikkei 225 currently at 20967 points. The USDJPY pair is now threatening the 107 handle here after its 200 pip move down overnight:

The ASX200 has escaped most of the carnage, falling only 0.4% to be at 6754 points mainly due to the much lower Australian dollar which is still struggling to get off the mat, currently howvering just above the 68 handle and ready to breakdown again:

S&P and Eurostoxx futures are off considerably and for good reason going into the European session with the S&P500 four hourly chart looking to break below the key support level at 2950 poins that has been held for most of the calendar yeaR:

The economic calendar closes the week out with a big one – US non farm payrolls or better known as July employment figures. Its going to be a fun night! Have a safe weekend.

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  1. So NFP is supposed to be in around 8pm WST, so 10pm for east coasters. Want to see the poo get kicked into the 67’s

    • Yeah, if it’s good, then USD may roar….if the poo breaks into the 67s, I wonder if that will have significant psychological impact? It may not break above 68.5 after that….

      Interesting times.

      All smells very toppy.

    • The Beetrooter Advocate

      If only that Wilbs chunt was still around so we could learn how to make serious wodge of this bondcano that’s exploding off events like tonight’s print atm.

      I miss that fckn yellow ass’d character. I only wish I’d listened to what he said when he was around.

      • Nah. He was all puns and no substance. Just window dressing. We’d be better off with a spruiker of purplish root vegetables.

      • The Beetrooter Advocate

        I’d blush, but there’s no point. No one would be able to tell the difference!

      • I’ve never actually looked at the USD/RMB chart before. Todays action is pretty interesting!

      • Timmeh AUD has tracked yuan pretty well lately… yuan is not free floating so they reset the daily fix each day … today’s deliberate devaluation against the USD looks like a not at all subtle retaliation at trump.

        AUD bearish!

      • The orange man will likely have something interesting to say about that when he wakes up! 🙂

        This is all getting very interesting.

      • The Beetrooter Advocate

        The orange man with the even oranger hair already did. Press conference. Explicitly mentioned currency deval of Chyna. Was even on SBS.

    • Nothingburger. Wages up but thats about it.
      Still glad to see the poo in the 67’s though. Monday some fvckwit will bid it up no doubt though.

    • I was the only sucker left behind at work… all my colleagues made themselves scarce … and when I raised my head from that sh*tty documentation I’ve been reading, I was the only one left… so.. I left.. woo! Half an hour early today! 🤨

      • Suck sh1t Ino, onto my second schooie by 4.32. Mind you, first and probably last time this year. 😞

      • Left early!?! I’ve only just left work and ready for a cracking weekend. MOAR wine!

  2. What does the phrase one fell swoop mean?
    Fell here is an adjective meaning fierce, savage, cruel, or ruthless. 1 This sense of fell is otherwise archaic, preserved mainly in this idiom. The swoop in one fell swoop is a noun referring to (1) a blow or stroke or (2), metaphorically, a bird’s sudden, sweeping descent from a height.

    • yeborskyMEMBER

      You are entirely correct, John, but if there was one happening somewhere nearby, I’d like to actually witness a foul swoop. Just so I’d know what it was for future reference. Of course, you know that, given time, those mangling our fine language will hold sway and “fell” will be replaced by “foul”.

  3. Finally someone has said it!

    I dunno why it’s “unofficial”. I thought 20% was the metric?

    “The situation today is very different to 2011 when the RBA first started to cut rates in this interest rate cutting cycle which in turn helped unleash booming conditions in the NSW and Victorian economies and rapid debt growth made easy by somewhat lax bank lending standards”

    Somewhat lax? Fvck me dead. A retarded 5 year old could have walked into the bank and gotten a IO investment loan during the dumb times!

      • First time I watched it I hated it (can’t remember which cut it was), then I watched another version and thought it was really good the second time. The follow up with Ryan Gosling was awesome too.

      • I never got around to watching it until just before the sequel came out, I think it was the directors cut. Enjoyed both it and the sequel.

      • Bah, kids these days…. not so sure about the reheated pizza that was the second blade runner. First Blade Runner was back in the days when musical score was the other 50% of the magic of the movie.

        “Do you like our owl?”
        “Is it artificial?”
        “Of course it is…”
        “Must be expensive…”
        “Very… … I’m Rachel”
        “It seems you feel our work is not a benefit to the public”
        “Replicants are like any other machines: they are either a benefit or a hazard, though their benefit is not my problem”
        “May I ask you a personal question?”
        “Have you ever retired a human, by mistake?”
        “but in your position that is a risk”
        “Is this to be an empathy test?”
        “Capilary dilation of the so called blush response … fluctuation of the … pupil … Involuntary dilation of the iris”
        “We call it Voight-Kampf for short”
        “Mr. Deckard, Dr. Elden Tyrell”
        “Demonstrate it. I want to see it work”
        “Were is the subject?”
        “I want to see it work on a person I want to see a negative before I provide you with a positive”
        “What’s that gonna prove?”
        “Indulge me”
        “On you?”
        “Try her”

      • Ino, through bloodshot eyes, Sean Young was going to be my future ex-wife. Also wanted Tyrell’s apartment…so long as it was not built in Sydney or Melbourne. And the Vangelis score is just amazing.

      • @wing nut

        Yes, Sean Young… deary me! Never really had crushes on actresses… but her… whole different story. I found, for whatever reason, that her with that hairdo she was supremely sexeh! Still do to date.

        And yes, Vangelis always wrote gorgeous scores… (with the only notable exception being Beaubourg, where possibly loading up on reality perception altering medication may make it more easy to understand)

    • I remember how excited they were over there, when for a short time they had the highest median price, and now Hobart is higher!

      • I moved to Perth in 06 at the height of insanity. Was dumbfounded even after moving from Mackay and wondering why the fvck house prices were so high in that sh1thole. I haven’t stopped scratching my head since. The c0cks that have bid up Hobart to the detriment of the locals will get their just desserts one day.

      • We may have arrived on the same plane, Timmeh. The Perth housing market did my head in then, and had done so ever since. I’m still amazed at its resilience. I’m still amazed at people’s willingness to buy at the absolute extremes of their borrowing capacity just to have their own place, even if that means one partner going back to FIFO. Apparently having a life is a poor second to mortgage slavery.

      • @Geordie too many aspirational types.

        I had a similar experience arriving at Dublin in 07′ – People were paying silly money for the crappiest oldest run down dumps with rising damp and I recall talking to 1 Scottish RE agent working there, it was a lease for a dump in Dolphins Barn. He just shook his head and said, people are crazy and he actively discouraged us from renting the place lol. He just looked so deflated poor guy. That was before it all crashed too. (Google Image Search for Dolphin’s Barn to see what a dump it looks like).

        Edit* Actually perfect example lol.

        Our bubble has been far more resilient, perhaps because Australia has historically been a wealthy nation and the homes were of better quality / standards and living conditions. Of course we’ve cashed in on our good credibility and ruined our reputation over the last 20 years in my opinion. It all culminated in Opal Towers cracking.

  4. The Beetrooter Advocate

    Ok, I’ll be honest. Woke up this morning and checked my phone and had to reach for a tissue.

    Just checked the DAX. Suggest y’all go long on Kleenex.

    • Lol! Looks like Wiley Wolf finally got his surfing thingy off the ground!!! 😀

      No wonder he hasn’t commented here for a while!

      • The Beetrooter Advocate

        I always thought that shark repeller was going to be cardboard cutouts of Mick Fanning that a surfer could tow behind their board to scare off the sharks.

        Kind of like a portable Mick Dundee for crocodiles.

  5. Let me simplafie would you like 1 ounce of shiny stuff or the latest game consoul and game iPhone ect now one wants a lump shiny stuff that dose nothing only Tony abotts get it boys get out while you can girlyboys

  6. comment from FTA
    Heron 1 hour ago
    My experience of the university sector based on the same degree that I did compared to my son, who is currently two years into his, is that fees are driving universities’ strategy and not for the benefit of the students.
    When I did my degree in engineering, it was tough from the first year to the third. We had drop outs both at the end of the first and second year, but relatively few. I think that was because the entrance grade standard (adjusted for grade inflation) was higher and the students therefore more likely to cope.
    However, looking at the subjects and teaching of my son is receiving, the first year was quite easy and second much harder, but there have been higher drop out rates. 
    My theory, and it is purely anecdotal, is that universities these days are packing the students in to get as much as the fee availability as possible. If a university has lecture theatres that can accommodate 100 students, they will fill them because the marginal cost of accepting the students is very low. Inevitably, students have been accepted for degrees, who cannot cope and should never have been accepted. However, the university has benefited from two years of fees from these less capable students, without harming the standard of the degrees awarded to the ‘survivors’ by the end.
    It is easy to blame the government for the current situation, but society is equally culpable because of the way that we hold degrees so high – even though each year, students graduate with degrees in subjects, even from the better universities, that will not help them in their future careers. 
    The idea of levelling the playing field for the less privileged by allowing them access to funding to afford university was noble and while this has definitely benefitted very many, who could not have achieved a degree in the past, it has swelled numbers in the university system beyond what arguably is beneficial to the students or the country. This has to be looked at and adjusted. Perhaps penalising universities for drop outs? 
    There are other career pathways such as apprenticeships and other vocational courses, which in many cases is a better option for a school leaver to enter into a career that he/she will be better fulfilled both in job satisfaction and remuneration, without the burden of huge student loans on their shoulders. There should be more encouragement by schools’ career officers, companies and government to look at non-university options. 

    • DodgydamoMEMBER

      Could be the observed ‘easy’ first year is to bring today’s students up to uni entry level of earlier times following the erosion of year 12 standards in maths etc over the last 30 years or so


    “Some developers may then find they are in breach of financial covenants, pushing them into a stress or distress quickly.”

    He warned that these collapses could “radiate out” from buyers who lose their deposits to builders and then subcontractors.

    “Builders don’t get paid and are the first to go broke. They owe money to all their subcontractors and so the distress spreads,” Mr Walter said.

    Oh my. Whocoodanode?

    • “It won’t be like Detroit, when apartments sold for $50,000.”

      Damn straight. No-one’s paying $50K USD for a slice of half-built potential future Mascot Tower. That sh!t is going to zero.

  8. Lyon’s getting some good turn and float, and surprisingly Siddle’s bowling well.

    But none of them look as threatening as Broad did, who is a wonderful bowler in England. Broad and Stokes are my favourite pommy cricketers, because they annoy me so much.


    Considering they are still building it with stuff getting zoomed up to the top via lifts, i’m not sure it’s the sound of a concrete structure failing. Sounds more like the structure for the lifts creaking.

    Edit: wrong after reading the age article. It’s another building. meep

    He said Multiplex was investigating around 35 noise complaints from residents in the Australia 108 tower and was working to better understand the source.

    “It’s a fact-finding mission to find out that we might have missed a clip on one of the studs which is causing the trouble. It might be as simple as that. If it’s a clip that’s missing, we’ll install the clip and hopefully that’s the end of the issue.”

    Lol! yep, it’s probably just a clip!

    • Other great quotes:
      Opal Tower ” well above industry standard and a high-quality building ”
      Opal Tower ” all units were safe to live in ”
      Australia 108 ” Multiplex denied any structural issues “

    • The Beetrooter Advocate

      Well everyone asserted, continually, that there was nothing to worry about as the building was perfectly sound.

    • The Beetrooter Advocate

      A case of perfect pitch in fact. Around 5° from vertical at this point I’d guess.