Lunatic RBA celebrates iron ore boom as it busts

To describe the Lunatic RBA as slow moving would be to do a disservice to the tortoise. From today’s SoMP:

Stronger mining firm profits will also boost household sector incomes via shareholdings. Estimates suggest between a fifth and a quarter of the Australian iron ore mining industry is owned by the Australian household sector (either through direct holdings or via intermediaries such as superannuation funds), with most of the remainder owned by foreign investors. Market expectations and guidance from mining firms suggest that much of the increase in profits could be returned to shareholders. The distribution of higher profits will increase household income, which in turn could be used for household consumption. A lift in household wealth because of higher mining company share prices may further support household consumption.

Higher iron ore prices are therefore likely to increase nominal incomes in the Australian economy for a period. Given the recent strength in prices, and assuming prices gradually decrease in line with the path suggested by market expectations, nominal household disposable income and government revenue combined could be around A$5–10 billion higher each year on average over the next few years, relative to a scenario where prices had evolved as was expected in early 2019.

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