The national housing market has just experienced its largest downturn in dwelling values since at least the 1980s. The fact that values nationally fell by less than 10% speaks to the ongoing strength of the housing market over the past 40 years which has culminated in Australia being one of the most expensive places in the world in which to buy property.
Since the federal election in May, there have been ongoing signs of improving market conditions. This has been driven by a number of factors including: an unexpected win by the Coalition in the federal election which removed uncertainty about changes taxation policies relating to investment, two 25 basis point cuts to interest rates, tax cuts for low income earners and an easing of some of the previous lending restrictions that were in place. While there are clear signs of improving conditions, many point to the fact that the very low volume of sales in the market indicate that the recovery is not real or unsustainable. While that could very well prove to be true if/when stock levels rise, the truth of the matter is that in a downturn, sales volumes typically fall and subsequently, the early stages of a housing recovery are usually characterised by low volumes of sales.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
