Commodity price index signals further terms-of-trade lift

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The RBA has released its commodity price index for July, which increased by 3.1% in SDR (currency weighted) terms – the key determinant of the terms-of-trade – and by 2.2% in Australian dollar terms:

Preliminary estimates for July indicate that the index increased by 3.1 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after increasing by 2.9 per cent in June (revised). The non-rural subindex increased in the month, while the rural subindex decreased and the base metals subindex was little changed. In Australian dollar terms, the index increased by 2.2 per cent in July.

Over the past year, the index has increased by 16.1 per cent in SDR terms, led by higher iron ore, gold and copper ore prices. The index has increased by 21.0 per cent in Australian dollar terms.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.