Coalition to deliver more fake migrant visa cuts

Earlier this year, the Morrison Government cut Australia’s non-humanitarian permanent migrant intake by 30,000 to 160,000, in order to “relieve congestion in the cities”.

Now, ‘experts’ believe the Government is readying to cut Australia’s permanent migrant intake by another 10,000 people this year. From ABC News:

The regional and global talent visas represent almost 30,000 permanent visas in the Department of Home Affairs’ planning levels.

But according to two prominent migration experts — both former immigration officials — the Government might struggle to get to even 20,000 visa grants within these schemes.

John Hourigan, the national president of the Migration Institute of Australia, said the employer-sponsored stream in the regional visa posed the biggest concern.

“The program is currently set for 9,000; we probably believe they’d be lucky to get to 2,000 out of those places.”

He said the global talent scheme, set for 5,000 places, was also “very adventurous”, leaving permanent visa grants likely to fall significantly short of the planning level.

Migration researcher Henry Sherrell said given significant changes to policy, “it will be difficult” to fill 160,000 places.

“More likely is a figure somewhere between 140,000 and 150,000, representing a return to the level last seen about 15 years ago,” he said…

If Mr Hourigan and Mr Sherrell are accurate, the figure for 2019-10 could be 150,000 or even lower.

Permanent migrant visas returning “to the level last seen about 15 years ago” needs to be put into perspective. It still represents an incredibly high intake that would be more than double pre-2000 levels:

At the turn-of-the-century, the skilled intake was 35,000. Today it is 109,000 following the Coalition’s latest cuts.

Moreover, while the permanent migrant intake has been cut, actual net overseas migration (NOM) has been rising, as illustrated by the latest immigration data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS):

Indeed, the April Federal Budget projected that NOM would increase over the forward estimates:

It also projected extreme population growth for both New South Wales (read Sydney) and Victoria (read Melbourne):

The reason why Australia’s immigration intake continues to rise in the face of lower permanent migration is because of the large increase in temporary migrants, whose visas on issue have grown by around 540,000 since the Coalition was elected in 2013:

The key driver of this temporary visa surge are, first, the explosion of student visas, whose numbers have ballooned by around 280,000 since 2013:

Second, temporary bridging visas on issue – which are usually given to migrants awaiting claims for permanent residency – have ballooned by around 110,000 since 2013:

Therefore, in the short-to-medium term at least, the Coalition’s migrant cuts are a ruse, given actual NOM is projected to increase.

However, over the longer-term, NOM into Australia should fall. Temporary migrants are by definition temporary. So, unless they can convert to permanent residency, they will eventually have to leave.

Furthermore, many migrants come to Australia on temporary visas with the hope of transitioning to a ‘skilled’ permanent visa. So, as Australia removes the carrot of permanent residency by lowering the ‘skilled’ intake, it should necessarily reduce the flow of temporary migrants.

Ironically, because of Labor’s and The Greens’ open borders extremism, the Morrison Government is the default ‘lower immigration’ major party, even though it too supports a ‘Big Australia’. This helps to explain why it won the recent federal election.

Comments

  1. I really want the economy to crash hard 1890s style to stop this charade of Australia being destroyed by immigration and pc pandering to said immigrants by our traitorous political elites

    I want people to get mad and storm their mps office demanding immigration be slashed to bugger all…at the moment we are too fat and lazy and fed well

    This is our kids only hope for the future tbh

    • If the economy were to crash you’d see even more immigration as the businesses and their lobby groups who actually run the country would demand even cheaper labour.
      If the economy crashed you’d see the government try to boost it with quantitative peopling. Expect 500,000 per year in a recession, as a crowded Australia still beats 1ndia or Ch1na.

  2. The global talent visa is the genuinely skilled visa. The minimum salary on that is about $250k/year.

    Very interesting how billionaires import only a few thousand of those each year. That is how few genuinely skilled immigrants come here. The rest is just replacement labour on rock bottom wages.

    • Yep. I don’t think anyone objects to a really talented temporary worker coming in. I worked in the USA on an H1-B visa back in the day – there was an annual cap and the US dept of labor vetted applications carefully – plenty of companies had applications knocked back.

      If someone is skilled and can earn >$200k then let them in – obviously a needed skill. Anyone on under 80k we don’t really need them here. Grey area in the middle but think a firm cap needed.

      • Yep. There should be a $1000 per week tax on every work visa – offset by any income tax paid – that would mean those on $150k/year will be able to come here and those on $50k/year salaries will not be able to stay here.

  3. Says that old (Jack Lang) Labor dictum, ‘always back self interest, at least you know it’s trying’. Well, it’s not true. Ignoring the electors’ rejection of the open-ended migrant-parent visa, Albanese at once appointed an open-borders nut to shadow immigration. And Weatherill will ignore the issue, in their ‘no holds barred’ ‘warts and all’ election autopsy.

  4. So Skilled independent are at just above 10% of all immigrants they are roughly the only ones worth giving PR
    what is scary is that point list changed so much favouring international students
    for example: someone 30yo genius with PHD who worked 7 years in best places overseas, from English speaking country with partner with same skills gets less points (85) than someone aged 39, with poor English who finished master in a regional Australia while working 3 years and has unskilled partner (90 points).

  5. “Now, ‘experts’ believe the Government is readying to cut Australia’s permanent migrant intake by another 10,000 people this year.”

    Dear Scummo,
    Add another 0 to that number so we know you are serious about immigration cuts.
    Yours in Blind Faith,
    The quiet Australians.

  6. All about international student numbers, working holiday visas, and 457 (whatever they are called now…)
    That is what is driving the crush loading.

  7. A medical mate told me yesterday that medical is the new way…maybe it’s always been that way, but he’s concerned for his job.

  8. Gees I cannot believe that with the whole economy about to implode, we are still importing parents (read Indian grannies) to get off the plane at Mascot, sign up for the aged pension and discount Opal card and then plop themselves straight into the scarce public hospital beds at Nepean / Liverpool / Westmead to get their chronic issues dealt with.

    If that is not the definition of madness, I do not know what is.

    How about looking after Australian born unemployed, homeless and Indigenous a bit better first, you pack of CVNTS?

  9. The logic at the end of this piece is bizarre. If you’re worried about the effects of migrants on the market for Australian workers, then temporary visa holders are the worst of all: unlike permanent residents, who have the same labour rights as every Australian, they are effectively serfs who have to accept whatever their employer wants, however illegal, or risk deportation. A maximally Australian worker-friendly migration policy would encompass *only* permanent migration (plus tourists and non-working students).

  10. Meanwhile it is not just roads, trains, hospitals, schools and dog boxes that are crumbling in the great state of New South India as Gladys continues to fiddle while we hurtle toward a population of 8 million That’s right, yet another funding back hole:

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/no-relief-chief-magistrate-warns-that-local-court-at-breaking-point-20190825-p52khn.html

    As at December 2018, there were 137 magistrates on the bench compared with 133 six years ago.

    Onya Gladys. Really keeping up with that one.

    It’s a good thing migrants don’t commit crime, just like they don’t go to hospital or drink water …