Australian dollar to keep falling as America First powers on

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

DXY was up Friday night and looks close to break out. EUR and CNY fell:

The Australian dollar lifted anyway on the risk rebound:

It was stronger than EMs too:

CFTC positioning became is now extended bearish at -61k contracts:

Gold eased:

Oil was stable:

Metals soft:

Miners too:

EM stocks firmed:

And junk:

Treasuries fell:

And bunds:

Plus Aussie:

Stocks roared:

US data was again solid. Housing starts were up year on year:

Housing Starts:

Privately‐owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,191,000. This is 4.0 percent below the revised June estimate of 1,241,000, but is 0.6 percent above the July 2018 rate of 1,184,000. Single‐family housing starts in July were at a rate of 876,000; this is 1.3 percent above the revised June figure of 865,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 303,000.

Building Permits:

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,336,000. This is 8.4 percent above the revised June rate of 1,232,000 and is 1.5 percent above the July 2018 rate of 1,316,000. Single‐family authorizations in July were at a rate of 838,000; this is 1.8 percent above the revised June figure of 823,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 453,000 in July.

The big fall in the long bond is lifting housing (charts from WSJ Daily Shot):

While wages still strong with few layoffs:

Which, along with good productivity:

Is lifting wages:

Helping retail:

Which, in turn, is aiding industry:

And GDP gains:

From Merrill Lynch:

The data boosted our 3Q GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to 2.1% qoq saar. 2Q was unchanged at 1.8%.

And Goldman Sachs:

We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged on a rounded basis at +2.1% (qoq ar).

The US is holding up while China and Europe sink. This can only push DXY to break out as it delays Fed easing.

Driving the Australian dollar lower.


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  1. I took some profits on US 10 yr bonds on Friday night. There is a lot of Fed cuts / economic weakness factored in the price and I’m not so sure it’s in the data.

    I’m not saying the Fed won’t cut. But the price is factoring in really aggressive cuts. I wonder if the Fed might just cut a bit less readily… which might send bond yields up some (next entry point?) and send DXY up more to boot.

      • Don’t fret Wilbs. I didn’t sell the lot, and more importantly I kept my Aus ones.

        Would you be buying US bonds at today’s prices? Serious q.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Well, if it’ll stop you Leaning all over the place… 😉

      Me personally can’t buy any more bonds than I already have, so a bit moot question wise for moi. However I can say that if I were to sell any gov bonds, the US ones would be first on the list. With possibly buying more again later.

      EU and AUS bonds look like they’ll keep gurgling downwards. So I wouldn’t dream of selling either of those. Bring on the next budget update / MYEFO. Whichever comes first next. What surplus was that you were looking for Mr Friedtoacrisp?

      It’ll be the budget surplus we had to didn’t have!

      There, said it. First!

      • That was my thinking (on bonds).

        On surplus – they’ll probably get there. Budget has assumed a conservative (lower) iron ore price than the current price, so the budget is looking rosy tbh.

  2. One gets the feeling that Trump is going to back down on his trade war with China.

    Tricky situation for gold holders in the short term.

    • I’m sorry, Andrew. I don’t agree. I think that Trump and his mind is have used strategy. So brilliantly that they will go down in history as amongst the class Witnesses and other strategy giants. They’re playing this perfectly and the results. They’re getting are what I would suggest exactly what they’ve planned and hoped for. Obviously, they’re not in absolute control. But within the parameters that they could have hoped for it’s going very very well indeed.

    • MountainGuinMEMBER

      It was not long ago Trump announced the addition 10 percent tariff, even if he then delayed it.
      Unless China offered some sort of deal he liked, he can keep waiting. His economy is healthy and a China trade war was a goal of his.

  3. How relevant are the stories of US trucking companies facing hard times? It seems contrary to the US holding up narrative. It was only 6 months ago that I was reading they couldn’t find enough workers and labour prices were booming.