Australian dollar technicals are fugly

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

The US dollar index is running riot in Asia after it broke out of its neutral symmetrical triangle on the Fed disappointment:

There is room to run on this in terms of market positioning. The big long of US tax cuts has turned small short in recent months as the Fed mooted easing:

Further fuel is coming from the EUR which has broken down and appears headed for a retest of its 2017 low as the ECB piles in:

It also has the market positioning to run as markets have gotten an EZ recovery wrong and reduced its short materially:

Australian dollar technicals have a huge and bearish descending triangle right at the breaking point:

Market positioning is already bearish but can get more so:

Remember that chart levels are meaningless until broken. Maybe just meaningless period.

But within the regime the set up is unquestionably fugly for AUD.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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