Where have all the polls gone?

Via The Guardian:

Australian voters are warming to both Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese, with approval of both the major party leaders increasing as the 46th parliament settles into its post-election tempo, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll.

According to the latest survey of 1,091 respondents, the prime minister’s approval rating is five points higher than it was before the start of the election campaign.

Approval for the new Labor leader has also gone up four points in the past month from 35% in May to 39% in the latest poll. Two months after replacing Bill Shorten, Albanese’s standing is equivalent to Shorten’s prior to the federal election.

While the early voter sentiment for Albanese appears positive, the survey also indicates voters are yet to get a fix on the Labor leader, with 37% of the sample (and 33% of people identifying themselves as Labor voters) saying they don’t know whether they approve of his performance or not. Twenty-four per cent of the sample say they disapprove.

Morrison’s approval in the survey sits at 48%, with 34% disapproving and 18% saying they do not know whether they approve or disapprove of his performance. Unsurprisingly, the prime minister’s approval is highest among Coalition voters (86%). Other cohorts giving him the thumbs-up include retirees (58%) and people living in high-income households (59%).

On the preferred prime minister ranking, Morrison has a commanding lead over Albanese, with 44% of the sample endorsing the prime minister and 26% nominating the Labor leader (up one point in a month). Thirty-one per cent of the sample are not sure.

There has been controversy post-election about the reliability of opinion polling because none of the major surveys – Newspoll, Ipsos, Galaxy or Essential – correctly predicted a Coalition win on 18 May, projecting Labor in front on a two-party preferred vote of 51-49 and 52-48.

The lack of precision in the polling has prompted public reflection at Essential, as has been flagged by its executive director, Peter Lewis.

Guardian Australia is not currently publishing measurements of primary votes or a two-party preferred calculation, but is continuing to publish survey results of responses to questions about the leaders and policy issues. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3%.

Hiding in shame which, given they are all doing it together, only goes to show that that they have learned nothing from their failure.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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  1. Where have all the pollsters gone?
    Long time passing
    Where have all the pollsters gone?
    Long time ago
    Where have all the pollsters gone?
    Incompetence got them every one
    When will they ever learn?
    When will they ever learn?

  2. Is this the longest period between polls in the last few decades?

    Was YouGov the winner of the 2016-19 polling season?

    YouGov produced poll results that were on average up to 3 percentage points to the right of the other pollsters. The election in 2019 also produced a result that was around 3 percentage points to the right of the pollsters. That a respected international pollster can enter the Australian market and produce this result in 2017, suggests our regular Australian pollsters may have been missing the mark for quite some time.


    ‘Embarrassed’ pollster ripped up poll that showed Labor losing election

    The robopoll, which was conducted twice and measured voting intention in the key state of Queensland, showed the ALP on a primary vote close to the 26.7 per cent it received in that state, and the Liberal-National Party headed for a “strong victory”.


  3. It’s because the leftists continually shout down everyone else. People just get used to shutting up until they get to the ballot box (or the occasional rogue comment poster on MB).

  4. 🎶 where have all the good men gone
    And where are all their poles?! 🎶

    (With apologies to Bonnie Tyler)