Westpac auction preview: July 13-14

From Westpac Senior Economist, Matthew Hassan:

Given the intense focus on Australia’s housing markets at the moment and in light of our recent commentary around the best way to interpret auction market results (see here) we are now providing short previews each Friday and summary updates the following Monday setting out how results should be viewed.

Key points heading into the July 13-14 weekend –

Last weekend (July 6-7):

  • final ‘unadjusted’ clearance rates: Sydney 71.3%; Melbourne 67.2%
  • slippage between preliminary and final estimates: Sydney -7pts; Melbourne -3.2pts
  • ‘withdrawal rates’: Sydney 8.7%; Melbourne 4.4%
  • estimated seasonally adjusted clearance rates: Sydney 70.3%; Melbourne 66.7%
  • estimated ‘withdrawal adjusted’ clearance rates: Sydney 75.6%; Melbourne 65.3%

This weekend (July 13-14), based on historical averages:

  • assumed slippage between preliminary and final estimates: Sydney -5.5pts; Melbourne -1.5pts
  • seasonal adjustment: Sydney -1ppt; Melbourne -0.4ppts
  • ‘withdrawal rate’ adjustment, deduct difference between observed withdrawal rate and: Sydney 14%; Melbourne 3%

Clearance rates continue to push higher in Sydney, final readings for the latest weekend moving into mid to low 70s. Melbourne has tended to consolidate around the mid 60s.

Latest readings on housing-related buyer sentiment continue to push higher as well, the July update of the Westpac Consumer Sentiment survey showing views on ‘time to buy a dwelling’ rising to the first above average level in four and a half years and price expectations continuing to recover strongly. The gains are against what is a disappointing update on wider sentiment (see here for more detail).

All figures are based on preliminary and final auction results provided by CoreLogic.

For more detailed commentary on Australian Housing market, see our latest report: Westpac Housing Pulse.

Comments

  1. and not a word about volume?
    because it doesn’t matter?
    last year with clearance rate lower by almost 20% more homes got sold yet prices were falling big time

  2. There’s been a couple of strong upwards days to finish this week as we head into the 8-week anniversary of the election.

    I suspect that the post election animal spirit rise in the Corelogic index may be about to start showing in the numbers after 2 months of flatlining. How big it gets or how long it lasts or even if it occurs at all is anybody’s guess. My WAG(tm) is that there will be a rise but it will be sorta like Scott Morrisson’s intellect.