Might as well just put out the press release on automatic pilot:
Australia’s inflation rate, at 1.3% (March quarter), remains well below the Reserve Bank of Australia’s official target range of 2-3%. The unemployment rate, at 5.2%, is unchanged from the previous month yields of benchmark 10-year government bonds have continued to tumble, making new record lows. The RBA Shadow Board’s conviction that the cash rate should remain at the new, low rate of 1.25% equals 48%, while the confidence in a required rate hike equals 21% and in a required rate cut equals 30%.
Based on latest ABS figures, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Australia remained steady at 5.2% (May), coinciding accompanied by a further increase in the labour force participation rate (from 65.8% to 66.0%). Full time employment increased slightly, while part-time employment increased by nearly 40,000. The rising labour force participation rate, ceteris paribus, is a good sign. However, the weak growth in full time employment gives cause for concern, as there is growing evidence that the relatively high part-time employment rate in Australia reflects significant under-employment as well as a high casualisation of the workforce. Neither is helping to boost private consumption expenditure which remains subdued. New data revealed that nominal wages growth, as measured by the seasonally adjusted wage price index, was the same in the March 2019 as in the previous quarter, namely 2.3% year-on-year. Since the inflation rate has previously fallen to 1.3%, real wage growth has accelerated to 1%. While positive, this number still falls short of the long-run average and what is required to sustain a healthy expansion of household consumption expenditure.
