ScoMo’s property miracle stillborn: specufestor lending fizzles
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APRA is out with monthly banking statistics for June, the first clean post-election month. The news is investment mortgages are still on the nose. The stock of loans is still falling:
| ANZ | CBA | MQG | NAB | WBC | BOQ | BEN | SUN | Total | |
| Jun-19 | 76774 | 133761 | 12643 | 104660 | 153525 | 11340 | 12811 | 11756 | 517270 |
| May-19 | 77473 | 133400 | 12532 | 104681 | 153096 | 11320 | 12932 | 11694 | 517128 |
| Apr-19 | 78018 | 133093 | 12465 | 105036 | 152588 | 11332 | 12851 | 11697 | 517080 |
| Mar-19 | 78470 | 132904 | 12372 | 105379 | 152393 | 11333 | 12772 | 11724 | 517347 |
| Feb-19 | 78936 | 132916 | 12320 | 105645 | 152368 | 11352 | 12649 | 11755 | 517941 |
| Jan-19 | 79366 | 132960 | 12223 | 105757 | 152323 | 11364 | 12597 | 11745 | 518335 |
| Dec-18 | 79790 | 133045 | 12103 | 105869 | 152453 | 11366 | 12554 | 11784 | 518964 |
| Nov-18 | 80187 | 132812 | 11938 | 106081 | 152318 | 11534 | 12538 | 11738 | 519146 |
| Oct-18 | 80470 | 132705 | 11791 | 105982 | 152432 | 11318 | 12467 | 11700 | 518865 |
| Sep-18 | 80916 | 132539 | 11602 | 105750 | 152770 | 11346 | 12416 | 11622 | 518961 |
| Aug-18 | 81260 | 132838 | 11407 | 105688 | 152844 | 11336 | 12296 | 11579 | 519248 |
| Jul-18 | 81519 | 132764 | 11091 | 105512 | 153034 | 11347 | 12206 | 11579 | 519052 |
| Jun-18 | 81797 | 132971 | 10679 | 105502 | 153256 | 11319 | 12153 | 11598 | 519275 |
Month on month growth is zero:
| ANZ | CBA | MAC | NAB | WBC | BOQ | BEN | SUN | Total | |
| Jun-19 | -0.9 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | -0.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| May-19 | -0.7 | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Apr-19 | -0.6 | 0.1 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.6 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Mar-19 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.4 | -0.3 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 1.0 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| Feb-19 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 0.8 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| Jan-19 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 1.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| Dec-18 | -0.5 | 0.2 | 1.4 | -0.2 | 0.1 | -1.5 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Nov-18 | -0.4 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Oct-18 | -0.6 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| Sep-18 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | -0.1 |
| Aug-18 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Jul-18 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 3.7 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.0 |
| Jun-18 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 14.0 | 0.5 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
WBC and CBA are trying. NAB is stalled and ANZ still going out of business. The chart:
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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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