ScoMo’s property miracle stillborn: specufestor lending fizzles

APRA is out with monthly banking statistics for June, the first clean post-election month. The news is investment mortgages are still on the nose. The stock of loans is still falling:

ANZ CBA MQG NAB WBC BOQ BEN SUN Total
Jun-19 76774 133761 12643 104660 153525 11340 12811 11756 517270
May-19 77473 133400 12532 104681 153096 11320 12932 11694 517128
Apr-19 78018 133093 12465 105036 152588 11332 12851 11697 517080
Mar-19 78470 132904 12372 105379 152393 11333 12772 11724 517347
Feb-19 78936 132916 12320 105645 152368 11352 12649 11755 517941
Jan-19 79366 132960 12223 105757 152323 11364 12597 11745 518335
Dec-18 79790 133045 12103 105869 152453 11366 12554 11784 518964
Nov-18 80187 132812 11938 106081 152318 11534 12538 11738 519146
Oct-18 80470 132705 11791 105982 152432 11318 12467 11700 518865
Sep-18 80916 132539 11602 105750 152770 11346 12416 11622 518961
Aug-18 81260 132838 11407 105688 152844 11336 12296 11579 519248
Jul-18 81519 132764 11091 105512 153034 11347 12206 11579 519052
Jun-18 81797 132971 10679 105502 153256 11319 12153 11598 519275

Month on month growth is zero:

ANZ CBA MAC NAB WBC BOQ BEN SUN Total
Jun-19 -0.9 0.3 0.9 0.0 0.3 0.2 -0.9 0.5 0.0
May-19 -0.7 0.2 0.5 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.6 0.0 0.0
Apr-19 -0.6 0.1 0.7 -0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 -0.2 -0.1
Mar-19 -0.6 0.0 0.4 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 1.0 -0.3 -0.1
Feb-19 -0.5 0.0 0.8 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.1 -0.1
Jan-19 -0.5 -0.1 1.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.1
Dec-18 -0.5 0.2 1.4 -0.2 0.1 -1.5 0.1 0.4 0.0
Nov-18 -0.4 0.1 1.2 0.1 -0.1 1.9 0.6 0.3 0.1
Oct-18 -0.6 0.1 1.6 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.7 0.0
Sep-18 -0.4 -0.2 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.4 -0.1
Aug-18 -0.3 0.1 2.8 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.7 0.0 0.0
Jul-18 -0.3 -0.2 3.7 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.4 -0.2 0.0
Jun-18 -0.1 0.3 14.0 0.5 -0.3 0.0 1.2 0.2 0.4

WBC and CBA are trying. NAB is stalled and ANZ still going out of business. The chart:

Year on year is now falling at -0.4%:

ANZ CBA MQG NAB WBC BOQ BEN SUN Total
Jun-19 -6.1 0.6 18.4 -0.8 0.2 0.2 5.4 1.4 -0.4
May-19 -5.4 0.6 36.5 -0.3 -0.4 0.1 7.7 1.0 0.0
Apr-19 -5.0 0.3 39.9 0.2 -0.4 -0.6 7.7 1.2 0.1
Mar-19 -4.7 0.1 41.5 0.3 -0.1 -0.4 7.5 -1.3 0.1
Feb-19 -4.5 0.0 43.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 7.3 -1.3 0.4
Jan-19 -4.2 -0.1 44.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 7.0 -1.4 0.6
Dec-18 -3.8 -0.1 44.9 0.0 1.3 1.4 6.6 -1.3 0.6
Nov-18 -3.3 -0.4 44.4 1.1 1.6 4.1 6.9 -1.8 1.0
Oct-18 -2.8 -0.9 43.4 1.4 1.9 1.5 6.4 -2.1 1.0
Sep-18 -2.0 -1.0 41.2 1.5 2.4 2.0 5.8 -2.1 1.2
Aug-18 -1.5 -1.1 37.5 1.7 2.9 2.0 5.0 -4.1 1.3
Jul-18 -1.4 -1.5 29.5 1.9 3.6 2.2 3.7 -3.2 1.4
Jun-18 -1.2 -4.2 24.4 2.0 4.4 1.5 2.8 -2.1 0.8

On the chart there is a clustering around zero:

There’s certainly no bold rebound here. If anything, this data suggest further house price falls given investors set the marginal price in the property market.

But it is early days for the miracle.

Houses and Holes

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the fouding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.

He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.

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