The NSW Office of State Revenue has released stamp duty data to June, which reveals a massive $1.65 billion (24%) decline over the past year and a $2.3 billion (31%) decline since stamp duty receipts peaked in October 2017:
The latest retracement in stamp duty receipts follows a sharp 23% decline in property transfers in the year to June:
The annual decline in revenue has dwarfed the GFC experience:
It also makes the NSW Budget’s latest forecasts look optimistic:
That said, with more rate cuts likely, APRA lowering its interest rate buffer and smaller bank capital requirements, and first home buyer stimulus due to come into effect from 1 January 2020, Sydney’s housing market should soon bottom.