Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

The Shanghai Composite is setting the mood here in Asia by treading water around a tight range, although it briefly dipped below the 3000 point barrier earlier in the session it looks sit to finish a very dull week indeed. The Hang Seng Index is also putting in yet another scratch session, little changed at 28827 points, still unable to make good on the previous breakout but still holding on above the previous set of highs at 28500:

Japanese share markets are treading water with no leads or economic events to go on although the recent household spending survey was much better than expected. The Nikkei 225 is up only a handful of points currently at 21719 points, still unable to make a substantive  new session high.  The USJDPY pair is very slowly melting high, almost up to the 107.80 level as traders await the return of the US desk, hopefully with all their fingers still attached after playing with fireworks overnight:

The ASX200 made another new record high today and is currently up 0.7% to 6768 points, as everyone goes all in on another new bull market with no risks whatsoever /s. The Australian dollar is putting currency traders to sleep, barely moving out of a 10 pip range all day and may wake up later tonight on the NFP print:

S&P and Eurostoxx futures are up slightly with US stocks returning from the Independence Day holiday overnight (although they may need to tip Russian tea in the harbour next time around). The four hourly chart of the S&P500 shows the market wanting to punch through the 3000 point level with no one in the way, except fundamentals of course:

The economic calendar finishes the week with the most important event on the calendar – US unemployment or non-farm payrolls. Have a good weekend!

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)



    • you bit me to it.. Let’s see if falls continue overnight and for rest of the week and so on. If IO drops below $60 it will start to look ugly and we will see Scomo, this time joined by Josh boy, shitting his pants again.

    • you bit me to it.. Let’s see if falls continue overnight and for rest of the week and so on. If IO drops below $60 it will start to look ugly and we will see Scomo, this time joined by Josh boy, sh1tt1ng his pants again.

    • AUD already sliding but what I don’t like about it is dragging gold with it. I am in gold stocks at the moment as I can’t see value in anything else.

      • I don’t see much effect today on currencies or gold tbh. Maybe everyone is on hold ore-NFP.

        I would think some initial declines in IO prices are already priced in the AUD (in the sense that AUD hasn’t spiked on the IO price spike, so it shouldn’t dip much on the initial IO decline). Give it time though…!

    • haroldusMEMBER

      Can you imagine the whining if they tried that here? It would be like a thousand 737-Maxes trying to land at once at Badgery’s creek

      • haroldusMEMBER

        I joke, but it’s fcken enraging.

        I had a rant at my missus this afternoon after she want to a talk at Town Hall (I think) last night that said STEM was not the answer for workers and the first people to be automated will be basic coders.

        Cue harry going on and on about how lucky we are to a) be importing millions of vibrant coders and b) How unlucky we are that we can’t train coders ourselves etc etc etc the nation’s government has betrayed us etc etc this is why we need to get the Irish citizenship for the daughter etc etc

        Poor missus. But it’s her fault.

        I have offered to buy her an MB membership many times.

    • The Chinese have been doing this for years all over asia. The fake Monks too. They are everywhere in KL.

    • Put them to work wearing Green Peace shirts or 1 of those other useless charities that employ backpackers to try and guilt you into giving them money, even though those dirty hippies don’t contribute any themselves.

    • Oldies taking it in turns hotbedding it at Reusa’s high density urban cage kennels is hardly a surprise.

      No mention of the party supplies they brought on the way in to Australia to secure the rental bond?
      Surely they must have shipped a couple of tins of baby formula back at some stage during their working holiday?
      Must be fake news.

  2. I know few people mentioned looking at TRY. Just be careful as I can see one director dumping shares. Might mean nothing but it could mean they aren’t fining additional resources in South America. I sold at small loss few weeks ago.

  3. BrentonMEMBER

    2-Yr Bond Yields
    USA: +1.76%
    Italy: -0.05%
    Japan: -0.22%
    Ireland: -0.45%
    Spain: -0.46%
    Portugal: -0.49%
    Sweden: -0.59%
    Belgium: -0.60%
    Austria: -0.66%
    Finland: -0.67%
    France: -0.68%
    Denmark: -0.69%
    Netherlands: -0.72%
    Germany: -0.75%
    Swiss: -0.90%

      • What is everyone losing the plot about, what some think there store of price should be immutable – ????

      • @Skip yes I do farkin, it’s my money farikin, and I busted my arse farkin to earn it. Why should someone be able to diminish my efforts like that? This is why I don’t trust Big Government farkin’.

      • A. its not yours or did you print it in your basement and then get others to use it as a medium of exchange.

        B. its not an asset.

        C. I would have to see what you call work and how the money was made to render an opinion on if it was hard or ethically earned.

        D. I thought Capitalism was about production and accepting the ups and downs of fortune and not hording until some down turn to buy assets below value and effortlessly ride the wave back up [waves at EL TRUMPO].

      • Sigh, I know I’ve opened a can of worms here.

        A.) Does anyone really own anything? Or do the men with gun’s determine that?
        B.) What is these days? I guess a business or commercial real estate or something that produces an income?
        C.) Is anything ethical these days?
        D.) Some of us just want a home at fair value and are not in it to ride the wave of capital gains. In fact I want to be free from debt to be free to start a business that employs and builds something. I hate speculating in many ways it feels like gambling and I don’t enjoy gambling.

      • Lastly whats this “BIG” Government thingy your banging on about, do you mean the pro business [waves at Powell memo] Corporatist third way – Washington consensus free market government during the neoliberal period- ????

      • Just saw your last reply, sorry no worms, just facts.

        Personally I think you have lingering dramas with your past self and some residual feed back loops to Libertarian narratives and your unfulfilled desires – e.g. see previous indoctrination which dictates conceptualization of reality i.e. The Road from Mont Pelerin – Walter Lippmann Colloquium et al.

        I thought the Hudson link might have been instructive …. sigh …. atomistic individualism … see Lars …

      • That one …..

        Wellie the only way to sort that is politically by supporting those that advance a counter narrative to the dominate one, hence why I side with post Keynesianism and MMT.

      • Lmmao mate put it this way ….

        After being here in Oz a few years my family in the U.S. inquired how things were going with work, I replied well, they asked how much I was pulling in and I said 100k, their response was …. yeah in ozzie dollars and stuff is more expensive.

        Then I had to remind them of all the public goods that were on offer compared to the U.S. of A.

    • Now is the time not to pay down debt!!…borrow as much as you can if you can get negative rates…pay to borrow!…and if you have money they take it!….the world is flipping like the north and south poles….haha

      • haroldusMEMBER

        We need Janet and Peachy to be PMs of our respective countries! While I would be concerned about the level of inappropriate language and concepts (and fear of mockery), if we could find a way to harness their innate psychopathy to the good of the nation, we would be winning a global points victory in no time!

        (Too much Civ VI)

      • I can just imagine the next election slogans! They say 3 word slogans work best. Like “High Taxing Bill”. Well how about Peachy’s best “BIG DUMB RULES!”..

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      I looooooove bonds.

      Wierd you didn’t list the Aus 2YR: +.9500% roughly.
      Thinking about getting the following peronalised plates:


      • Some seem to forget that Gov bonds are a hangover from the gold standard and a bit of tribute [free money] to [C]apital, its a political [ideological] choice to do so and not one of core system architecture necessity.

      • Lol @ jelmech. Now you mention it my wife is on at me to get rid of some of those old undies I’ve got that must be about ten years old… little does she know I can redeem them for $100 each and then buy some that are good for 30 years!

      • SweeperMEMBER

        not in this case. there can’t be a bubble in bonds because any excess demand implies inadequate demand for GDP which validates bond prices.

      • Sorry was not suggesting a bubble, just sentiment, something I watched with Gross when huge sums were Gov sourced.

    • you entitled types, humble bragging about still having your left nut, are such utter utter bastards…..just sayin’….falsetto…..and the inference that you still possess the right nut is …is….gaaah! triggered

  4. The Traveling Wilbur

    Speaking of bumper stickers and plates, one for Centre Alliance reservation policy:

    : GOTGAS :

    PS Centre Alliance? WTF? Are they just trolling for the Jedi vote?

    • Lol, bloody cocky’s. I get the lot come through my area at various times of the year. The black ones are the worse. You should see the pile of branches they chew off the white cedar in my front yard. Bloody things just seem to like chewing the sh1t out of the tree for fun. They don’t eat anything, just lop branches off it for about a month, then they just piss off.

      At least cockatoos are interesting and funny to watch. Unlike the god damn crows that wake me up every morning with sounds like they are strangling a baby. I don’t think there is another noise that grates on my nerves as much as bloody crows (well, ravens here in Perth) Their caw is so goddam loud and carries so far it’s irritating to the extreme. And the last few years the fvckers seem to have had bumper breeding seasons. I even bought a slingshot to try and stop the cvnts sitting in the trees in my yard and driving me insane.

      • iffen dem buzzard cockies were dealing with a eucalypt tree they knew, the result would be a wound on the tree that is chewed out for a nesting hollow in a coupla years…..

      • Timmeh i know what you mean, over here the sulphur crested cockies rip the edges off the deck railing for fun, tear at the gutters and pull the rubber seals off the street lights, leaving the big plastic covers dangling and broken. Annoying as f#ck but hey, that’s the Bush Capital for you, and we do have a huge amount of bird life to watch. And the cockies are fun when they’re in a good mood, clowning on the high wires and they look great soaring in the early morning sun.

        Jelmech i hadn’t realised that was the useful outcome behind their wood gouging instinct – thanks.

  5. John R, be significantly more if we weren’t hellbent on killing ourselves or disease playing it’s natural role. We’re only only on pause.

  6. Been looking at a stack of houses that have been for sale 3-6 months with no one at inspections all under offer this week. Credit or confidence or boners or something is up no doubt

    • Is RE sorta like the Robin Williams Mister Robinson ‘Reality What A Trip’ skit where he puts Mister Hamster in the microwave – ???? – and that begs the question of why anyone would do that …

    • Could be, Charlie.

      That said around here “under offer” is often a ruse to flush out buyers. You know… build the FOMO.

      I would take anything agents are doing in the market with a nut sack full of salt right now.