Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

The G20 and the trade war truce between China and the US has lifted risk spirits despite a slew of very poor manufacturing PMIs released in Asia today. The Yuan has jumped against USD with the USDCNH at a near three month low while the Aussie dollar has tanked on the Chinese PMI print, Yen continues to selloff helping domestic stocks in Japan.

The Shanghai Composite has lifted over 2.2% to close well above the 3000 point barrier that held it back all of last week while the Hang Seng Index is closed for a holiday.

Japanese share markets also bounced past the 2% barrier with the Nikkei 225 closing 2% higher to start the week on a much firmer note at 21729 points.  A lot of the positive mood is due to a selloff in Yen with the USJDPY pair pushing right through the 108 handle and establishing itself well above the dominant downtrend line (black sloping line) but this does look too overbought in the short term:

The ASX200 is the odd one out, only lifting about 0.4% despite a much weaker Australian dollar, closing at 6648 points.  The Australian dollar gapped higher on the Monday morning open but this was a false dawn as it sold off sharply on the back of the Chinese PMI and other prints, pushing back down below the 70 handle and signalling that the rally of the last two weeks maybe over:

S&P and Eurostoxx futures are both up at least 1% higher reflecting the positive mood following the G20 summit with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 chart showing a big breakout above the previous weekly highs at the 2970 point level that should translate into a new rally here:

The economic calendar starts the week with two big ones – German unemployment and the latest US ISM Manufacturing prints.

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  1. The Traveling Wilbur

    Thank goodness the new Banking Industry Code of Practice comes into effect today. We’re safe now. We no longer have anything to worry about from the Big 4 et al.

  2. The Traveling Wilbur

    Congrats Tom Gleeson.

    Best Logies campaign and acceptance speech ever. The award winner who didn’t want it awarded we had to have.

  3. The Traveling Wilbur

    And finally, Macquarie is, seriously, axing its credit cards’ access to gambling and lottery sites. And venues.

    Have no fear though, you can still fund your CFD holding costs with them. Macquarie aren’t entirely stupid.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      A couple of years now. Started when he began talking about shafting Billy Slater.

    • He doesn’t coach the side, he imbues it, as he does all things Queensland. Bob is to QLD as the gods are to the Stoics of old.

      “According to Cicero (ND II 3), the Queenslanders recognized four main questions in theology: First they prove that Katter exists, next they explain his nature, then they show that the world is governed by him, and lastly that he cares (only) for the fortunes of QLDkind. The existence of Katter involves the fact that he governs, or rather is, the cosmos, which explains why some of the proofs for the existence of Katter simply amount to proofs that the cosmos itself is a rationally ordered living being.”

      • None of the commenters here likely do, yet you seem to work it into every comment you make. What’s your (irrelevant) point?

      • Calling a party morons … when he has zero depth on the topic and zero exposure regardless … because it tweaks his ideological biases is not a sound methodology for formulating an opinion Tim. The effect is quite the opposite IMO.

      • Still no explanation of what point you are trying to make. A non-sequitur masquerading as a response.

      • Point is elusive for some it seems, he does not vote on American policies and as such has no exposure to any outcome. This is made more ridiculous due to lack of understanding any of the nuance involved between universal or single payer, but is compelled to lump all together anyway. Considering all this its hard to understand the level of emotive state on display, unless compelled by some rigid authoritarian ideological bias to dictate to others.

        Its sorta like some banging on about china stealing stuff when the elites in America freely and actively promoted policies which diminished workers rights and claims to productivity, offshoring to China over some decades, and got spectacularly wealthy in the process.

    • For example do you know which support universal or single payer and what the difference is between them.

    • Considering how much our pig swilling politicians earn, I find it hard to believe they really want to stop the third round of cuts going through as they are personally going to benefit from it.

    • haroldusMEMBER

      Oh man that one Starc swung in to stokes (where he drops his bat in disgust). Normally he swings it the other way.

      I’m pretty sure I’d be “backing away to square” if I was facing.

      • Definitely not the economy, the Libs reckon it’s strong so must be. It’s those reached employees, more vibrants to drive down wages is what’s required.