Gottiboff: Property is surging!

The Gottiboff is at it again spruiking property:

Six forces are driving the market:

  • The low interest rates…
  • There is a widespread fear of “missing out”…
  • In detached dwellings there is a shortage of supply…
  • They might not admit it publicly, but the banks are now easier with granting loans…
  • Young people are waking up that they can at last use their money from their superannuation…
  • There is a wave of first home buyers waiting for housing minister Michael Sukkar…

In Sydney last night, a jubilant Harry Triguboff said: “The market is improving in all our projects. It started with the election, then quietened down and now is rising again.

…The great danger for the nation is that the forces above will spark another boom and make dwellings that are already hard to finance impossible.

But there are also a few forces holding back property:

  • the HEM will cap credit;
  • unemployment is rising and will keep doing so as construction busts;
  • wages growth will fall away;
  • there is no FOMO after the bust;
  • FHBs do not drive price rises, investors do.

Which leads to the base case that there is no new boom in the offing. Just a soggy rebound.

But I could be wrong so APRA should be readying  macroprudential 3.0 just in case.

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