Via Westpac:
Given the intense focus on Australia’s housing markets at the moment and in light of our recent commentary around the best way to interpret auction market results (seehere) we are now putting out short previews each Friday and summary updates the following Monday setting out how results should be viewed.
Preliminary assessment of auction clearance rates, weekend of June 29-30 –
- preliminary ‘unadjusted’ clearance rates: Sydney 72%; Melbourne 70.6%
- assumed slippage between preliminary and final estimates: Sydney -5.5pts; Melbourne -1.5pts
- seasonal adjustment: Sydney -0.3ppts; Melbourne +0.1ppt
- ‘withdrawal rate’: Sydney 7.9%; Melbourne 2.3%
- ‘withdrawal rate’ adjustment, difference between observed withdrawal rate and average: Sydney 6ppts; Melbourne –1.5ppts
- estimated final ‘withdrawal adjusted’ clearance rate: Sydney 72.3%; Melbourne 70%
Preliminary clearance rates were again firm across both the Sydney and Melbourne markets coming in at just over 70% and with withdrawal rates materially below average in Sydney. That should negate the typically larger slippage between preliminary and final clearance rates meaning our ‘withdrawal adjusted’ clearance rate should land around 70% in both Sydney and Melbourne. The result suggests clearance rates are continuing to improve, from the low to mid 60s to the mid to high 60s range. If this proves to be a sustained move it would be broadly consistent with modest price gains.
Note that all figures are based on preliminary and final auction results provided by CoreLogic.
