ANZ job ads down but not out

I missed this release yesterday, so better late than never:

ANZ Australian Job Ads bounced back in June after falling more than 8% in May.

The ‘Holiday-year effect’ in late April and the timing of the election appear to have been responsible for much of the decline in May, and the rebound in June can be seen as an unwinding of that effect. In seasonally adjusted terms, job ads gained 4.6% m/m but fell by 9.1% y/y. In trend terms, job ads fell 1.4% m/m and 11.1% y/y.

ANZ’s Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

“Job ads in June jumped 4.6%, reversing a bit more than half of the sharp drop in May. The gain was one of the biggest in 18 months. We don’t think it necessarily represents a turn in the overall downward trend, however. Job ads plunged more than 8% in May as a result of the timing of the election and the late April ‘holiday year’ effect (when Easter and ANZAC Day were close together). The subsequent jump in job ads in June represents only a partial recovery from that weakness, suggesting that the overall trend is still downwards. This points to slowing employment growth and rising unemployment. If confirmed by the actual employment data, then the RBA will likely react by lowering the cash rate yet again.”

Still a sombre reading, with unemployment set to rise.

Unconventional Economist

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.

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