Moody’s: No house price recovery until 2021

Via Moody’s:

Second-Quarter 2019 Housing Forecast Report

The May CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index results show the national housing market continuing its correction, led by Sydney and Melbourne. The national index for home values has fallen for almost two years. The decline has been sharper in house values compared with apartment values; house values have fallen almost 11% from their peak in mid-2017, while apartment values are down almost 7% from their peak. House values across Sydney declined 5.5% in 2018 and are forecast to fall a further 9.6% in 2019 before a slow recovery in 2020. Apartment values are set to decline by 7.3% in 2019, followed by a forecast 4% expansion in 2020.

House values in Melbourne are forecast to decline a sharp 10.8% in 2019, building on the modest 0.3% decline in 2018. The decline in 2019 in Greater Melbourne’s housing market is broad-based, with particular falls in the Inner regions. Melbourne’s apartment market is also expected to endure a modest correction in 2019 and 2020.

House values in Brisbane are forecast to see a correction in 2019, with particular weakness in South Brisbane house values. A relatively mild correction is forecast for apartment values in 2019, with a 0.7% forecast decline in 2019, following a 1% fall in 2018. This year is predicted to be the worst for Brisbane’s apartment market before it transitions to a projected 5.6% rise in 2020.

House values in Perth will likely decline 6.9% in 2019, followed by a small recovery in 2020. A slow housing recovery in 2020 is likely as the local economy improves thanks to its population growth. Meanwhile, Adelaide’s housing market will continue its stable run, with house values forecast to rise 0.4% in 2019 after a 1.9% gain in 2018. As for Hobart, the housing market is likely at the end of its bull run, with house values forecast to rise 2.8% in 2019, followed by modest corrections in 2020 and 2021. Similarly, the Hobart apartment market will likely decelerate from 12.2% in 2018 to 4.9% in 2019.

That’s essentially no real price recovery until 2021. Full report.

Houses and Holes

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the fouding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.

He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.

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