Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Despite the positive lead from Wall Street, Asian markets are very cautious going into the G20 summit this weekend in Osaka, with traders awaiting the foot in mouth US President to probably foul up the talks. The USD has barely moved, while the Aussie has briefly peeped over the 70 cent level as local stock traders take profits going into the weekend.

The Shanghai Composite has been unable to turn its recent bounce into a sustained trend, slipping almost 0.6% to be well back below the 3000 point barrier while the Hang Seng Index has fallen half a percent to 28476 points. This is disappointing given that the daily chart was a presaging a breakout following the recent small dip after almost making a new daily high previously:

Japanese share markets were very cautious given the mild rally in Yen overnight with the Nikkei 225 falling around 0.2% to finish a lacklustre week at 212758 points. The USJDPY pair has stabilised following last night’s retracement from the dominant downtrend line (black sloping line) and will probably oscillate between the moving average band tonight:

The ASX200 had a very poor session to finish the week, falling 0.7% to close at 6618 points in late afternoon profit taking across the banks and miners.  The Australian dollar is pushing higher having now breached the 70 handle – just – going into tonight’s session in what has been a very low volatile and nice uptrend:

S&P and Eurostoxx futures are both flat reflecting the cautious mood going into this weekend’s G20 summit with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 chart showing a very small retracement back to a point of control nearer 2940 points:

The economic calendar concludes the week with the latest EZ wide CPI print while we get the first step of the next US GDP print, personal consumption expenditure. Its the G20 summit this weekend and I’ll see you all next week as I step in for Leith on holidays.

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  1. New Zealand housing speculators ‘flee for the hills’ …

    First-home buyers bigger part of housing market than investors for first time since records began … Susan Edmunds … Stuff New Zealand

    First-home buyers borrowed more money in May than investors – the first time they have been ahead since records began.

    There was a total of $6.47 billion borrowed from banks in May to buy houses, a decrease of $120 million at the same time last year.

    Investors borrowed $1.14b and first-home buyers $1.15b.

    The Reserve Bank started its data series in 2014 and this is the first time that first-home buyers have borrowed more than mortgaged investors.

    In August 2014, first-home buyers borrowed just $392m, compared to $2.4b for investors. … read more via hyperlink above …
    … Housing speculators are acutely aware that the days of grossly irresponsible housing inflation ( central and local government – led poverty creation programmes ) are over … as illustrated within this recent Interest Co NZ article …

    … extract …

    … However the trend of falling sales is not a new one.

    The number of national sales in March has fallen compared to the previous March every year since 2017 and has now dropped by 27% since 2016.

    The all time peak for March, since began collating the figures in 1992, was in 2004 when 11,292 properties were sold, compared with 6938 in March this year. … read more via hyperlink above …
    … The ‘flight to affordability’ is well and truly underway … check the latest REINZ Residential Report and Performance Urban Planning .

  2. GeordieMEMBER

    Anyone holding YANK as exposure to USD will have been rather happy with themselves today.

    • proofreadersMEMBER

      The message is the banks do not (repeat: do not) want retail deposits? People are belatedly getting that message?

      • Not is society goes cashless. You will never be able to take your money out of a bank…

    • john6007MEMBER

      16 appartments on 622m2, what awfully vibrant place to live that will be. Note for Gav & his cars, I’ve got two sheds with a covered floor area 10% more than that block size but it’s not a very vibrant place to live.

    • Currently a vacant block

      How is it a vacant block when I can see a house in the photo. It will probably cost $50k to demolish the house. What a waste of materials.

      14 x 2 bedrooms and 2 x 1 bedrooms apartments over 3 levels.

      The property was on sale in June 2017 also. I wonder what happened.

      Clyde Lobo

      Ray White – Noble Park

      Ridiculous. Real estate agents being imported to sell properties to other imported men while unemployed Aussies are told to go and pick fruit. May as well ban foreigners from working as real estate agents.

  3. How the rich get richer – money in the world economy | DW Documentary

    Exploding real estate prices, zero interest rate and a rising stock market – the rich are getting richer. What danger lies in wait for average citizens?

    For years, the world’s central banks have been pursuing a policy of cheap money. The first and foremost is the ECB (European Central Bank), which buys bad stocks and bonds to save banks, tries to fuel economic growth and props up states that are in debt. But what relieves state budgets to the tune of hundreds of billions annoys savers: interest rates are close to zero.

  4. CEC released one of their videos tonight which was almost immediately blocked by “BBC”. With over 7000 CEC subscribers there were only 29 views for that video which means nobody watched it to completion. Yet somehow “BBC” was able to watch the video and ascertain that it had copyright material.