Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets haven’t reacted at the same level as Wall Street’s falls overnight, with some moderate buyers stepping in as Treasury yields lift a little higher. Gold fell back towards the $1400USD per ounce level after its recent epic ride while Bitcoin put on more gains as its trajectory goes SpaceX like!

The Shanghai Composite is treading water, down a few points as it hovers below the 3000 point barrier while the Hang Seng Index has bounced slightly, up 0.2% to 28230 points. The daily chart is stabilising a little bit hit at the 28000 point level and may still retrace further but there is still support building:

Japanese share markets fell again despite a weaker Yen throughout today’s session with the Nikkei 225 falling 0.5% to a weekly low at 21086 points. The USJDPY pair has bounced back off the mid 106’s after falling sharply yesterday and maybe setting up here for a swing higher, but will require more positive risk sentiment first:

The ASX200 had a much milder selloff than expected, losing only 0.25% to 6640 points. The Australian dollar is pushing higher following the RBNZ hold at its meeting this morning as the AUDNZD almost hit a monthly low. This looks like a concerted move higher with the Kiwi with the 70 handle the short target:

S&P are steady while Eurostoxx futures are down about 0.3% with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 chart showing a hesitation to drop below the previous breakout point at 2920 points. Last night saw it fall below monthly support at 2940 so this is tenuous – watch out below:

The economic calendar is busy tonight, starting off with the BOE Governors having a chin wag as the market opens in The City, then the one-two punch of US durable goods and trade balance prints. Finally there’s the DOE inventory report plus some Treasury auctions to watch as the bond market heats up.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


    • Air-guitar next. Have a look at my air-Stratocaster… it’s awesome… I have a few more at home, but willing to part with a couple for the appropriate price!

    • That article, which is on rhe national broadcaster, says that breakdancing has been “provincially” accepted as an olympic sport.

      Call me crazy, but I reckon that should be “provisionally”. Not that using the right words matters any more in rhe MSM. Or telling the truth, or anything at all, really.

      As for the idea of breakdancing in the olympics? I reckon that clearly demonstrates just what a grossly corrupt and stupid thing the whole olympic movement is.

      • it’s obviously a typo – “provincially” pertains to the new Olympic sport of loogie-hawking.

      • Sounds like exactly what a bunch of 70 year olds would pick to try to appeal to the Yoof Market.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        it’s obviously not a typo – “provincially” pertains to the new Olympic sport of locale speciality cheese-eating.

        To be won by the surrender-monkeys, no doubt.


      • The Traveling Wilbur


        You are correct. I have made a real bleu. However, I find that such fabricated social constructs whey heavily on my freedom of expression. And as such…

        I’m off to go-fun-myself to generate some free advertising (via having them shut me down) for the real campaign I already have lined-up with ZH to free economic-blogs everywhere from such swiss cheese logic so we can once again enjoy the Crema of critical thought unimpeeded by the unwashed-rinds of ignorance.

      • Sorry must be a private video setting? He’s very much a BTC bull, bought in at pennies on the dollar. Crowing a lot lately. 😀

      • I think I found his video. Didn’t watch it all.
        He is rather economically naive, it seems to me.

        Which is not to say that btc shan’t rocket some more. It’s jist probbaly not for the reasons he recites.

  1. Solar panels and batteries stolen!

    13 hours ago

    Whyalla City Council

    a 300W solar panel and associated cabling, a couple of Leoch Powerhouse EV 6/260 deep cycle batteries, a solar light and associated small solar panels. Also snaffled was a “Power Cube Box” that included a regulator, circuit breakers, 12 volt sockets, Anderson plug and USB ports, and a Sundaya Solar Converter Hub.

    It would not happen in Singapore:

    Singapore’s crime rate is so low that many shops don’t even lock up

    In 2016, the island nation’s police reported 135 total days without any crimes including snatch-theft, house break-ins and robbery.

  2. The Traveling Wilbur

    News just in from JJJ.

    “stoked” – as in ‘stoked that someone is taking advantage of this tax-payer funded opportunity’ – is back in the popular lexicon.

    Yes, JJJ.

    I shall continue to drop such knowledge-nuggets as my path continues on this journey.

    There are some top Australian artists getting regular airings on this station. As long as you can tolerate ‘blissful-ignoringness’ for the rest of it it’s worth a listen for them. They are gooood. Really talented. I imagine it’s cyclical. It certainly was when “stoked” was last in use.

    I am confused by (at least) one thing however… how come Goodnights is programmed *every* night of the month?

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      10 more pips and I’ll finally have called the AUD to a handle correctly! Last week!!

      (I think this puts me level with H&H on AUD, and already there on housing (Aus) – just IO and housing (Chn)* to go.)

      *which really should not be hard. at all. (hint: up. up MB. up).

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      It’s nice to have a parade closed down because terror and not because the main character reminds someone of a pen1s they once saw.

    • Jesus Christ, we’ve officially gone full retard.

      I’m astounded at the number of lollypop men I see when someone is working on the fvcking footpath, not even the road! And now we have to have anti-terrorism plans for a goddam street parade in bumfvck nowhere? Lordy help this country, it’s Idiocracy on steroids.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      This is what happen when nobody wants to take responsibility for risk assessment : it defaults to the highest rank.

    • haroldusMEMBER

      I do wonder, does the vibrancy dividend equal or exceed the actual $ costs (irrespective of other costs)?

      • Kew is blue chip as you can get in Melbourne (outside of Toorak I’d say). Lots of Mansions etc.. but interestingly they are not finishing them, where they would get a Premium price I’d imagine.

      • Gavin, that is the old Kew cottages and psych hospital site- a fair way from the mansions, even if it is Kew.
        Has been built out with lots of stuff close together, not fantastic quality.
        The tower you can see to the right is the old psych hospital – turned into very expensive and very overpriced apartments perhaps 20 years ago.
        I visited that hospital as a student; Dickensian doesn’t even begin to describe the state of it. I had never realised you could treat people so badly and call it care.

      • Thanks JS for the insight. I didn’t know the history. Sounds like the more things change the more they stay the same.
        On the flip side and talking of potential bull traps (watching Martin North’s latest video with a broker).
        125 Sycamore Street, Caulfield South, Vic 3162
        $900,000 – $990,000
        Agent quoted range. But sold for $1,228,000

        It did seem a little cheap for the area, given that $900k was what semi-detached places were selling for a little while ago. But I don’t think it’s worth $1.228m either. Go figure.

      • Might be my night for information,
        We live about 500 metres from that place, in Elsternwick.
        I’d say underquoted by agent initially ( bearing in mind all real estate prices are insane currently).
        A very popular area with the local Jewish community, and very close to a large and active synagogue.
        I think that would push it up a bit- but nothing is currently cheap around there.

      • Jevons ghostMEMBER

        Lots of angry ghosts in that place. Why anyone would want to live in a place like that boggles my mind. Money grubbers “renovated” part of the old Royal Newcastle Hospital a few years back – turned the wards into apartments. Similar scenario.

      • Thanks JS, I know the area quite well, my mum used to live near the corner of North and Hawthorn Rd. I agree it was a little under quoted (for the area) but didn’t think it would go that high!

  3. BrentonMEMBER

    Deutsche Bank last Friday:

    Quantative Easing (QE)… we believe this has already started with the RBA appearing active in the repo market to extend tenor and push down BBSW. Supporting banks with low-cost funding doesn’t come without broader ramifications?

  4. Mining BoganMEMBER

    So I need the Kiwis to roll the Pakis and also that nice Williamson boy to score 170+.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Now that siht they can bring onnnnnn. Please.

      Make a nice change from things like: trade war causing markets to go up.

    • Geoff Lemon’s book on the sandpaper incident spends a chapter fleshing out Warner. Not in attempt to excuse him but to show that there is so much more than the brash antagonist and also why attack is the default setting. I highly recommend reading it in tandem with Gideon Haigh’s autopsy of Cricket Australia.

      • The Traveling Wilbur




        nuff said.

        Seems fair?
        PS just kidding about Clarke. He’s just intolerable.

  5. The Traveling Wilbur

    Falou Funding TOPS $2m.

    And… in the above article… a bunch of people have complained to the charities commission about people giving money to a rugby player, or a person of colour, or a I can’t figure it out… as Mr Falou isn’t a charity. Dimwits. Seriously. Do you have to be clinically brain-dead to veer fake-left, or does it just help?

    • drsmithyMEMBER

      If only the fake-Christians cared as much about the poor and homeless as they do about judging people’s bedroom activities and annoying lefties…

      People are concerned that perhaps defending Mr Folau’s contract dispute does not match the charitable purpose for which the ACL is supposedly established.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        You mean the purposes of spreading Christianity and preaching the tenants of the bible? Those purposes?

        Yeah. Completely outside their mandate. Let’s ban them for funding those nice people who say “Good morning.” to me on the way to work on Fridays too.

        Jesus. Wept.

        This is not, as far as most people are concerned, a contract dispute. 2 million dollars in donations is evidence of that.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        Yeah. Completely outside their mandate. Let’s ban them for funding those nice people who say “Good morning.” to me on the way to work on Fridays too.

        Leave the poor straw man alone.

        Jesus. Wept.

        He probably would.

        This is not, as far as most people are concerned, a contract dispute. 2 million dollars in donations is evidence of that.

        Pretty sure what the law says is more important than what people have been told to think by their favourite outrage generators.

        Folau’s religious freedoms are not being constrained by the state (obvious since he hasn’t been charged with any crime), nor were they an issue for RA until they turned to attacking homosexuality (again, self-evident).

        So clearly “religious freedom” is not an issue here.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Um, it was you who raised the issue of “people” and “judgement”.

        I’m only trying to explain to you why “people” are doing what you don’t seem to like. Just because you don’t like it doesn’t mean it’s not happening.

        Let’s take homosexuality out of the equation and see if it is easier for you to understand then.

        If Bob lives next to a Church/Mosque and wants to start a go-fund-me to fund a campaign to stop the multiple times during a 24-hour period he is disturbed by bells/call-to-prayer going off (because he works nights) and his campaign is shutdown on the basis of religious freedoms and he gets the atheist society to fund another one, then a lot of people are going to give him money. Even if they like bells/male-ulalation.

        I realise you don’t see the two ‘campaigns’ as equivalent, but a lot of other people do. To the extent of $2m dollars and counting. Not all of them are homophobes. That’s just facts.

        That you might disagree with any of that is meaningless. It’s what’s happening.

        You may as well argue that Trump shouldn’t be Pres because the people who voted for him were conned/stupid/jerry-mandered. You might be right, but you still need to deal that they wanted to vote for him in thr first place (i.e. did not want to vote.for Hillary, or Shortface).

      • Seems a case of victim status e.g. whom is the biggest or has the largest claim on being victimized.

        For that matter I don’t see one side telling the other … the consequences of its authoritarian master … what they will be doing for eternity and by proxy [funny how that works] their less than human or unclean status. For that matter how that classification sets up or enables treatment of the lessor state humans.

        Strange logic to argue being victimized for not being allowed to sit as judge and jury [proselytize] over others, but then again a lot of that was baked in back in antiquity [tm].

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        Um, it was you who raised the issue of “people” and “judgement”.

        And it was you who called people “dimwits” for having an opinion you don’t understand and don’t like so… what, exactly ?

        Let’s take homosexuality out of the equation and see if it is easier for you to understand then.

        Folau was turfed for being a homophobic d!ckhead.
        The ACL is an organisation obsessed with marginalising and bullying non-heterosexuals.
        You can’t take homosexuality out of the equation. If you did, literally none of this would be happening.

        I realise you don’t see the two ‘campaigns’ as equivalent, but a lot of other people do.

        Saying so doesn’t mean they are. Your hypothetical situation bears no discernable relationship to what’s going on.

        That you might disagree with any of that is meaningless. It’s what’s happening.

        And… Consequently I’m not allowed to have an opinion ? Or I shouldn’t express it ? Or my opinion should be summarily dismissed as invalid because people voicing religious beliefs should be free from criticism ? What’s your point ?

      • Sounds like you got mouth full baby batter Doc and a Johnny Cash song burning ring of fire pummelling your gluteus maximus L0L