Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Risk sentiment is falling quickly here in Asia with most share markets taking a dive. with bids in Kiwi and Yen as other safe havens like Treasuries get a bid, the 10 year falling below 2% again. It looks like another poor session on Wall Street tonight with no positive catalysts forthcoming as geopolitical tensions remain high.

The Shanghai Composite has fallen over 1%, retracing swiftly back below the 3000 point barrier while the Hang Seng Index has moved even further, down 1.2% to 28170 points. The daily chart had been trying to build above last weeks breakout but an inability to make any new session highs above 28600 was telling:

Japanese share markets are surprisingly resilient despite a much stronger Yen with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.43% lower to 21164 points. The USJDPY pair has followed Monday’s weak start with a flop here in today’s session, falling straight below the 107 handle in a safe haven run:

The ASX200 remains the best in the region, but its all relative, as it fell 0.15% to 6658 points. The Australian dollar is treading water with all the action in its Kiwi brother, stuck here below the 70 handle and unable to make a new session high since overnight action kept it steady:

S&P and Eurostoxx futures are down about 0.3% ot so with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 chart showing an inability to push higher as price hovers around the Friday high at 2960 point or so. Watch for a flop back to monthly support at 2940 or so:

The economic calendar ramps up tonight with the latest US house price indices, plus consumer confidence for June, but the big one to watch will be Fed Prez Powell’s talk on monetary policy.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


  1. New Folau fundraising on the ACL site over $900k as at 440pm. Amazing.

    Take that left wing censors. Folks have been wanting to strike back and in Israel they have found a vehicle.

    • BrentonMEMBER

      Props to Izzy for playing all these suckers for fools. Don’t spend it all at once.

      • GoFundMe has decided to refund the $700k to the donors.

        As for the ACL one, if the ACL is smart, it will only use the $1 million for the legal defence and not simply give the money to Mr Israel.

        The ACL website has not crashed! Shows how incompetent the private sector is:

        28th Aug 2018

        Ticketek website crash leaves sports fans fuming

        Nov 6, 2018

        THE race that stops a nation was also responsible for bringing down three of Australias betting giants in the final crucial hours

        24 Nov 2016

        the census website crashed earlier this year, leaving millions of Australians unable to lodge their forms.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      +1 For many reasons.

      Though I don’t think any of the reasons anywhere above are any of the ones I have in mind.

      Seems in this country that the right to be a dickhead seems to be more valued than the rights of those speaking up about them.

    • Its almost like the Starving Marvin south park episode [thanksgiving special] bit about spaceship funding …. Marklar ….

    • I don’t agree with Israel’s view but I get your point and agree 100%. I hate when people try to tell me what is good for me.

    • At least with the original go fund me there was a chance he could have done some ‘tards out of their cash. Unfortunately that valuable learning opportunity has expired as this new campaign ensures first and foremost that laywers are being looked after.

      Fail to see how a lobby group passing a useful idiot(TM) branded collection plate around like a football is anything to be celebrated.

      • What your not familiar with the neoliberal base camp PR organ.

        “It starts just after the end of World War Two, when America’s industrial and financial giants, fattened up from war profits, established a new lobbying front group called the Foundation for Economic Education (FEE) that focused on promoting a new pro-business ideology—which it called “libertarianism”— to supplement other business lobbying groups which focused on specific policies and legislation.

        The FEE is generally regarded as “the first libertarian think-tank” as Reason’s Brian Doherty calls it in his book “Radicals For Capitalism: A Freewheeling History of the Modern Libertarian Movement” (2007). As the Buchanan Committee discovered, the Foundation for Economic Education was the best-funded conservative lobbying outfit ever known up to that time, sponsored by a Who’s Who of US industry in 1946.

        A partial list of FEE’s original donors in its first four years includes: The Big Three auto makers GM, Chrysler and Ford; top oil majors including Gulf Oil, Standard Oil, and Sun Oil; major steel producers US Steel, National Steel, Republic Steel; major retailers including Montgomery Ward, Marshall Field and Sears; chemicals majors Monsanto and DuPont; and other Fortune 500 corporations including General Electric, Merrill Lynch, Eli Lilly, BF Goodrich, ConEd, and more.

        The FEE was set up by a longtime US Chamber of Commerce executive named Leonard Read, together with Donaldson Brown, a director in the National Association of Manufacturers lobby group and board member at DuPont and General Motors.

        That is how libertarianism started: As an arm of big business lobbying.”

    • Apparently it cracked the million dollar mark, the lawyers will have every last dollar spent. Falou broke a contractual agreement, to fvcken bad.

      • A case of grandeur – ?????

        Look I might entertain the football star might be a good source for how to pass a ball, but on Mill I think his esoteric bloviations are just that, vacuous head shrinking that requires zero forbearance before opining ones gob.

      • There were also a myriad of constitutional lawyers offering opinions on the citizenship debacle. Look how that ended. We won’t know until the lawyers have drained every last cent.

      • eh ….

        Go savage if you want but leave everyone else out, seems you might have a brother from another ….

      • robert2013MEMBER

        That is your considered legal opinion but that is not the final statement of the law until all appeals have been exhausted.

    • I don’t agree with Israel at all, but I despise being told how to think and people taking some moral high ground to shut others down using their platform to block or ban etc.. So even though I think it’s a waste of money I still see this as a win.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        So your view of “free speech” is that others must be forced to listen without critique or counter to someone’s opinions just because ?

    • drsmithyMEMBER

      Take that left wing censors. Folks have been wanting to strike back and in Israel they have found a vehicle.

      +1. Get the poofs back in the closet, ashamed and fearful where they belong.

    • I’m an atheist and don’t believe in hell so I clearly don’t follow Izzy’s views. But he wasn’t espousing harm to people, just putting his views out there for people to take on or criticise or ignore as they wanted. He didn’t say he wanted to hurt homosexuals, he said “I think this is how they’ll end up”. There’s a big diffference. He also said that drunks and fornicators would burn, and I’m both of those things and I don’t give a sh1t what he thinks of me.

      So bugger (heh) the pompous, precious and over sensitive LGBQWERTY brigade and more power to his arm. Bugger also the virtue signalling rugby officials with their stupid and oppressive contract.

      There’s a pretty good chance that the contract is invalid, and no employer has a right to suppress the free expression of a free mans non-violent opinions. I hope that’s how it pans out.

      I never thought I’d ever see the day when I’d find myself defending the views of a wealthy fundamentalist Christian sportsman boofhead. However, I find Mr Folau a far more sympathetic figure than the oppressive and self-righteous Fake Left virtue signalling thugs who would take all our freedoms away and make us conform to their foul and fake ideology of soi-disant inclusiveness and diversity.

      This is a prime of Orwellian Newspeak. Conform to the accepted view of diversity, or be disemployed, deplatformed, robbed and crushed. Fcuk that noise.

      • The Traveling Wilbur


        Exactly what I’ve been thinking on this. Conflictious maximus prevented words out getting me from. Well said. Especially the Orwellian part.

        Hope it goes to the High Court. It’s the vibe you see.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        Drunks and fornicators don’t get depressed and top themselves because someone called them on it.

        Kids who have one of their idols tell them they’re going to hell do.

        That’s where the social anger comes from.

        RA obviously consider players to be ambassadors for the game and don’t want them abusing and excluding potential customers and new players.

        This has nothing to do with either freedom of religion or speech. He’s a homophobic fuckw1t and RA don’t want one of those on their payroll, representing them as an organisation.

    • And looking as in the time Australia went from 1-173 to 7-285 … Folau went from 1m to 1.5m. Blimey. Seems like the Australian appetite for elite opinion hasn’t changed at all. I have no idea about whether Folau is being advised well or not re his legal fight … but when I see Peter Fitzsimons claim in Fairfax that the people are against Izzy … clearly he has some very motivated support.


    Criminal penalties possible if ANZ directors found to have misled |

    ANZ’s directors, including former prime minister John Key, could face criminal and civil penalties if they are found to have made false or misleading statements to the Reserve Bank. … read more via hyperlink above …

    … Access recent MB postings …

    • Wonder whats happening with Aussie coal at Chinese ports lately? Seems to have gone quiet, must be letting it flow again?

      • Eh, all we need is some sort of a ‘cooling’ of relations between China and India, and Adani will look even wobblier…

      • 20 Jun 2019 | 08:42 UTC

        China’s Fuzhou port tightens coal import restrictions: sources

        Customs officials for the Fuzhou port in China’s southeastern Fujian region said only coal end-users such as local steel mills or power plants will be able to obtain customs clearance for imported coal, according to market sources Thursday.

        Traders said the decision came into force on Tuesday, and effectively prohibits end-users from using their import quotas to bring in thermal coal for users located outside Fuzhou.

        “This seems to be a warning to Chinese imports and the demand from China will now reduce,” an Australia-based miner said.

  3. Not much news on the Westpac vs ASIC case. Nor the class actions. Really want a precedent to be set here otherwise it will be back to 2017 with dodgy lending and houses to the moon.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      You’re fulfilling your destiny, Timmeh. Become my apprentice. Learn to use the dark side of the Force.

    • I actually want Westpac to win and for us to go back to 2017. Lending will be fast and furious with house prices jumping 15% within 12 months. Then game over. No matter what ARBA, APRA, Any Gov (Fed, State, Local) do it will not be enough. And as top up we US to go full trade war with China.

      • I think we peaked between Apr-June 2017 as prices started to fall then – well before the banking commission. Matter of fact I think we went over the peak but Chinese bid helped prices to go bit further. Hence why I doubt prices can go much higher then 15% max – actually I think max growth will be less than 10%. Unless we find new Chinese.

  4. The Traveling Wilbur

    I’m conflicted.

    Can’t figure out which team I want to lose most.

    Probably Australia. No – England. No – Australia! No – … aaaaagh.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Meh…the sad thing is due to a poor selection my magnificent attempt at a trip to London has proved to be futile. Why did I tip the Saffers over the Pakis? Why!?

      Now back on page two of tipsters. What’s left to live for?

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Where’s Harry? His Michael Clarke mate is trending on Twitter.

      Nothing positive to report.

    • Dismayed the watergate scandal was brushed under the rug. The fvckers seem untouchable these days.

    • Gold. This reminds me what was happening in many parts of Eastern Europe before those countries fell apart. There was mass plunder. Never thought I will see this happening here and people to be as indifferent as those in the old communist countries. At the end, back there, most people actually aspired to become politicians in order to get their hand into the pot and sadly same is happening here. That is why I was not surprised by the elections result. Aspiring millionaires from the slumps voted LIBS in a hope to get their IPs back into profit.

      • Much as it pains me to say it, after visiting to ol’ country in April, we’re going down in the same direction. Admittedly not the same road, ours has got fewer potholes, but the same direction nonetheless.

        I haven’t been there for 20 years, and nothing has changed for the better. People are angrier and the cynicism you can scrape it with a D9 off the streets… political class is utter shambles, and people have long time ago wisened up to the fact that The European ‘dream’ is just bullsh*t designed to make others rich.

        But, whilst there’s a tired angryness, people will still come out by the hundred of thousands to demonstrate against the thieves in government.

        That doesn’t, and won’t happen here… ever!

    • FMD. I know the country is run by thieves and psychos…but I didn’t think they’d be quite that blatant.

      What a terrible place this has become.

    • CanuckDownUnder

      If the first wicket doesn’t fall until the 23rd over, sorry Usman, but Smith has to go in.

      Maxwell his usual explosive self but has faced a grand total of just 70 balls all tourney.

      Stoinis? Really? It’s bad when you’re asking where M Marsh is.

      • It’s an incredible straight jacket we find ourselves in. In order to fix things we need more debt to pump house prices. But then debt becomes a problem. So we don’t want house prices to go up too much. Just a tad, but we also want wage increases but that won’t happen because of high immigration. But we can’t stop that because demand will fall and house prices with it, besides locals won’t buy dog boxes, especially not now.

        So we can’t kill that, and we have no plan outside of China boom forever. Of course we could just let it all crash. Then fix thing.

    • Check out the primary ethnicity of all those bargain shoppers in the pic at the top of the article.

      Sydney is no longer an Australian city.