Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets continue their mixed start to the trading week as risk markets continue to wait the latest from the tanker attacks in the Gulf and the upcoming FOMC Meeting on Wednesday. The PBOC is basically holding steady with its firm hold on the Yuan while the RBA released its latest minutes which sent the Aussie dollar falling due to the much more dovish tone.

Chinese share markets slipped after recently rebounding, with the Shanghai Composite falling nearly 0.3% and remaining below the 2900 point barrier, while the Hang Seng Index bounced again, lifting nearly 0.7% higher to 27418 points. The daily chart is stabilising somewhat here but caution still reigns:

Japanese share markets were the wet bag for the party as Yen strengthened, with the Nikkei 225 snapping down 0.9% in a sharp selloff, closing at 20931 points. The USJDPY pair fell back down to the low 108s after again failing to get anywhere near the two week long resistance overhead nearer the 109 handle:

The ASX200 however made good on the RBA minutes by surging over half a percent, closing at 6567 points. The Australian dollar helped by falling below its previously daily low, hitting the 68.30 level in the wake of the dovish minutes. The daily chart spells the picture here – its all over for the Pacific Peso:

S&P and Eurostoxx futures are down slightly going into the European open with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 chart still unable to get above strong resistance at the psychologically important 2900 point level going into tomorrow nights FOMC meeting where everyone is hoping for more puts!

The economic calendar continues tonight with quite a few central bank speeches to watch out for, but also the very important German ZEW Survey and US housing starts.

Comments

  1. BrentonMEMBER

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/how-qld-tiler-bought-first-property-at-20-with-no-help-from-parents/news-story/908c4c930546671b8599817ad517a2e1

    23 year old tiler who accumulated 4 houses in a 2 year period, gives up his secret sauce for success:

    See, bruh, what you do is like use equity from one house, to like, you know, buy other houses. Dem dere capital gainz is now on 4 properties!

    https://media.giphy.com/media/8UGoOaR1lA1uaAN892/giphy.gif

    Goes on to tell us that he couldn’t do it on a normal working week, that he needs a minimum 40 hours (is that even possible?) of OT to get ahead. Gee whiz, wonder what happens when there’s a construction downturn and not only are you on zero OT, but you’ve lost your job and are likely in negative equity… At the tender age of 23, he has probably lived his fair share of downturns too.

    • as I said before.. the economy does not need to start to shed jobs. As long as it slows down to a point that people lose their OT and sales commissions, game is over.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      A fellow bogan and me were applying for the same job about five years ago. We’re discussing the benefits when he said he was going to pull out because he couldn’t live on less than $180k a year. Musta been those investments in Darwin.

      A story I heard time and time again. Hated the job but needed the money to pay for investments to pay for future retirement that may never eventuate.

      Straya. Winning.

      • Lol. I was talking to an old workmate after I had left. He mentions another mate who wanted to leave too, but couldn’t because of his “investments” I chuckled to myself. Aren’t investments supposed to make you money? Seems in Orstraya, investing means constantly losing money and getting a bit back in tax. Maybe it’s because we are in the upside down part of the globe?

      • Well put Timmeh. They are like pokies for the investor class of bogan. Keep putting your money in, surely it’ll pay out eventually!

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        There were two others who had lived the negative gearing dream but got out because they couldn’t see the point of earning a lot of money just to lose it. So sell up they did but would rarely talk about it. Reckon they only opened up to me because I was openly obnoxious about the whole housing business and took the heat off them. Anyhow, they both said they enjoyed the job so much more because they didn’t feel trapped anymore.

        I really do wonder how many people really do enjoy life. I’m fairly sure the owners of those bloody kids I’m always looking after and keep on making me sick aren’t enjoying life like they should. It’s sad. The kids are orright though. I’ll keep fighting for them. Their owners are gone.

    • These GOAT’s use a lot of help to do those hours – gonna end up with a single nostril flopping about. Kids are doing it just to hold 3 PT retail gig’s as well……

    • Just cos he doesn’t clean toilets for a living, has multiple houses and more money than you doesn’t mean u should resort to sour grapes brenten. Having that attitude is probably why you’re poor and can’t buy a house

    • I need to point out that that was the sexually frustrated idiot rage-head incel who smells like small fish and steals women’s identities and hides behind multiple user names including a very sad attempt at trying to piss people off while pretending to be me which is impossible because I’m inimitable and about 3 orders of magnitude smarter than he is but there you go eh?

      Better that he gets his extraordinarily creepy jollies here rather than brassing up children in Synagogues, I suppose.

      • 😂

        U silly old coot! U mad? I find it highly amusing that you felt compelled to point that out. Were you afraid of a nasty reply from ol’ cumbreath brenten?

      • BrentonMEMBER

        You don’t want any of that action, Gav. Maggot is like an STD infested ladyboy straight out of the bowels of Bangkok. A flea ridden mongrel that’ll make you regret the moment you mistakenly glanced his/hers/its way. Slack jawed, drool and all, it’ll shuffle about in your wake, incoherently mumbling in a manner that even the most benevolent of psychologists would recognise as clinical retardation. Nah, you def don’t want any of that particular brand of affection.

      • @gavin

        Because you don’t try to shut down any opinion that’s contrary to the tard perspective. Sad cnts like brentin deserve to be trolled, he’s angry at anyone who is financially better off than him.

        @brentin
        Bangkok ladyboys? Aren’t they the cause of your cumbreath? Thailand is the holiday destination of choice for povvo cnts like u, it’s probably where u got that gay tattoo.

      • You know all about Bangkok ladyboys hey brentin? It’s the likely cause of your cumbreath.

        😂

    • I’m very skeptical about the Townsville property now being worth an extra 100k. I know someone who has a couple properties up there and they are worth a little less now than when he bought them roughly 10 years ago. Also, after some improvements I might add.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Q: How do you improve a property in Townsville?

        A: Put it on a truck and move it out of town?

      • Probably used Nathan Birches contacts to re-evaluate the properties 100k higher in 1 year. Ain’t nothing wrong with it. Just ask Nathan’s broker.

      • The floods have helped no doubt. If you have a place that’s relatively undamaged then your ok. The Adani effect can’t be underestimated. Adani to Townsville will be what INPEX was to Darwin. The NT Government promised endless riches to the residents of Darwin. Property prices leapt higher as the construction phase started. Now that phase is coming to an end with all the reduction in labour and materials, Darwin is now in a terminal decline. Townsville will be no different.

    • I see what you’ve done there is used what linguists call an ethnolect. Ethnolects used to be looked down upon but supposedly not anymore. Now they are a form of Australian English that is accepted. According to high school education.

      Well good luck speaking like that I say when going for a job with any large corporation offering significant remuneration.

    • I have many investments I never made but wish I did. One that I keep regretting was GMG, two years ago at $8.00. Decided against it as I didn’t understand the business. Fair decision on that basis. Only problem is – now at $14.83, pays a little a dividend, and about to join the ASX20 to boot. Grr!

  2. The Traveling Wilbur

    Divest of your shorts gentlemen. Chris has called the end being nigh for the AUD (above).

    We all know what comes next…
    Just wish he’d confine those kind of remarks to Fridays.

  3. HIBOR 18 June 2019: 2.42000%
    Rate remains elevated, despite the indefinitely delayed extradition bill.

    “Mrs. Lam’s bill exposed not only Hong Kong citizens to extradition to the mainland but also foreign citizens. That horrified the influential chambers of commerce that represent the West’s biggest banks, which almost all have their Asia headquarters in Hong Kong, as well as some of the West’s biggest manufacturers, which keep staff in Hong Kong while overseeing factories on the mainland.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/15/world/asia/china-hong-kong-politics.html

  4. Any idea why the 3month interbank lending rate has dropped so much recently? Nothing makes sense to me whatsoever, with all this risk going on in our economy lending rates drop? I thought by dropping reserve rates our AUD would fall more than it has too but I was wrong again. No worldwide recession for almost the longest time in centuries either. No AAA downgrade as was predicted here. I have bought and sold 2 houses over the last 15 years at the perfect timing thanks to my dad. He tells me to start looking and buy in again now but I have been a massive skeptic of boom times for the last 15 years and I was totally wrong wrong wrong! lucky I took his advice. I never imagined in my wildest dreams we would get here, what to do next is the magical question

    • don’t listen to us. or I’ll make you invest in 2c shares and you will hate me for rest of your life. so don’t buy CHZ and CAI.
      LOL

    • proofreadersMEMBER

      Reach out to Reusa for investment advice and for vibrancy thrown in for free?

      • I am a renter not an investor so I wouldn’t be invited nor could I handle his parties anyway!

  5. Speculation in everything right now, but classic Japanese cars in particular…
    https://www.gumtree.com.au/s-ad/mount-hawthorn/cars-vans-utes/nissan-skyline-r33-series-2-400kw-534hp-69-000km/1220383133

    R33 Series 2s are going up in value and will be legal to import into the USA in 2021. Expect an example like this to sell for 50k USD in 2021/2022.

    That’s strong money for any vintage car, let alone the lower spec Skyline. I very much doubt his prediction will be right. But I’m seeing so many people flip these cars lately and it seems to be driving values up and up.

    Ever since the RBA dropped rates, I’ve noticed Skyline GTRs selling like Hotcakes, I replied yesterday to Nikola giving examples of cars and prices they have been achieving, absolutely mad.

    • They’re a handsome car, although I do prefer the R32 look more.

      Reminds me of my old RX7. I had a series 1 (79 model) as my first car when I was 16. Bought it for $3k with a rebuilt 12A engine with 30k km on it. Wasn’t perfect but in good mechanical order and looked fine. Nowdays you can only really buy rolling shells, chopped up bastardised ones with a 13B bridgey or its >15-20k for a nice version.

      • I was saying to a friend I hardly see any R32 GTR project cars. There was 1 in Davenport Tasmania rusty as.. missing parts, with suspected bent valves.
        https://www.gumtree.com.au/s-ad/devonport/cars-vans-utes/nissan-skyline-r32-gtr/1220652383
        I just looked today and it’s sold, asking price was $20k.
        The R32 GTRs seem to have crept up to $50k, where as a few years ago they were $20k all day long.

        I’ve always kinda wanted 1, but couldn’t justify another “Toy” and bought a Nissan Stagea 260RS wagon (autech version) with the RB26DETT. They were 5-6 on the market in the mid to high $20k-$30k range. None were selling. I bought mine and then after the RBA cut, they all sold within a week of each other.

        I dare say I could almost flip it now for $5k more than I paid.

  6. This property has been relisted, I recalled seeing it earlier in the year but could not find what price it was listed at. Anyway a bit of Googling (because Real Estate helps vendors hide information like this, which should in my opinion have far more transparency).. but here you go.

    https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:eTB0t3hUAA4J:https://www.commercialrealestate.com.au/property/155-warrigal-road-hughesdale-vic-3166-2014819232+&cd=3&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=au

    $1.4M.
    https://imgur.com/a/W9IQhMG

    https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-hughesdale-131372894
    Current guide price: $1,100,000 – $1,210,000

    Nice discounting. Just an anecdote but I’ve seen quite a few properties re-emerge post election that were listed and unsold from earlier in the year. I guess they are trying to take advantage of the bounce?

  7. CanuckDownUnder

    Things are going from bad to worse for the Afghanis, certainly not the tournament performance they were hoping for.

  8. Monkeys with big sticks the Greeks had 1 the Romans had bigger 1 the British enormous stick the Americans have a gigantic stick next rung is monstrous