Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are in a cautious mood today given the political activity in Hong Kong but also the continued fallout from Brexit. With the Chinese CPI print coming in strong as expected the PBOC kept the Yuan largely unchanged while locally, consumer confidence slipped but this hasn’t stopped the ASX200 make another new high as iron ore keeps powering on.

Chinese share markets are taking back their recent advances with the Shanghai Composite down nearly 0.7% to 2909 points, while the Hang Seng Index is finally listening to its own domestic turmoil to drop over 1.6%, currently at 27348 points. The daily chart was looking promising here for the bottom pickers and swingers:

Japanese share markets are in a state of flux with scratch sessions the likely outcome as the Nikkei 225 remains unchanged at 21204 points. The USJDPY pair really wants to push higher, still above former key resistance at the mid 108’s, but not yet able to breach trailing ATR resistance nearer the 109 handle, with the low moving average proving a good uncle point from here tonight:


The ASX200 continues its advance but it was much higher at the start of the session, currently up only 0.2% to 6561 points, even as the Australian dollar continues to retreat from the Friday highs to be below the mid 69s as buying support evaporates:

S&P and Eurostoxx futures are not moving around yet with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 chart still showing strong resistance at the psychologically important 2900 point level that needs to be breached soon:

The economic calendar ramps up tonight with two big events – first Super Mario is having a chat in Frankfurt, then its US CPI for May.

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  1. BrentonMEMBER

    Kyle Bass was spot on. Said that the CCP would try to seize control of Hong Kong and that it would drive political backlash; panic amongst the HK elites (capital flight).

    According to him, the majority of their mortgage market is made up of rolling 1 month HIBOR…. HIBOR is now spiking to the highest level since 2008. Is a highly leveraged HK banking sector that’s massively exposed to the HK property bubble a systemic risk? I reckon so.

    EDIT: a few of the lads have already posted the Real Vision interview with Kyle Bass in the other thread. Well worth a watch.

    • Worse then getting a speeding fine on the pacific motorway at 3am doing 105 in 80 zone for non existent roadworks. Jay walking bad speeding bad mmkay

      • I drive Sydney -> Melbourne regularly since family are all in Victoria. Anyway around any holiday period the Police come out in force on the motorway and hide in bushes etc.. Now look I get the extra patrols for drink driving etc.. but on the Hume Hwy it’s such a long boring drive, that it would actually be safer to be able to cruise at 150-180-200km/h in the far right land than it is to sit at 110km/h all the way. Not only would you get there quicker and be less fatigued but you would be more focused due to the speed your going. At 110km/h sometimes I feel I could doze off…

        But we don’t make sensible rules in this country, we just like to enforce nonsense. Never mind if your a car enthusiast with a few choice modification to make. Then you’re the devil reincarnated :).

      • reusachtigeMEMBER

        I’ve always wondered what sort of people drive all that way instead of flying. Always thought it was poor people. Definitely unachieving types for sure.

      • #Triggered.

        I have a station wagon now. Plenty of room for activities, I mean relations in the back… 😁

    • The state of policing in this country is as bad as the politicians. I got punched in the face by a tweaker out the front of my house a few years back. Cops wouldn’t even turn up. But they have the time to bust people jaywalking. And they certainly have the time to turn up to every music festival to harass people with drug sniffer dogs.

      • Pf, an ice addict. The little fvcker was in the park behind my house in the morning, probably after a multi day bender. Said he was hearing people saying sh1t to him (auditory hallucinations are a classic sign of someone have paranoid psychosis from amphetamines) I walked out my front door and he said something to me. I couldn’t understand wtf he was on about so went up to him. Kept accusing me of saying sh1t about him and eventually clocked me in the face.

        I’ve seen it all before with a couple of mates that lost the plot on that stuff. The telltale signs are pretty obvious if you know what to look for.

    • It is about Public Liability. I recall one of the first cases around 30 years ago was a child who broke a limb in a play ground, and the parents who obviously watched way too much LA Law, hired a lawyer to sue the pants off the local council. It escalated from there. Playgrounds shut down, forced to wear bike helmets, legal businesses boomed, insurance prices escalated, greenslip prices to the moon, jay walking fines, etc.

      We can also thank our idiotic right-wing governments forcing public departments to operate as profit centres which transformed our police dept into prioritising revenue raising over fighting crime.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      What that tells me is that Labor voters were already a miserable lot of no-hopers before the election even though they were all so far up their own ar$es readying for victory. On the contrary, Liberal voters were, and are even moreso now, positive thinkers of great success. It’s clear as.

    • No one gives a flying toss about the consumer sentiment of ALP voters. They don’t have two brass farthings to rub together. The same goes for their brain cells.

      • I agree and the inner west or Melbourne are practically overrun by vibrancy. Voting Labour is an admission you can’t get a better job.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Correction: Voting Labor

        is an admission you want someone else to have a better job. Probably your own given some of their policies.

      • BrentonMEMBER

        Keep up the good work fellas, job’s not done until we’ve really farked over the nation.

      • Andrew, you do realise that wealthier, educated electorates voted for Labor. The lower income aspirationals electorates voted for the Liberals and also voted to keep themselves that way.

      • BrentonMEMBER

        Don’t be too hard on them, WN. They were promised tremendous six figure jobs driving automated trucks for Adani. Jobs N Growth 3.0: This Time We Really Really Mean It

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        I thought the jobs promise was handwashing the coal faggots before feeding them into the new coal-fired power station Porleen wants to extort from the LNP?

  2. haroldusMEMBER

    It’s an early Mitchmas!

    My prediction – 17 off 25 and 1 for 74 (tailender).

    • haroldusMEMBER

      Ah I see. I saw Marsh and I got excited. It’s the Marsh you have when you’re not having a Mitch.

  3. The Traveling Wilbur

    Bonds, bonds, bonds and more bonds Baldric.

    Honesty Baldric I feel like a malpracticing therapist. Wherever I turn there’s this great appreciating bond in front of me.

    • I have a cunning plan.
      I shall Skase it around with the Stokeser and it will soon be Packering up and fleeing. Where do you think an appreciating bond flees to? I’d go to the Rinehart Forrests of Bavaria. It’s said that magical and l highly visible fairies float around and ensure that there are endless jobs and growth for all that are willing to have a go. By merely going there that must mean that I am having a go. And if I am having a go then I’ll get a go. So now I’ve got two gos. Would I take theses gos to the fairies to get the jobs and growth? Or, are the jobs and growth bestowed upon the people of the Rinehart Forrest by the magical and highly fairies while they are having a go?

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Gos? Clarkey would say you’ve had four *chances*. (however that’s from someone who doesn’t know what ‘second’ chance means, or at least can’t say the words. allegedly.)

        Though 4oz might be closer to the mark. Day off tomorrow by any chance?

  4. Khawaja is batting at 4. Are they going to get him to open the bowling as well? Or perhaps he can keep wicket. Why not a bit of both as that would give them three reasons to drop him. “Sorry, Usman. You were borderline with your batting but the fact you went for 8 an before dropping 3 catches, missing some stumpings and costing 20 byes, means your services won’t be needed anymore. Please don’t forget to ceremoniously prostrate yourself in front of Warner, Smith and Langer on the way out.”

    • CanuckDownUnder

      Bringing in Maxwell early was brilliant, now with just 12 overs to go we have renowned sloggers Khawaja and S Marsh at the crease!