Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

NAB: Australian dollar to 80 cents

Asian share markets are stronger across the board as easing tensions over trade negotiations are being reflected in rising risk sentiment. The Yuan was set a little stronger today instead of the usual weakening trend while a much higher NAB business confidence print and catch up playing saw local stocks hit a near record high.

Chinese share markets have advanced the most with the Shanghai Composite lifting over 2% to 2923 points, finally back above the key 2900 point resistance level while the Hang Seng Index continues to ignore domestic turmoil to lift nearly 1%, finishing at 27841 points. The daily chart is looking quite promising here for the bottom pickers and swingers:

Japanese share markets advanced again with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.33% higher to 21204 points, helped by some BOJ comments around risk and inflation accommodation and a slightly lower Yen. The USJDPY pair really wants to push higher, still above former key resistance at the mid 108’s, but not yet able to breach trailing ATR resistance nearer the 109 handle, with the low moving average proving a good uncle point from here tonight:

S&P and Eurostoxx futures are up 0.2% or so with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 chart showing resistance building at the psychologically important 2900 point level that needs to be breached soon or confidence will evaporate:

The ASX200 reopened after the long weekend and made a yearly high, soaring over 1% to close at 6546 points, with bank stocks leading the charge. The Australian dollar continues its own little retreat from the Friday highs to be at the mid 69s in what could be called a deceleration pattern, but there’s not much buying support here:

The economic calendar is pretty bare tonight with just a few third tier releases from the UK and not much else.

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  1. The Traveling Wilbur

    So the Australia 15-yr bond is worth less than the US 2-yr.


  2. Mike Cannon Crookes is pretending to be a hero again!

    Without spending any money at all. Should the absolute tightwad not be more concerned about the slow NBN?

    Mr Cannon-Brookes has emerged as a prominent advocate for clean energy

    How much was Domainfax paid to say that.

    In response to an audience question, Mr Cannon-Brookes said solar and wind power could replace Australia’s $70 billion coal industry, and would be logical exports for one of the world’s sunniest countries.

    Export sunlight? He makes no sense at all.

    The tech entrepreneur said Australia has all the ingredients to build a high tech industry, but is not living up to its potential due to policy settings.

    The current policy setting means giving a “degree” to every foreign “student” who cheats on exams. If that was good for innovation, Japan and South Korea would be inundating themselves with exam cheats and visa frauds.

    • It’s a funny emotion when you realise you are happy to be made redundant. Happened at my last job and was just such a relief.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Twice I’ve waited for redundancy. Twice I’ve missed it. Once I didn’t chase it, got it but they offered me a far, far better job in the organisation so I suppose that’s a win.

      Still would have liked the money from the two though. Never regretted resigning but…in the end I realised I should have left much earlier.

    • I can imagine the relief, I am hoping to make it to early next year (January 2020) then I’m done. I think 😀 Unless I find another job that I like in the same company. But as far as I know my role isn’t transferable to that location.

  3. TailorTrashMEMBER

    So I visited Thredbo on the long weekend …..what a sad little place it is now …………

    Opening weekend for “the season “ so it’s a grand lunch in the “Main Street “ ……some brand of champagne I never heard of is the sponsor ……

    A huge long table filled with the glitterati of Strayan skiing industry sitting there feeling so important …..but a tad disappointed as no one is taking any notice …..
    ……99.9% Anglo ….old ….pathetic………..

    Meanwhile back at the business end of this place …..grossly over crowded ………and and never seen so many Indians ……they were everywhere ……IT must pay well …..

    What was once a preserve of the well heeled of the Eastren Suburbs and North Shore is now reflecting the new Scomo Vision of Straya ……crowded……inadequate ….
    …….and a tad depressing …….

    • I was skiing at Falls creek with some old army mates. Lots of vibrancy. An Indian gentleman holding his skis over his shoulder swung to his right and his ski tips missed my face by a couple of mm. These people are as good at skiing as they are at software development.

      • You tend to find people from overcrowded sh1tholes like China and India have zero awareness of the people around them. I guess it’s a coping strategy when you live in an overcrowded place.

      • Sigh. Yes skip. Let’s always refer back to America. Surprised no link to a NC article…. Yawn.

      • I like to be inclusive about stuff Tim, you know, the world is not black and white or reality is not to be confused with some new cycle narrative nor a team sport.

        I mean wheres your umbrage at Gav below banging on about the mechanical heart or his predecessors the Dulles brothers …. sigh

      • Couple of observations from the 90s to drive that home. Texans with dollar sign or outlines of Texas baskets on their ski poles, this way every time they plant one in the snow it leaves their stamp, always the loudest and rudest on the slopes or in the town, best for last …. observed some bloke in their 50s attempting to lock into skis at main base lift in top of the line bright Descente onese and equipment …. seems the chap forgot to get bindings put on his new skis …. that went on for a painfully long time ….

        I could also go on about the thuggish nature of serf locations up and down South Bay L.A. Calif Beaches, want some glass in your wax, leash cut, or brawl on the sand, so you’ll have to forgive me when I point out all the world issues stem from whatever is the totalitarian pin the tail on the donkey of the month is wonky at best.

  4. SweeperMEMBER

    re. Gove. more evidence that a right wingers politics is nothing more than their own self loathing foisted on to the rest of humanity as they are too gutless to come to terms with themselves.

  5. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Enjoyed latest 7 UP series on SBS last night ….I’m old enough to have followed this all through my life ……fascinating look at the passage of lives…….
    ……..that cab driver I have a special affection for …he’s a good lad ……..but I have to say his admission last night that he “voted Tory all his life until the Brexit disappointment” left me a tad surprised…….perhaps he could be a customer for Ermo ……

    This is a great series ……..catch-up is available on Utube ………

    • A few Japanese makers went in big with hydrogen. They thought that it, and not batteries, would be what takes over from fossil fuels. Many still think that hydrogen is where we will end up. I was reading a piece on the Hyundai Kona EV and it had a quote from the head of Hyudai saying that batteries are the stepping stone on the way to hydrogen.

    • Problem with hydrogen is storage and transport. Though it seems they are going down the ammonia route for that so may hold out hope yet. The other thing is that with renewable electricity coming online, when it’s overproducing, can be used to produce hydrogen/ammonia. Be interesting to see how it plays out and which is the winner, batteries or hydrogen. Either way, it’s getting interesting.

    • What do you think footy, are we a chance? I’m not without hope. Shame Warner has morphed into Mark Taylor. Let’s hope he’s just warming up.

      • It definitely looks unlikely right now. Khawaja not opening is a great mystery. Lyon not playing is a mystery. Finch being on the boundary while Smith is bossing everyone about is a mystery. Australian cricket is a mystery. Well, not really. It is what happens when you let the Australian executive class take over a well functioning operation to modernise and pursue profits.

        I’d like NZ or the Windies to get up. It’d be nice if they both reached the final by defeating England and India in the semis. Trent Boult getting the final wicket, or Jason Holder scoring the winning run in a nail biter.

      • Only saving grace is that if you can make 4th, you need 2 good matches and you win. AUS dont look good enough, IND seemed to have too many match winners to cover. ENG look similar. If we can improve over the remaining games then we could do a Bradbury.

  6. Sigh. Once again, the rain hits and my NBN connection goes up in smoke. When I first got it connected (after giving up on my naked DSL plan because telstra techs never fixed the cables) it took 4 teams of techs and a complaint to NBN to finally get a team to fix it. Was good for a couple of years. Now back to the same sh1t. Tech came out a couple of weeks ago, tested the line for 10 minutes, said it’s fine, and in the same breath said he didn’t want to touch the pits because he would probably break something else. Provider called saying NBN tech (polish I think this time) said the issue was my modem because it had dust on it. Fvck me dead, now they are probably going to threaten to charge me because it’s happened again.

    • LOL NBN! What does that even stand for? I’ve thankfully got good 4G as it’s actually raining in Adelaide & my NBN always fails in rain. (Actually that’s a bit unfair on the rain….”my NBN always fails, rain, hail or shine”.) I hate it so much it’s getting me down. It’s so expensive & pretty much totally unreliable that I now just go straight to 4G at home. Pretty much a banking royal commission scenario…”fee for no service”! I’ve put numerous request for help in to the NBN provider but they just obfuscate with crap that I’m supposed to do & it might as well be written in Chinese as it makes no sense.Conclusion is that I pay bucket loads for something that actually does not work & when I complain to get it fixed they send me an email with instructions on what to do before they can fix it! Which really is an email saying F#$k Off!

  7. Caught the tail end of a TV promo for a story about another Opal Tower scandal in a favourite tourist destination (assume Gold Coast) which is supposedly far worse than Opal Towers.