Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Only the property crash can sink Australian dollar now

In response to the surge on Wall Street overnight, Asian share markets have the main echoed the returns with mainland Chinese stocks the only fly in the ointment. The local GDP print saw Aussie stocks taper off throughout the session, while the Australian dollar remains stubbornly below the 70 handle.

The Shanghai Composite remains unable to get back above the critical 2900 point support level, putting in a scratch session, while the Hang Seng Index closed only 0.3% higher to 26832 points, finally able to arrest the recent declinew. The daily chart had been showing a deceleration pattern with a target at the 27000 point level but sentiment is not yet positive enough to get back over that level:

S&P and Eurostoxx futures are flat going into the European session with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 chart showing last night’s surge that got back above previous key terminal support at 2800 points. Unless price can make further gains above this level, the market continues to signal a major correction as the completion of a very bearish head and shoulders pattern on the longer term charts:

Japanese share markets did the best again, despite a stronger Yen, with the Nikkei 225 punching nearly 2% higher to finish at 20776 points, bouncing off the key terminal and psychological support level at 20000. There might yet be a bottom in the USJDPY pair as no new session lows  – but a series of lower highs – as it remains just above the 108 handle during today’s session:

Australian stocks gapped higher in response to the overnight action on Wall Street but was unable to hang on to all the gains with the ASX200 eventually only closing 0.4% higher to 6358 points, still below previous support at 6400 points. The Australian dollar wants to push through the 70 handle but has stalled again going into the London session where momentum remains overbought and the four hourly chart is forming a nice bearish rising wedge pattern:

The economic calendar

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  1. haroldusMEMBER

    Here’s my ideas for saving money.

    1) The cost of trying and incarcerating foreign criminals comes out of that country’s aid budget.
    2) The cost of trying and incarcerating local criminals is recouped from any tax exemptions received by the religion of that criminal (cf George Pell).

    And have you seen the minuscule penalties applied for attempting to bring in biosecurity hazards at the airport? 300 bucks! 10000 minimum plus immediate deportation plus 5 years exclusion to think about it.

    I’ll get the light rail running on time too by seizure of all assets of corrupt administrators and associated entities.

    Corrupt politicians receive a *2 weighting on any sentence, due to position of trust.

    This is easy!

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Benito Haraldus has a nice ring to it ……..

      “The difference between the Italian railway service in 1919, 1920 and 1921 and that which obtained during the first year of the Mussolini regime was almost beyond belief. The cars were clean, the employees were snappy and courteous, and trains arrived at and left the stations on time — not fifteen minutes late, and not five minutes late; but on the minute.” Kenneth Roberts …Wikipedia

    • As usual, I reserve the role of chief executioner.
      and footsore, a gentle reminder that the court jester needs to be funny..

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        There used to be very few people in a court who could speak or criticize any act of the court especially if it was directly against the lord or the king of the court. Jester was one such person who could freely speak his mind out without worrying about the consequences.

        Something many of the commenters here have in common with our brightly-coloured comedy-clowns of the past.

        Even if those consequences involve being thought of as [note to self: insert flawse’s adjectives list here before submitting].

      • Being devoid of ambition allows was one to make career limiting comments in the modern workplace. Also, showing up, doing you your job, and being nice to others all assist in calling out BS. The first three help a lot getting the call out of the BS noticed.

        The best jester I worked with was an anarchist poet. He thought the job and the workplace politics were pointless jokes. He’d befuddle all with his comments that would tangentially glance the actual goings-on of the place. But when he went for his target he was deadlier than all the other schemers. The attack would always be in the open and eye-to-eye. He never missed and, to my knowledge, was never reprimanded. A true hero.

    • drsmithyMEMBER

      3) When an individual is convicted of a crime, any blood relations must serve out the same sentence. Obviously faulty genetics.

    • per capita GDP – economic growth per person – fell for the third consecutive quarter.

      Who are the psychopaths who pushed the share market to an 11 year high on 20 May?

      But then again, the ASX reached an 11 year high on 24 April.

      • Mum went to look at a Mudbrick home in Melbourne last weekend for me, it’s been on the market nearly a year and she just got an SMS to say vendors will consider all offers and are keen to sell. :).

        They are asking $770k… problem for me is garage space is going to be a challenge with the block incline. Tempted to offer $600k. (stamp duty exemption). 😀

      • That Eltham place … better add a bit to its price for the chance of living near Future Gav!

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      *cough* Barry Plant *cough*

      Bastards they are. A bit hilly in and around that drive. The land useable?

      • No idea, I haven’t looked at it in person. Street view showed the house set midway on the block, which makes building a garage a bit difficult. Hence it didn’t appeal.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Yeah, I just looked on satellite map and looks like it’s set out all weird. There’s some nice places though up in those little loops between Eltham And Eltham North.

        Edit: and why has the 2013 sold price disappeared from the internet? Too embarrassing? This hiding numbers crap is getting ridiculous.

    • Homes I’m looking at are still overpriced, rubbish and are sitting on the market for months then get removed. Only the good stuff of ‘value’ if you want to call it that is still selling. I thought things would have picked up these past few weeks but nothings changed except seller greediness. See what difference the interest rate drops do.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        A few places I’ve thought worthwhile watching along different parts of the NSW coast have gone under offer in the last couple of weeks but yeah, the rubbish is still sitting there all ugly and overpriced like a real estate hooker.

        It’ll be interesting to see if the offers hold because the asking prices had no relationship with reality.

      • tripsterMEMBER

        Consistent with my experience. Looking for a family home (to raise a family). Stuff that is nice to live in still sells, and for prices that seem unrealistic to me. Stuff that is ‘investment grade’ (i.e. buy to rent or own in the hope of future capital appreciation but no intention to owner occupy) is just sitting on the market forever.

  2. Spoke to some land agents in Melbourne this week. Sales and new enquirers are weaker than ever. A bottom in the property market is no where in sight.

    • This is what I think too, the MSM went nuts trying to talk it up, but that just smells of desperation.

      • I reckon every new spruiker article sucks in X new buyers and causes 5X new listings from anxious sellers.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Yet another member not getting to attend or see footage of Reusa’s shindigs.

      A market with plenty of bottoms on show.

  3. Outrageous raids on the ABC.

    The ABC has been cheering on mass immigraiton and wage theft for years but it still got raided? And it still got budget cuts?

    No point in cheering on mass immigraiton is there?

  4. According to the Abc news GDP is old news that’s why the markets and AUD is up today future boom is here for Q2! LOL

  5. We were interested in a house in Qld. Sold for less than the owner was expecting. 200k less.

    I texted the agent how much property sold for. Got x price in low 1m.

    Sold price verified my people in street as the seller not too happy

    However on sold price has increased by 97k. so incorrect price

    Who should i report this to? Any way i can report anonymously as this skews the market massively but dont want to let the agent find out it is us as we might have to deal with her.

    Office of fair trading?

    any way i can get accurate govt data for sold prices and not bs figures?

    • Doesn’t this self correct in a few months once settlement is completed? I’ve had properties listed as “contact agent” but after 3 months I finally get the sale price.

      When this property sold|sold-pdp:property-history-cta#timeline
      I didn’t know how much the other offer was until months later.

      I had offered $1.01M and the other party snared it based on contractual conditions. Happy in hindsight.

      • gavin we need govt figures in a timely manner not some bs private corp with vested interests

      • Not disagreeing, transparency would be welcome in the market by buyers especially FHBs which is exactly why we will never get it. 😁

    • Lol this normal in Sydney why not qld never let left hand know what the right hand is doing

    • Dutton will set the AFP on the old owners for being un-Australian and selling out.

    • Gold has no value in electronics any more it has been replaced keep up hard assets are still the go have you heard of the minor bird it likes bright shiny things just like brown and yellow but could be keeping dollar a ok

    • Have you heard of the minor bird they like shiny things just like brown and yellow will keep dollar a 0k

  6. Some friends just accepted an offer of $725k for what were hoping to get $775k for in Brisbane. It had just gone to market and they weren’t going to wait around to see if they could get more. Houses around them have been going unsold with stickers of over $800k on them.

    • drsmithyMEMBER

      There’s a place not far from us in Chelmer that’s been on the market since about February. Originally was something like $1.3m which was probably $150k too high at the time. Now is at the “expressions of interest” stage. Haven’t seen an open house sign on the weekend there for a good month or so.

      • Brother in law got out of Graceville [past Graceville shops and station near Sherwood Rd] 6 months ago, same for Gap property [previous residence – new build] , divorce thingy.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        Probably just the right time.

        Unfortunately we had to find somewhere to settle in for the long term, convenient to family, school zones, etc – can’t pause children once they’re born. I’d rather being living out Pullenvale/Brookfield way on acreage, but after a great deal of consideration decided that ~15m in either direction to both sets of grandparents and an extra ~60-90 minutes in each day not having to commute Moggill Rd are worth it.

  7. Let us hope that the first step in righting one of this nation’s many wrongs takes place this evening. May Queensland be one up after tonight’s game.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      They were the one up during! the game for about 10 minutes. That count?

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Geez, that was hard. NSW had a lot of luck but still. Kaufusi and McGuire did a power of work.

      Oh, South Africa are just meekly giving it away.

  8. Well there goes the economic calendar. Something made the AUD lose 20 pips but straight back up … US ADP jobs miss … bond yields getting hammered yet again… volatility eh?

    • “Fingers crossed, and I think this is important for Australia given its high debt ratio that [the market] stabilises but then we go sideways for a while and eventually, hopefully, that brings down the debt-to-income ratio and debt servicing costs down,” Dr Oliver said.

      So here is one of our supposedly preeminent economists keeping his fingers crossed that his industry doesn’t blow up the economy from the last 20 years of fraudulent lending. Fvck me dead. They are all basically admitting now that we have been pumping a ponzi scheme and “hope” to not ruin the entire countries economy!!!! These cvnts need to be taken behind the shed.

  9. Australia’s house price downturn is now the largest on record

    Following 20 months of consecutive declines, including another 0.4% fall in May, according to CoreLogic data, prices have now fallen a cumulative 8.2%, surpassing the previous record downturn seen in the early 1980s.

    This chart from UBS shows that not only is the decline in nominal terms now unprecedented, it’s also one of the longest on record, only beaten by those seen earlier this decade and the early 1990s, before Australia’s last recession hit.

    It’s a ScoMo miracle!