See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:
The AUD is down a little through the morning with no misbegotten RBA utterances to keep it aloft:
XJO is down marginally:
Aussie bonds are up:
Bitcoin and gold are upperer:
Dalian is soft:
Big Iron up anyway:
Big Gas is meh:
Big Gold to the moon!
Big Banks are all over:
Big Realty is not signalling much of a rebound so far:
Gold and its vapid cousin BTC the standouts.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)
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I think it’s looking more like holding usd11k now.
Hopefully a whole bunch of people will pile in…. and then it gaps down to $6k and we witness brown pants galore. Would be awesome.
Assuming you’re talking about BTC. I think it’s due a retrace, probably not 6k though, more like 7 or 9. Parabolic blowoffs are bad for long term momentum, I wish people would calm down. Long term I’m bullish bitcoin because HODL entered mainstream use.
Of course I’m talking btc. I have only 2 settings – “btc” and “housing/interest rates/MPLOL”
The thing about parabolic blow offs in BTC is that each one tends to be higher than the preceding ones. The violence of this upswing rivals late 2017….
Previous retracement was all the way down to the electricity cost of mining. It currently costs around $3500 USD worth of electricity to mine a single bitcoin.
Is that right? Fat profits to be had for peeps with latent mining capacity that can be deployed quickly, then.
Depends where you get your electricity from. A lot of miners in China use spare hydro that isn’t otherwise used. These guys have a much lower cost
Those cost estimates are using the cheapest retail prices of electricity in the world. China and some subsidised US states have similarly low electricity prices.
Does “spare hydro” mean overflowing reservoirs?
It’s still mostly bigger investors at this stage, Bitcoin google search volume are about 10% what they were during the blow up in 2017.
I think most who are still in the BTC space expect a retracement – 20-40% retracements are standard fare for BTC.
I’d be happy with it – just means swapping more AUD for BTC.
Good to see the all talk is about Bitcoin. This bodes well for the barbarous relic. Very well.
Correction – Bitcoin is leaving every currency in the dust.