Frydenberg gets surplus, economy gets recesssion

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At the AFR it is all beer and skittles for Josh Frydenberg:

Department of Finance monthly budget figures show the underlying cash deficit for the 11 months to May 31 in the current financial year had narrowed to $115 million down from $4.9 billion in April and $2.25 billion lower than the 2018-19 revised budget profile deficit of $2.37 billion.

On a rolling 12-month basis, the budget was already in an underlying cash surplus of $1.5 billion but that shot up to $13.7 billion.

…The much-improved figures were driven by lower government spending with total payments $1.7 billion lower than the 2018-19 revised budget profile, and surging revenue with total receipts $1.4 billion higher than the 2018-19 revised budget profile.

Good job, mate, and goodbye economy, via Credit Suisse’s leading index of activity for infrastructure:

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Aaaand domestic demand:

All entirely predictable. The accounting identities of GDP guarantee it. In a current account deficit economy, if the government is running a surplus then the private sector must be running a deficit or growth will shrink.

Josh Recessionberg appears blissfully unaware of basic GDP accounting because, you know, good economic management…

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.