The new debt impulse in China continued in May with total social financing at 1.4tr yuan and banks at 1.18tr:
Shadow credit remains muted:
New loans have accelerated sharply through the first five months of 2019:
However, they are somewhat flattered by the base effect given last year’s deleveraging hit particularly hard mid-year. Thus, M2 is only stable at 8.5%:
The rolling annual is up and away:
But broad credit growth is not tearaway:
Or, via Pantheon:
There’s enough juice here so far to keep things roughly stable in H2 but not much more.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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