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Take a look at the latest domestic demand chart from Q1 GDP:
The arrow is Q1. I have extrapolated out the next year using the following assumptions:
- a slight improvement in consumption;
- a slight softening in public demand as infrastructure peaks;
- zero business investment growth given that is where we are trending to despite what the ABS capex survey says, and
- falling dwelling investment.
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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.