Will Labor’s parental visa blow a new foreign buyer property bubble?

Via the AFR:

When Chinese property selling platform ACProperty.com.au co-founder Esther Yong first started advertising residential property to Chinese investors, she never thought inquiries for Australian housing from China would dry up.

…The Chinese capital withdrawal is stark, Ms Yong says. The main reasons for the ongoing retreat from Australia are high stamp duty and scrutiny from the Foreign Investment Review Board. In almost every state, foreign buyers of property are required to pay a surcharge.

In January, nearly half of the 160 Chinese real estate agents surveyed by another online marketer Investorist in its International Property Outlook report said they were still selling Australian properties but only half of those agents said they would continue to do so by the end of 2019.

Great news. The bubble and bust in Chinese buying of existing property was mostly illegal, certainly immoral and without question should never have been allowed at all. The real reason the trade collapsed has nothing whatsoever to do with the above. Australia’s corrupt elite did nothing to deter the inflows. It was shut from the Chinese side, by CCP authorities that were desperately fighting a rear guard action to prevent a collapse in the Chinese yuan after letting it slide too far in 2014/16:

The capital flight was gobbling up China’s foreign reserves and had to be stopped to prevent a rout in the currency:

The capital account tightening was very successful and Sydney property values began to fall within six months (helped along by other factors such as macroprudential):

Yet, today, just as this disaster for Australian youth is coming undone, the open borders extremists of the incoming ALP Government are trying to revive the trade with an unprecedented parental visa that threatens a tsunami of grey Chinese sweeping back into Australian property. From Bob Birrell:

At present most permanent entry parent visas are from China, mainly because there is a balance of family rule in place. This requires that half or more of siblings are resident in Australia. Many readers will be aware that there is a waiting list of Chinese applicants for Australia’s existing permanent entry parent visa of near 100,000. They will likely take up Labor’s proposed temporary parent visa. However, many more Chinese will also become eligible. (These are people who don’t meet the present financial criteria for sponsorship, which are outlined below.)

The really big change in eligibility will come from Australia’s Indian subcontinent and Middle Eastern communities. They constitute a larger group of potential sponsors than the Chinese. Most do not currently meet the balance-of-family test or the financial requirements of the existing permanent entry parent visa.

Labor’s proposal will make then eligible to bring their parents to Australia. They will have at least as powerful a motive to avail themselves of this opportunity as the Chinese.

Labor’s proposal could easily generate at least 200,000 parent applications, mainly from Chinese, Indian subcontinent and Middle Eastern country residents of Australia, over a three-year period.

Peter McDonald has since assessed the numbers at more like two million.

At minimum, it seems, we will see hundreds of thousands of grey migrants per annum, in addition to the current huge inflows, and a significant proportion of these will be Chinese.

So what will this do to property prices? Let’s list the likely implications:

  • some parents will move in with families but many will buy nearby and housing demand will rise in migrant areas especially;
  • Chinese migrants tend to be wealthy people seeking a bolt hole away from the constraints of the CCP whereas Indian migrants are more working class. Muslim migrants are probably somewhere in between (forgive these broad generalisations, they are roughly correct is my best guess);
  • all are just as property mad as Australians, if not more so.

So, we can say that this will be a new source property price pressure but how much? The grey migrants will:

  • be cashed up, more so than their children;
  • unlikely to take on debt;
  • but able to operate under the radar in all-cash purchases.

This is where we come full circle. It strikes me that in its initial phases the new visa will most likely bring in Chinese nationals who have more money than most. Moreover, over time, it could reverse engineer student demand. If a wealthy Chinese person wants to emigrate s/he can place a child in Australia for education for the purposes of getting residency and then the parent visa in due course. So Chinese demand could stay strong given it is they that are most likely looking to relocate to escape a dictatorial regime. That said, Chinese student numbers are now falling and it may well be because authorities have already capped their Australian numbers so, again, Australian youth might again be able to rely on the CCP to protect their interests.

This raises a second question. Will the grey migrants that are already queued up be able escape the net of Chinese capital controls? These restrictions are only likely to intensify as China loses the trade war, forcing it to stoke domestic demand with lower interest rates, triggering further yuan pressures:

The evidence today is probably that they won’t. At least, not unless stinking rich, which enables all sorts of illegal conduits for cash. But that, by definition, is a small number of potential property buyers.

The Indian and Muslim parents will have no such troubles so demand in those areas is likely to jump substantially.

To sum up, the property impacts will probably be material but I’m not sure that they will repeat the disaster of 2014/16. The impacts will definitely be focused in the worst possible jurisdictions of Sydney and Melbourne but may be more localised this time around.

The caveat is if Peter McDonald’s number’s are anywhere near right, and the ALP anywhere near as mad as it appears on open borders, then a new bubble will be birthed.

Comments

  1. Many will live with their adult children. It might drive up demand for retirement accommodation at a time when we are already struggling to build enough of it for Ozzie boomers. By the way, the threshold of $80,000 refers to TAXABLE income. I personally know of one middle class couple who couldn’t qualify for the existing scheme because they had too many negatively geared properties. Also, Chinese students would likely be born under the one child policy, so the majority children rule wouldn’t be an issue (but the cap would still be an issue). Come to think of it, this means that a young Chinese person would be more likely to qualify under the current rules compared to a person from India or Pakistan.

    • Lenny Hayes for PMMEMBER

      Assuming almost none of them qualify for a loan on their own property, how many of them will be cash buyers who can buy a place outright (retirement village or other) ?.

      I think most likely they will bunk in with the kids.

      • I’d agree – this is the part that MB seems to have missed.

        Are more likely outcome is that the additional cash injection means the said kiddos will upgrade their house to a bigger one that houses grandparents in exchange for a cash top up and some free childcare. This is marginal impact on the overall economy and house prices depending on volume if (and that’s a big if) public service utilization is low for the new migrants. However it will definitely have a net effect of pushing prices up.

        So that’s the middle to upper end of the market sorted. Add the Indians and other migrants and they fill out the low to middle ends of the market and we are back in bull territory.

        I’ve said this before in a number of property based discussions. Australian government will continue to burn the furniture to keep warm and are too afraid to weather a needed crash.

    • Strange Economics of IO and NG

      So Ironic – gonna change behaviour –

      Now there is the first Govt middle class welfare policy which rewards HIGHER taxable income > 80k with Parental Visas…worth 500K !!!! ! After all that tax minimising work done to get lower – Damn.

      Gotta sell those Neg geared places now and get a second hand car and raise the taxable income !!!!

      So many people with OS parents (eg IT contractors , and English building tradies) have minimised taxable income by cash payments for tradies (-30k) , Famity Trust income splitting (-80k) , NG (-20k off) , FBT lease SUVs(-10,000 off) to get under 80K ….- and then also get more Family Tax benefit, etc.

  2. I can’t believe they are doing this
    Can anyone suggest where I can go live to get away from all these people coming to mel
    Was thinking Gold Coast

    • DominicMEMBER

      The reality is that ‘the wealthy Chinese’ is a myth. There are a small percentage of genuinely wealthy Chinese while the ‘middle classes’ do not compare to Western nations in terms of earnings — not even close. The idea that hordes of middle class geriatrics have a spare $500-$750k to drop on the Aussie property market is bullsh!t (that’s assuming they can even get it out). A lot of their wealth is probably already here and invested in their children’s properties anyway so what do they really have to bring.

      Most who come will bunk down with their kids, so maybe it necessitates an upgrade (for those who can afford it). Other than that, Chinese household debt levels in the last 5 or 6 yrs have literally exploded — a lot of that debt used to boost prices on our shores, no doubt. The only foreign cash buyers here are the uber-wealthy and the corrupt. Most of the rest have debt burdens either here or there.

      • John Howards Bowling Coach

        @Dominic. You are only partly correct. Yes the middle class earnings are low in comparison to Aussies. However the number of those Wealthy Chinese is massive. I was talking to a migration consultant last night who specialises solely in the investment class Visa fro China. The business is very large, the number of clients never ending. In my own business we calculate that the population is Wealthy Chinese still inside China who don’t want to eat locally produced food has now passed the size of Australia’s entire population. So you might think there is not money in the middle class to buy out Australia, but their wealthy are greater than our entire population and their wealth is enormous.

      • DominicMEMBER

        @JHBC
        I’m not so sure. The country has barely had capitalism (or some form of it) for 5 metaphorical minutes, their salaries are a fifth of ours and the majority are still dirt poor. I travel there all the time with work and the standard of living over there isn’t even remotely comparable. And if you go outside the major cities to the second and third tier it really hits home.

        The clue is in the banking sector balance sheet: from $1 trillion in the yr 2000 to +$40 trillion today. Debt is not wealth.

        The US banking sector balance sheet: ~$18 trillion in an economy more than double the size.

        China is fvcked IMO.

      • John Howards Bowling Coach

        @Dominic, I also travel there all the time and I agree with your last line absolutely. Yes it is a massive mirage and see that all the time from the high rise hotel in Shanghai as well as the many other developing cities. There is a shiny face held up by a massive slum overflowing with peasants with no manners who try their best to occupy your pre booked seat on the fast train. BUT I stand by the reality that despite most people being dirt poor, there are a huge number of wealthy and they will buy up Australia in a second if we let them. Remember that they effectively invent their own exchange rate as well as printing whatever money supply they want. They have a fake currency and vacuum up any type of international trade to legitimise and launder their currency hence the lust for moving money offshore. All those with deeper knowledge in China know it’s all fake and will collapse soon enough. I was having a drink with one of the leading metal traders from China last night, I asked him about the economy in China right now, he said it’s ‘very strange’ However that doesn’t change the reality that his has several $million in his pocket to buy a family home in Australia, and he’s not at all a conspicuously wealthy Chinese citizen, just one of the millions like himself.

      • DominicMEMBER

        @JHBC

        Agree on the exchange rate — it is a modern miracle that the Yuan can buy anything like what it is currently capable of purchasing.
        Kyle Bass (no fool) had a Yuan short on for 4yrs (which he recently took off) and while his logic was probably correct, he never accounted for the effect of $ money supply growth and China capital inflows.

        Now he’s cut his short who knows what will happen — the Yuan will get its just desserts eventually, that’s for sure.

    • Have you seen the prices there now. Expensive as Syd Mel in many areas and the bonus of f all jobs.

  3. Our only hope is for the economy to crash to stop this insanity. Make the place such a sh1thole noone wants to move here. I’m still waiting for the anger to start flowing, but i’m not even sure that will happen any more. Phew, what a pickle we have gotten ourselves into. We first decided to offshore our manufacturing to asia, whilst also selling any government entity to them as well, then we thought buying investment properties was the way to pay for the boomers retirement would save us, at the same time we imported as many third world people to keep up demand for everything, then we thought the mining boom would save us, then when it didn’t we thought blowing the housing bubble to the moon was the answer, so we gave cash to FHB’s to juice the boomers investment property prices, then we allowed chinese speculators to buy houses as well, then when that stopped we thought selling PR dressed up as education would help, and now we think bringing in those students parents will save us, and then we give FHB’s LMI discounts and think it will save us. Interesting time to be alive as an aussie. Crazy stuff, all brought to us by the c-suite brigade that demand every increasing profits whilst screwing incumbent citizens.

  4. TripleBeamMiracleDream

    meh, it means nothing. we’ll be begging for them when they don’t come. lol.

  5. Rich Indians buy real estate in Dubai.

    The ban on pork and poker chips does not impact them.

    Additionally, under the Reserve Bank of India’s ‘liberated remittance scheme’, an Indian investor can transfer $250,000 legally per year. A couple can send $500,000 every year.

    you can buy only a 99sqm land plot in Mumbai for $1 million versus a 162sqm land parcel in Dubai

    ■ UAE nationals recorded 4,112 investments worth Dh9.4 billion, topping the list

    ■ Indian buyers were involved in 4,676 investments worth Dh8.6 billion.

    ■ Saudis came in third with 1,882 investments worth around Dh3 billion

    ■ Pakistanis came fourth, having posted 1,851 investments worth Dh2.3 billion.

    The dirt poor ones come here, Canada, NZ. Sydney could have been like Monte Carlo.

    Has Monaco doubled its population since 1960? No. Has AUS doubled its population since 1960? Yes and then some.

  6. – Will this create a new housing bubble ?? Depends !!! It depends on how much money these immigrants will bring into the country.

    • proofreadersMEMBER

      Don’t overlook the possibility that irresponsible lending will be back with a vengeance soon, starting with to all for whom a heartbeat can be detected?

      • – “Iresposible Lending” won’t come back anytime soon. The main reason is that property prices are falling and then the banks become much more cautious (as we have seen recently). Too much chance of making a loss on your loan.

    • No it doesn’t. It doesn’t depend on the money.

      Housing is something that we have a physical shortage of. More demand into constrained supply will mean only one thing – declining affordability.

      • – If there is a physical shortage of housing here then why are there still some 80,000 empty apartments ?

      • – Agree. To be more precise: We have a shortage of AFFORDABLE housing (both rents & prices). Similar story for Auckland NZ. But with so many empty apartments/units and high rents you can bet your bottom dollar that in this (upcoming) “recession” both rents and prices will continue to fall until rents and prices have become ((much) more) affordable.
        – I think that prices will have to come down to say – at least – 3 times gross Household income. And rents will be forced to follow lower as well. But it’s a process with many variables. E.g. I fear that Household income will shrink as well, forcing rents & prices even lower.
        – But in recent years banks like ANZ, Westpac, CBA & NAB were willing to lend up to 12 times gross Household income to households in e.g. the affluent eastern Sydney suburbs. And you’re surprised to see prices go up to 12 times gross household income ?

  7. I raise a very very sad analogy that happened when middle class Berliners we’re evicted and eastern non gentiles bought up and moved in. It is the way life is, we need to ensure that we don’t make the same mistake

    • ahem…are you forgetting who traditionally owned this country and what happened to them?

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Yeah, but they deserved it for not destroying their country when they had free rein.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        You’ll be surprised how often you hear that kind of reasoning.

        Usually from the types who will load up the 4×4 to go experience the serenity of wilderness on the weekend but then bag the blackfellas for not pouring concrete on everything when they had the chance.

  8. If this had been on the front page of Fairfax and on the 3 TV stations news over the week, it wouldn’t be happening. Labor would lose the election over it.

    The corrupt media is as much if not more the problem than are corrupt politicians.

    • If the other parties we’re really against it, and the ABC we’d be getting a Productivity Commission call on it. Deafly silence tells me everything, and It’s going to happen. The numbers will be far greater as the cost is mostly on the tax payer and mostly the young taxpayers. Those who benefit will be a small slice of the permanent population. We can argue all the points, but I’m looking through the noise and it seems clear to me.

  9. The way I think we can be extremely confident this will start a new bubble is both LNP’s willingness to lose the election by not broadcasting Labor are doing it, and the media’s not reporting it.

    It’s a certainty this will boost house prices significantly.

  10. Holy crap, HnH, are you saying that uncontrolled migration will reboom the bubble, and no amount of building can keep up to keep prices affordable?

    It’s what I’ve been saying too – the temporary impasse between house buyers and house sellers has created mich pent up supply and much pent up demand. And will be resolved when either pent up supply or pent up demand “blinks”. With low low interest rates and high high migration, I’ve always claimed that immigration could be counted on backfill, then overfill the demand, causing the blink (while some clowns here claimed that foreigners were about to pack up and go home in their hundreds of thousands…..ahahahahhahaha!).

    Looks like we’re aligned again.

    • Recently arrived Australian will be pro rata the biggest litigants of banks when the outskirts unwind. bank will be gun-shy

    • What will it cost migrants to sign up to a class action ? zip. And Dom, yes many will go home too, while the class action is running.

      You guys shuld listen to some of the Hayne royal commission youtube Banks are in trouble no easy lending

      • DominicMEMBER

        Mate, anything’s possible but I guess my scepticism is based on the whole concept of ‘class actions’ being a bit foreign to the foreigners.

        Added to which, if they have ‘chip in’ for the legal action that might be a deal breaker. Anyway, we’ll see, but certainly the locals will be all over the CAs like a cheap suit.

      • Medicare cards, NG and and childcare rebates are probably “a bit foreign to the foreigners.” But geez, they catch on quick.

  11. Ronin8317MEMBER

    The visa is an extended tourist visa. It won’t affect Chinese property demand because the parent on this visa still can’t get the money outside of China.

    • Yeh, an extra million people in the country won’t do anything to affect housing demand.

      Have you learned NOTHING from the last decade?

      • I think the 50,000 vacant dwellings from the 2001 census might still be empty. Perhaps that “oversupply” could house the new arrivals.

  12. ‘The main reasons for the ongoing retreat from Australia are high stamp duty and scrutiny from the Foreign Investment Review Board.’

    FIRB! Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaaaaaaargh!

    • Well in this case that’s correct. The child is a permanent resident and can buy for the parent completely free of FIRB rules… because they are not a foreigner.

  13. The incoming alp gov for all they say about the youth do the opposite in reality. Make everything including housing more expensive. Yet, do we expect the lnp or greens to do different in reality. I only see a hung parliament and a viable senate being any hope. It’s crazy the pollies can’t/wont see what’s going on. We’re expected to believe they’ll be on our side. Oz to become the chinese controlled new hong kong where everything is priced to the moon.

  14. Will Labor’s parental visa blow a new foreign buyer property bubble? Isn’t that the intention…

    • Well, putting jokes aside for a moment, I think what they really want is a CONSTRUCTION bubble (because union mates). The plan would be:
      1. Flood the country with people (any people will do, but they have chosen old people)
      2. Trigger acute housing shortage
      3. Trigger large construction response . Cconsteuction of apartments, houses, infrastructure, everything
      4. Union mates happy
      5. In 5-10 years time when the old people go back to wherever they came from (or back to their maker), we are left with abundant cheap housing and infrastructure, paid for, in part, by foreign savings.

      As far as plans go, it’s actially a reasonably good one.

      But in reality, of course, we would never get to item 5. We would just keep cycling between 1-4, with ever increasing amplitude.

      • More likely 20-30 years as people are living longer, and in that band the youth of the country get hit with the tax burden, and the inability to buy a home. What a plan..

      • The worst outcome but I agree with your cynicism. I dont think a crash is good for Australia but I dont think another bubble is good either. Its these massive ups and downs that really destroy wealth for the working class and cause real impacts to the economy.

      • DominicMEMBER

        On the bright side at least there is little chance of being mugged by gangs of geriatrics.

      • 5-10 years Peachy? Hmmmmmm. Once Mcmanus gets into power next week we’ll be on the one day working week for CFMEU members (at full weekly pay of course). It could take 50-60 years to put those high-rises up…

      • Might backfire on union mates when China flies in its own workers to build apartments for its own citizens.

  15. Jolly Trollop

    It was on the evening news a couple of nights ago that Ryde house prices plunged 21% whereas nearby Epping the plunge in house prices is now down a whopping 29% from peak. All areas with previous massive interest from overseas Chinese. Goes to show the effect these mofos had on rapid Sydney house price rises.

    • DominicMEMBER

      This should be no surprise: the Chinese are a nation of inveterate punters. They stampede into whatever the ‘mania du jour’ is and they also stampede out in mass panic when the bubble bursts. Houses, stocks, bitcoin … you name it.

  16. SweeperMEMBER

    Wouldn’t a better place to start be to ask:
    How is this going to reinflate a bubble which has burst as investor CG expectations have now flipped.

    I think I’ve been reading stuff about housing for 12+ years and yet still the vast commentariat in this country with the exception of guys in the investment world and non conflicted economists doesn’t seem to want to admit that the essential underpinning of the bubble is unrealistic expectations of CG not supported by cash flow, and claiming this fundamental or that fundamental explains or will reinflate the bubble is an a priori falsehood.
    How does this change the mass bubble psychology of investors who are responsible for bubble prices and are in the process of sobering up is the question.

    • What’s the yield on housing ?

      What’s the yield on a 10year bond ?

      Oh , plenty of fundamentals to support the price

      • DominicMEMBER

        There is no comparison between the yield on a 10yr bond and a house. A 10yr bond has excellent liquidity and no maintenance costs, for starters. People who think a 5% gross yield on a home is good business. Lol

      • SweeperMEMBER

        Gross rental yield median house in Balwyn Melbourne
        = 1.5%
        10y bond yield
        = 1.7%

        House in Balwyn is safer, and more liquid than safest and second most liquid asset in country.

      • Sweeper: what % of Australia’s housing stock is located in Balwyn? <1%?
        Nice cherry picking there

        Even if we limit our assessment to sydney gross yields are still in the 3-4% range.
        Net would still be above 2%

        10yr bond is heading down down down

        Rents will be maintained even if wages and employment drop, because these people will sleep 4 to a room

        Dominic: I'm glad you're willing to leave yield on the table. I'm sure Blackstone or some other friendly conglomerate will be happy to pick it up
        Also, a 10yr bond offers no protection from inflation, or currency debasement

      • Sweeper: what % of Australia’s housing stock is located in Balwyn? <1%?
        Even if we limit our assessment to sydney gross yields are still in the 3-4% range.
        Net would still be above 2%

        10yr bond is heading down down down

        Dominic: I'm glad you're willing to leave yield on the table. I'm sure Blackst0ne or some other friendly conglomerate will be happy to pick it up
        Also, a 10yr bond offers no protection from inflation, or currency debasement

      • Sw33per: what % of Australia’s housing stock is located in B4lwyn? <1%?
        Even if we limit our assessment to sydney gross yields are still in the 3-4% range.
        Net would still be above 2%

        10yr bond is heading down down down

        D0minic: I'm glad you're willing to leave yield on the table. I'm sure Blackst0ne or some other friendly conglomerate will be happy to pick it up
        Also, a 10yr bond offers no protection from inflation, or curr3ncy debasement

      • nice cherry picking: what % of australian housing stock is in Balwyn?

        Gross yields are >3% even in sydney

        Im glad dom is willing to leave yield on the table, as blackst0ne or some other corporation will be glad to pick it up
        Not to mention bonds offer no protection against currency debasement or inflation

      • SweeperMEMBER

        Capital city avg. gross rental yields were around 3% last time I checked.
        Inflation! pfft.
        So your expecting an inflation outbreak?
        Anyway the inflation protected 10 year bond is yielding about 3.1%
        Higher than the capital city avg gross rental yield.
        So would you rather the safest, very liquid, inflation protected asset in the country with a higher yield or a capital city house?

      • it doesn’t have a higher yield
        in fact it has a yield that is nearly half

        Inflation will come from currency debasement, and the relative value of the bonds will similarly decline

      • SweeperMEMBER

        Yes you are right. However if you were worried about inflation you could get the inflation protected bond to guanrantee a real yield. Even though it is small.

      • SweeperMEMBER

        And the point is that the rental yields should be around 5 to 6% not near bond yields.
        What do you think the probability of not being paid 12 mths rent v coupons is?

    • It won’t change the psychology but it will sink in, eventually. The party’s over.

      It’s been said here before that the prospect of CG is the driver and NG the enabler. Market reality has removed the driver, NG is left as a loss-making nonsense, the only logic for the investor is that they are losing less than they otherwise would. In this scenario the Labor reforms are purely a budgetary measure and, obviously, are not responsible for the price declines. The reforms do reduce the chance of a bubble re-forming though.

      Dr X timed this perfectly (Popping Bubble blog) back in 2017 – I wonder if the other predictions pan out? If so, devastation ahead.

      • SweeperMEMBER

        Yes that is a great description.
        Expectations of CG not supported by a realistic forecast of cash flow is the driver.
        NG is the enabler because it makes it easier to carry the asset while they wait for their CG

        That’s not the story which often comes across on this site though, it’s more:
        CG expectations are valid because:
        – immigration
        – parental visas
        – credit
        – zoning
        – NIMBYism
        etc.
        Which is just wrong and counterproductive.

  17. So Labor wants to restrict negative gearing to bring down prices so housing is more affordable for the new foreign buyers they are importing?

      • And they want to take $59 billion from older Australians to pay for the older foreigners they want to import. You couldn’t make this up.

  18. kiwikarynMEMBER

    Nah, it will be balanced out by all the dead Australians who died while waiting for hospital treatment, when the hospitals are all full of elderly migrants hogging the beds, the doctors, and the drugs. Good luck trying to get treated quickly when old migrants with medical insurance go straight to the front of the line (because if they don’t that would be rac1st you know, and the media would be all over the outrage of it).

    • If the Greens get their way, the deaths of old aussies will be another tax, so it’s a win win situation really

  19. Ajaydee73MEMBER

    Demand for healthcare will go through the roof. They’ll have to import hundreds of thousands of medical professionals. These professionals will be buying property.

      • All this will lead to an aging of the population. We’d better massively increase the skilled migration program to bring in more younger people.

    • Demand for health will increase but supply will not match it. For overseas trained doctors, it is a very difficult and time consuming process to get one’s medical degree recognised, and for those that do – overseas specialists are subject to the moratorium restricting them from accessing Medicare for 10 years unless they go to the country. Until then they’ll be restricted to working in public where it is already incredibly competitive to get a full time position of any kind. New specialists I know coming through are only being offered 0.05 EFT, or half a day a fortnight.

      I expect public hospitals will struggle with demand, but enterprising doctors out in private will make bank.

  20. If a million old people come, Australia will finally be prompted to have a debate on population growth.

    The oldies die. Fewer young migrants. Existing migrant cohorts age. Less pressure to bring parents by migrant groups.

    Minimal harm done.

    A vote for Labor could be prudent.

    • Ajaydee73MEMBER

      Someone will quickly use the “r” word and then the debate won’t be allowed to proceed.

      • It’s all over the talk shows on Sky news. Credlin and Paul Murray have covered it and even Speers has too I think. Apparently for the rest of the media this is a right wing conspiracy that has to be ignored.

  21. TighterandTighter

    Still long regional bolt holes if you can transfer your skills.

    Golf membership cheaper.

  22. John Howards Bowling Coach

    Speaking to a Chinese Migration consultant last night, they said the likely incoming ALP government is going to kill Australia as we know it from this single policy. They deal with these people trying to bring in their parents as a daily task, and they know the numbers are enormous. There is a tidal wave of parents waiting to vacuum up every last $dollar of public subsidy they can grab. Medicare will collapse in less than 5 years if this policy is enacted. We can only hope it’s a non-core election promise, it will be a disaster equal to having Scummo remain as our PM.

    • If and when it happens, Australia should make sure todays Labor politicians are stripped of their wealth and jailed.

    • DominicMEMBER

      Well, I’ve said it hundred times on this blog that welfare as it stands today is unsustainable. If this wave of elderly migrants comes it’ll just hasten the day.

      Migration program + welfare system = disaster. Period.

      When I made this statement a few months ago some dimwit on this blog actually asked me provide ‘proof’. Seriously.

      • I’ve had the same reaction. Medicare will soon be finished for almost all Australians.

        That’s what this excruciatingly stupid country is voting for LNP or Labor.

      • You are spot on Dominic.I mean this visa will break the medical system. Health costs have been increasing more than inflation and this will put the turbo boosters behind the costs. Two options await:
        1. Increase taxes
        2. Reduce welfare
        My money is on both happening, so the future for our kids and those of the working age is particularly bleak.

      • John Howards Bowling Coach

        @Dominicm you are spot on. The only solution is to exempt all and any migrants from the welfare system including giving them true cost public transport fares because the entire public transport system has to be subsidised by design and shouldn’t be so to the benefit of non contributors to Australian taxation receipts. My friend the migration consultant tells me the very first day their wealthy migrant clients get their Visa they are in the queue at centrelink and enrolling their kids into the best public school they have found their way into the catchment zone to. Renting their homes from themselves to scam the rent support program at Centrelink. They play us for the suckers we are. I propose the government set up a dob in a migrant welfare cheat hotline. I could name 50 on the first day, I kid you not!

      • There are avenues to anonimously dob in directly with Centrelink, ATO, Department of Home Affairs.

      • DominicMEMBER

        “There are avenues to anonimously dob in directly with Centrelink, ATO, Department of Home Affairs.”

        Yes, but will the authorities take any action? I was listening to a report on the radio recently on how this Iraqi family involved in the RedRoses Childcare centre fraud were dobbed in 8 months before any investigation even began. A official said the sitting Govt normally doesn’t care too much as they just want the money spent — for the record. It’s all very political — pollies dorn’t really care about taxpayer money, they just pay lipservice to the idea they give a f**

  23. The elderly migrants will convert their international drivers licences to Australia Licences and cruise around the city in their brand new Mercedes SUV at 10 kph.
    Before this, most would never have driven a car in their life.

    • John Howards Bowling Coach

      We need to follow the non PC driving policy from the UAE. If you come from a developing nation, they don’t consider that you have a licence at all, back to the start and learn to drive

      • As if vibrants in positions of authority will find it particularly hard to pass a fellow vibrant at the license exam, especially if tempted with modest amounts of money. (/sarc)

  24. I think this policy will lead to eventual removal of medicare as we know it. It will become so overwhelmed under Labor that when LNP get back in they will say that we can’t afford it anymore do it will go and we will end up with US style healthcare. Problem is we pay more tax than the US so wtf is my money going?
    On the bright side outer suburb mcmansions will boom. ..

    • blindjusticeMEMBER

      mansions eh? you mean the townhouses that are eaves to eaves and rarely come with gardens? How many countries would that be considered a mansion? I`ll rephrase that……how many first world countries would that be considered a mansion……?

    • Where’s your money going?
      Well, Aus has 8 times as many public servants per head of population as the Kiwis do. Of course, you can make a case for this if you have 8 different car driving licenses…. Oh, and speaking of transport, the upgrade to the Brisbane M1 finished recently after more than a decade of work where approximately 1 in 10 of the road workers were actually doing anything at any one time. My partner and I used to take photos of them but obviously if you said anything in a public forum the CFMEU bikies would be on your case.

    • You’d think the Libs would have worked out by now that if they introduced something like this Labor would out flank them on the Left and double it at least. It only happens EVERY time. But the current crop of Liberals aren’t that bright. Turns out Labor has a problem with the Chinese community after the Michael Daly fiasco in NSW so they just removed the cap completely. Anything for power. Whatever it takes.

  25. With both parties backing it in principle, the only hope is that the conditions will scare people off and they will be actually enforced.

    One of the sponsor requirements is:

    “Paying outstanding public health debts – ie Medicare – incurred by their parent in Australia. The obligation ceases if the relevant health authority advises the debt has been repaid, or acceptable repayment arrangements have been made. This obligation will continue if there are outstanding health debts, even after the parent who incurred them has departed Australia.”

    With the applicant having to prove they have a minimum income of $83,454.80, I anticipate the above will be linked with the ATO to ensure public health debts are repaid.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      I have a question. Why do you think that policy requirements will be followed when recent history shows that they are just another bit of jibber jabber to be ignored?

      • Political parties can lie and obfuscate, but any actions taken will be done by those applying and enforcing the rules.

        I expect people working at the ATO and Medicare to do their jobs (as to not get the sack) and be across the new rules and Visas requirements. Don’t think it would be too hard to issue a new Medicare number for new applicants that is linked with the sponsor’s TFN and applies any costs incurred to their tax return. It already happens now – you see a doctor, pay a gap and the reimbursement either gets electronically processed on the day or posted out via cheque and Medicare keeps a record of it. If you hit a certain threshold in terms of gap payments (roughly $2k per calendar year), they let you know you’re eligible for an even larger discount.

        I also expect potential sponsors applicants to take the visa rules described at face value, and not have expectations that the rules won’t be enforced. Some will be cautious and not apply, others won’t meet the income threshold. People who think that it won’t be enforced may get a shock, and in time I would expect to hear about some chumps who have entered some dodgy arrangements to be sponsors for lots of people, and get burned come tax time. The rules state that applicants are still liable more than 2 years after the visa has expired, so we’ll definitely see

        Of course, all this is probably all theoretical. Assuming the polls are correct and Labor wins, the LNP and conservative micro parties in the senate will vote against it, as would the Greens as they’d probably want the minimal income thresholds removed entirely.

    • So they honestly think they can get these debts paid, from a cohort that is infamous for tax-avoidance, tax-fraud, cash-only businesses, welfare fraud and underpayment of staff?

    • I just had lunch with a doctor mate and he said, in Melbourne at least, the system is under huge pressure. With this policy it will crack. It’s always the way, to get change it has to break.

  26. Unbelievable, just heard on ABC News Radio, a special report on the major parties migrant policies, this policy was not even mentioned!

  27. The non residents (TR & foreign criminal syndicates) buy existing modest low level established Australian unite & small houses via an ethnically aligned proxy PR or citizen.

    To wash the money.
    To have it in a safe haven with no repatriation treaty or no shared proceeds of criminal activity agreement.

    And the underlying nutrient is who lives in those dwellings, how & the cash flow model.

    Dirty money out of China, North Asia, India, the Middle East – laundered into Australia, then a proxy PR or citizen purchase of the old run down 2 bed unit in Burwood or the little fibro humpy in Granville.

    Out go the Australian family or legal normal tenants.
    Rented out via a ethnically aligned letting agent.

    Transient on the lease.

    In go the bunks, plywood dividers, window film, addition pass or door keys, rice cookers & gas camping stoves.

    In go the 3 Chinese or Bangladeshi or Nepalese families – or the 8 or 10 ‘students’ in bunk share.

    Each paying $160 (out west) or more a week for a bunk, bag of rice, wifi & toilet roll deal.

    Cash income?
    8 ‘students’ x $160 = $1,280 a week or $66,000 a year.

    Rent declared?
    $400, legal occupancy or market minimum or $21,100.

    Cash back to the criminal syndicate?
    $45,000 a year. Per dwelling.

    Plus the proxy claims negative gearing.
    And often lives in but not on the lease.

    How many such properties?
    Over half a million.

    Housing the migrant TR (2.561 million), 1.3 million in Sydney & 1.01 million in Melbourne.
    90% or 2.3 million who live like this in ‘private shared accommodation’ (ABS).

    Plus a fair chunk of the new migrant PR – 1.9 million of ’
    Also an 86% concentration in Sydney (0.9 million & Melbourne (0,7 million) of which 63% or 1.2 million also rent in ‘private shared accommodation’.

    Invariably ethnic aligned occupants, and foreign owned via the proxy.

    Do the sums.

    That’s 3.5 million migrants – recently arrived or as TR unskilled, working illegally etc that live in ‘private shared accommodation’ in just Sydney or Melbourne.

    At a conservative 6 x occupants per small old rundown unit or house -that’s 580,000 such dwellings now firein owned, via a proxy & run as a cash untaxed illegal housing goldmine.

    Total rent paid? $29 billion.
    Total rent declared? $12 billion (legal occupancy)

    Money back to the foreign criminal syndicates?
    $17 billion.

    Plus another $2-3 billion in fake negative gearing claims as the Australian taxpayer contribution to assist this criminal activity.

    The money laundered in?

    Say a very modest $500,000 average over the years per dwelling / and they only paid a 20% deposit (a number are actually full cash paid, but anyway).

    That’s $58 billion of foreign dirty money laundered in.
    That’s the scale of it.