Via the UBS property bears:
Election result materially reduces downside risk for UBS view on housing The main implication of the election is the absence of expected Labor changes, especially to negative gearing, capital gains tax & franking; rather than the Coalition’s mostly ‘status quo’. While this likely has limited impact on our credit tightening thesis, it may stabilise sentiment, & hence materially reduces downside risk to the UBS outlook for housing & the negative wealth effect on the consumer & economy. As expected, household tax cuts will start in July, but are only modest at <½% of GDP. UBS will review forecasts as election results are finalised & Government policy (if any) is released.
Seems about right.
