Golden Turd award for interest rate forecasting goes to…

Nobody else is going to say it so I had better. MB and Gerard Minack are the only economic forecasters in the market over the last three years to get the interest rate outlook right.

Nobody else saw rates continuing to fall. MB never wavered that the next move would be down. Gerard Minack was similar. Now everybody has fallen in behind us.

As far as I can recall only Bill Evans of Westpac never succumbed to the collective madness that the RBA was going to raise interest rates. Shane Oliver and the Kouk deserve a mention for being early movers towards easing. Goldman Sachs set an absolute new low in getting it all wrong with Bloxo close behind.

Sadly for Bill, despite him being the best of the formal bunch, with daylight a comfortable second, he lost his third (unwitting) bet with me in a row on the direction of rates.

Alas, this forecasting triumph does not give me any comfort. More a sickly feeling in the stomach because it means that, once again, the needed structural adjustment in the economy from household credit to tradables will be delayed as the corruption of APRA has hardly skipped a beat.

And so, it is with an insouciant joy that I announce the winner of this business cycle’s interest rate forecasting award.

The Golden Turd goes to…me.

Comments

  1. I do recall when you first raised the flag … presented a good case but still copped flak.

    For the upcoming reduction, there seems to be a lot of cheering. Someone has managed to turn this into a good news story. The masses don’t appreciate that it is because things are bad and getting worse. We are already at ’emergency’ rates … so this should be interpreted as ‘disastrous’ rates.

    • Torchwood1979

      Yeah, I’m not sure how we ended up in a bizarre world where rates being cut to 1% turns into a cause for celebration. I guess everyone expects it to prop up property, and the national consciousness is totally captured by the property market.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Your duty is to tell people what emergency level rates actually means. To stand in the face of cheap money and say no, wait. To take on the false idolatry of ‘millionaires’ across the land.

      Do you accept this challenge?

  2. To be fair they haven’t cut yet 😉

    You also get something for being right on the AUD since at least 2017, not sure before that as I wasn’t tracking but it’s been a good ride for the last two years at least.

    Special mention also to CBA for being enormously wrong until the very last minute. They also predicted AUD to bounce back to 80c by early 2019 😂

    • MBs call on the AUD goes back to at least early 2012, it reinforced my decision to buy USDs.

      • They got the late 15/16 calls spectacularly wrong. China came to the rescue again. David was calling Aud and IO into the 50/30s
        Go look at the blog posts from oct 15

    • Okay if you’re talking on a trading basis and I wouldn’t argue that they’re a couple of yrs late, but for me it is and will be a nice near on risk free payday, one 100 x better than interest, but maybe not as good if I had the knowledge and expertise to trade shares.

  3. Ugh, hubris before the actual result akin to the Lay-buh party.

    But, yeah.. I was expecting a cut in August after the next inflation data.. but after Lowe’s speech in Brisbane on Tuesday and particularly his ass-covering exercise of mentioning that monetary alone is not going to help the labour conditions, unemployment rate and economy (cover now in place for when his cuts are impotent and he can blame lack of non-monetary intervention) he’s now finally ready.

    4 June 2019 is the day when the easing cycle will now begin.

  4. RBA minutes predate the election and APRA changes.

    Would be pretty funny if RBA took one look at that sh!tshow of vested interests and decided not to cut for one more month or two…

  5. Denis413MEMBER

    It’s not about getting the prediction right, it’s about predicting what the market thinks will happen, before it happens.

      • Denis413MEMBER

        Sometimes yes, sometimes no. I recall them being often surprised at how hawkish the market was positioned / positioning and the rhetoric coming from the RBA. I don’t disagree that they’re overarching calls (i.e. eventual direction) are the best.