The short answer is no. The long answer is yes.
The RBA will still need to cut twice in H2 this year. If it doesn’t then property prices will keep falling and the economy keep stalling out. All leading indicators for employment have now crashed and the jobless rate will climb through H2 regardless of the election result.
Beyond that, however, the outlook has changed. In the medium term, the base case has shifted from an, at best, stabilisation in house prices to something more like a grind higher from early 2020. The FHB guarantee and preservation of specufestor tax lurks means better prospects for traction after two rate cuts, despite banks holding back some margin for themselves.
