I can claim to be the first but not the loudest or largest as the election, rate cuts, APRA cuts, and FHB stimulus trigger a property rocketeer party, via the AFR:
- AMP Capital economist Shane Oliver said the optimistic outlook was based on a “quadruple whammy”….
- HSBC’s Paul Bloxham…now expects house prices falls to stop within the second half of this year.
- Economist Stephen Koukoulas expects a further decline in construction but that house prices will actually start picking up in the fourth quarter of this year.
- A month the bigger banks Morgan Stanley economists also expect the collapse in house prices to recover earlier than expected.
- ANZ said that rate cuts and the likely changes to the servicability buffer rate would at least prevent…further house price falls..
- NAB senior economist Gareth Spence said it would take until next year to see growth again.
Always remember, property is a political economy asset in Australia, not a market based one. I agree that the base case is prices will bottom and grind higher into 2020, which may only mean the pace income growth:
