Poll Bludger gives election to Labor

Via William Bowe:

Federal opinion poll aggregate and seat prediction model, drawing on polling by Newspoll, Galaxy, Ipsos, YouGov, Essential Research and ReachTEL. State results displayed through the tabs below are breakdowns of federal voting intention, rather than state voting intention.



  1. So, minor parties to gain 1 seat compared to the 2016 election. A positive step.

    I can not believe that Australians were stupid enough to vote for self-flagellation on 2 July 2016.

    Given that LNP posters say “Shorten will raise taxes”, the ALP posters should say “do not vote for the Liberals if your income is less than $200k/year”.

  2. PB is excellent. His work on Crikey is also non-paywall until midnight Friday and well worth a look: https://www.crikey.com.au/author/pollbludger/

    This article is particularly insightful, looking at the convergence of poll similarities or “herding”

    For those interested in the numbers, Mark the Ballot presents a detailed statistical analysis.

  3. DominicMEMBER

    I never put a bet on the LNP at 4.8. What a c0ck.

    On the bright side no geriatrics.

  4. I think Homer Simpson summed it up best. Doh!

    Why did Labour lose the un-losable election?

    1. They under-estimated their opponents.
    2. They failed to have accurate polling data on both key issues and key constituencies.
    3. They attempted to sell a hard-left policy platform on an electorate under significant financial stress.
    4. They were tripped up by Murdoch and Palmer.

    But ultimately, it was hubris. To be having a beer with journalists in hard-left Melbourne the day before the election instead of glad-handing people in marginal constituencies in West Sydney was just bloody stupid.