Via NAB’s Alan Oster:
[The] “risk that the RBA delivers additional policy stimulus by early 2020, either by cutting again or opting for an alternative policy measure.”
“Yesterday’s labour force data provided further evidence that the economy is weaker than the RBA had expected.”
“Although employment has remained strong, other measures point to increased spare capacity over recent months, while forward indicators of the demand for labour have turned down, except for the less timely ABS job vacancies series.
“Given low inflation, continued weakness in the NAB business survey – where NAB’s internal indicators point to the weakness in spending becoming entrenched – and now higher unemployment, we think the Board will now act in June and that this is likely to be signalled in the May Board minutes and Governor Lowe’s speech on Tuesday.”
June then July for me. Followed by two more in 2020 and APRA easing as the housing anvil keeps falling.
ZIRP time.
