Melbourne’s migrant class war drives economic apartheid

By Leith van Onselen

We already know that Melbourne has experienced insane levels of population growth over the past 14 years, driven by mass immigration:

And that the lion’s share of this population growth has taken place in the outer suburbs of the city:

Last year, Infrastructure Australia reported that 1.4 million people in the outer-suburbs of Melbourne are not located within a reasonable distance of public transport.

Now, economist Peter Brain, transport expert Professor John Stanley and social resilience researcher Janet Stanley from Melbourne University have presented research warning that Melbourne has become divided into ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’, again with the migrant-stuffed outer-suburban areas most disadvantaged:

Melbourne is growing faster than most cities of similar size in developed countries. Population growth averaged more than 2.5 per cent a year between 2011 and 2018…

Melbourne is also fast becoming an economically and socially polarised city…

If Melbourne is divided into inner, middle and outer urban areas, each containing about one-third of the city’s jobs, the greatest share of the city’s population (46.6 per cent) lives in the outer local government areas (LGAs). This share is increasing as population grows rapidly, accounting for 57.5 per cent of the growth between 2011 and 2016.

At the same time, these outer LGAs have the fewest jobs per 1,000 residents. Many workers have to make long commuting trips, with associated congestion impacts.

Our newly published research examines the capacity of Melbourne residents to capture income, as well as the findings on some important social outcomes.

Over the 1992-2017 period, relative to Victorians as a whole, residents in each of the six fastest-growing outer Melbourne LGAs (Cardinia, Casey, Hume, Melton, Whittlesea and Wyndham) went backwards in terms of their share of income from economic activity…

Increasing inequality, social, congestion and productivity costs are linked with infrastructure spending that has been too low to meet the needs of the rapidly growing population. The research suggests a backlog of around A$125 billion to enable the six fastest-growing outer LGAs to achieve growth in gross regional product per resident of working-age population in line with the state average. Additional spending will be needed to cater for subsequent population growth and to tackle problems beyond the six outer growth LGAs, such as traffic congestion and crowded public transport…

The research does not take account of many other impacts of high population growth. Among these are the loss of ecosystem services, the loss of food-growing land through urban sprawl, increasing freshwater scarcity, and the transport sector’s greenhouse gas emissions. These issues all have impacts on productivity, health and well-being.

When I worked at the Victorian Treasury in 2006, the Government had recently released “Melbourne 2030”, which projected that Melbourne’s population would reach 5 million people by 2030. In 2010, the Government released “Melbourne Beyond 5 million”, which projected that Melbourne would add one million people in 15 years and warned that the city was not ready for this growth.

As we all know, Melbourne has smashed those projections, hitting 5 million people in 2018, 12 years earlier than projected in Melbourne 2030, after adding nearly 600,000 people in just the five years to 2018, thanks primarily to the federal government’s mass immigration ‘Big Australia’ policy:

Mass immigration economic apartheid is dividing Melbourne. And it’s only going to get worse according to Infrastructure Australia’s recent modelling, which shows that as Melbourne’s population surges to a projected 7.3 million people by 2046, traffic congestion and access to jobs, schools, hospitals and green space will all materially worsen regardless of how the city is built-out:

The only genuine solution to protecting Melbourne’s liveability and preventing further inequality is to lower immigration and prevent the city from transforming into a giant ghetto.

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  1. This is the way cities should develop. People with good jobs live near the sources of those jobs, and close to private schools and hospitals. House maids, gardeners and drivers commute into those areas from the fringes. There should probably be a giant security fence though, to make sure only those with actual business in the nice areas can come in.

    • Almost perfect. The only thing that is missing is that only the right sorts should be allowed to vote. There was a bit if a scare last Saturday and we need to prevent that from happening again.

  2. Isn’t it true that the Jimmy Grants that have arrived in those outer areas are enjoying a higher standard of living compared to where they came from, and that’s why they came here in the first place?

    • Not all of them by any means, A lot of pomz found out the hard way that the brochure image of living in Australia is in fact for the mega rich, sold up to buy a house in an area with 1/4 of the amenity they left, remembering that pomz that have immigrated in the last 20++ years are not the traditional dead broke council house poor that we got in the 50’s and 60′
      Also re the Indians, the vast majority come from the upper castes not the gutter and although a material difference in house size etc and perhaps other aspects the difference might not be as much as imagined
      Most importantly, the mass immigration is not improving the quality of life overall, it is degrading it with clogged roads, public transport, hospital queues and so on.. never mind trying to drive and park at the beach for the day. Also the sprawl is pig ugly

  3. We also know that just about every other rich nation has a slower immigration rate – including Canada!

    Some nations are even allowed to have shrinking populations – Portugal, Japan, Italy, etc.

    Italy had more people in 2011 than it does now! Would it honestly be better if it imported exam cheats en masse?

  4. I took a trip out to the outer west yesterday. Within 10 minutes of parking my car at a sports complex I had 2 windows smashed and property stolen. It’s already a ghetto out there.

  5. Like before 2003 or 1903 Melbourne was not divided between ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’.
    Egalitarianism is the biggest myth in Australia.
    In reality we still have quasi feudal economic system

    • We are however regressing. The swing to capital from labour has accelerated over the last 15 years or so and is now on par with around 1950. (and idiots keep voting for more of the same)

  6. Melbourne’s livability for less than very very wealthy was lost 20 odd year ago. The Victorian trade deficit on a per capita basis will make Tassie look like an economic power house

    • Very true, needing $800k++ to live somewhere near public transport and amenities that you might have taken for granted 20 years ago is now in the upper echelons of financial luck. The outer suburb, 3 cars per house dream is not really aspirable to unless you only like TV, McDonalds and driving 20kms on the weekend to Westfield. and thats not being snobby, its just plain facts.

  7. Sydney fairing a lot better. Australia’s first metro line opening this weekend. Most of the far outer suburbs have rail connection. The plagued Light Rail has finally begun testing in the CBD and could open as soon as December. Melbourne is sprawling more rather than going up in high rise though, unlike Sydney. Melbourne is where people are failing to settle on lots. Melbourne will be the epicentre of the crash and recession.

      • A biscuit factory, the epicentre of applied science, engineering and innovation (like Turnbul was talking about)