Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are on the backfoot following the dour return of Wall Street overnight with falls across the region as the USD regains against all the majors, with safe haven buying in Yen the biggest move as the Australian dollar teeters on edge.

The Shanghai Composite is the only standout, up slightly to 2914 points, while the Hang Seng Index has closed 0.5% lower to 27264 points, wiping out the very brief uptick to start the week. The daily chart still shows a deceleration pattern with a bottom potentially forming here at the 27000 point level but sentiment and momentum is way against it:

S&P and Eurostoxx futures are down 0.6% or so with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 chart suggesting a flop below the key terminal support level at 2800 points, which signals the completion of a very bearish head and shoulders pattern on the longer term charts:

Japanese share markets are off the most with the Nikkei 225 closing over 1% lower to 21003 points looking in a very weak position and restarting its corrective phase. This is mainly due to the fall in the USDJPY pair which is pushing lower to the 109 handle, making a new weekly low:

Australian stocks are falling in line with other risk assets with the ASX200 falling 0.7% to 6440 points unable to get back to previous support, now staunch resistance at 6500. The Australian dollar has been unable to break out of its tight support/resistance band but later in the session has fallen to just above the 69 handle as the risk-off signals start to mount:

The economic calendar continues with the German unemployment print and the latest Canadian central bank meeting.

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Comments

    • Greg Jericho, opinions aside, made an interesting point in the Guardian where the Liberals successfully tapped the regional Queensland’s unemployment against with a rehash of “jobs and growth”. While Labor was promising the future, to the bloke who’s been unemployed for a while the Libs and Nats were peddling false belief that Adani will deliver something soon was simple choice. We can mount every economic and environmental argument against Adani but the faint hope of a job is more appealing.

      • One of my family who lives in regional Qld told me that amongst the people they spoke to about the election outcome the common issue raised was Adani. Not so much about the jobs or the environment but more about the Bob Brown caravan that went into central Qld. As I’ve commented before, a lot of Qlders really detest it when southerners tell them what to do and think, and amongst some undecided voters at least this caravan escapade was the deciding issue. I suspect many from south of the Tweed totally misunderstand the strength of feeling this perceived interference evokes up north.

        The first state of origin game is on next Wednesday, to be played at Lang Park. For heaps of Qlders, it is much more than just a game of footy.

  1. yeborskyMEMBER

    Seems Ivan Milat’s a bit crook. I’d like to see a little alternative therapy applied to poor old Ivan. I would recommend he has a trip down Memory Lane to the depths of the Belanglo Forest where he would be buried up to his neck and have a large, aged portion of pork wrapped around his neck/chin and a good dollop of honey atop his head. I could go on but that seems a fair start. Perhaps a time-lapse photo system could be set up a la Peter Greenaway and we could have a squizz at how Ivan’s faring after 12 months or so with no more than a minute and a half’s interruption to lunch. Regrettably, no sound track.

    • haroldusMEMBER

      Time to get out Sins of the Brother.

      Best not have too good an imagination when reading that book.

      Bye bye ivan, this ending is more than you deserve.

    • It’s a tempting prospect, but I’d probably just hit him between the eyes with a hammer and be done with it. He’s definitely not worth the $0.10 worth of powder, brass and lead it would take to shoot him.

      • I’d be willing to donate a couple of packs of panadol and a stick to force feed him with.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      I love it when you talk dirty.

      Do you have any material on bank shares failing to pay dividends next year? Maybe a little something in securities?

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Maybe just whisper a little something about CEO bonuses being voted down by shareholders while I’m falling asleep?

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Thanks, it was good. Mirabile dictu. But three months ago would have been awesomer.

  2. To be a true bear on the housing market you have to objectively listen to all the bulls, give respect to their comments and not just dismiss them because you think they are assholes. Their philosophy differs to your own. They may be right. You have to understand what they are saying, give some credence to it. After objectively weighing up the arguments on either side and listening to as many bulls as bears then you are qualified to be a true bear. And vice versa.

    • When I moved back to Canberra in 2000 I bought a house off a bloke who owned a big video store chain here. He’d decided to upgrade his relatively modest circumstances to a palace more befitting a Titan of Industry like him. A couple of years later the internet started to eat his lunch, slowly at first, but steadily. I occasionally wonder what became of him.

    • Surely that Canberra video guy is on MB – he has a lot of free time, hasn’t left the shop in 8 years (he lives there) and he likes V for Vendetta. Actually on that last point, he’s probably on zero hedge.

  3. BradleyMEMBER

    HnH, you would like Alyse Morgan’s red hot go at a gas miner on the Business just now. The toady, was squirming but maintained the bs line of his masters. I honestly don’t know why every business commentator is not also having a go. Are they waiting for tens of thousands of jobs to be lost first?

    • As already displayed by the SMH, job losses will be associated with unions and nothing to do gas prices.