Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets have started the week in a generally upbeat mood, save for the ASX200 which finished with a scratch session due to a bounceback in the Australian dollar. The Trump-ABe meeting hasn’t produced any gaffes while the latest Chinese industrial profits result was a lot lower than expected, it had almost no impact on risk taking.

The Shanghai Composite surged after the long lunch session and closed nearly 1.4% higher to 2893 points, while the Hang Seng Index has closed with a near scratch session, up only a few points to 27367 points at least not making any new daily lows. The daily chart shows a deceleration pattern with a bottom potentially forming here at the 27000 point level:

Eurostoxx futures are steady with very light trading conditions already baked in due to the UK/US long weekend. The four hourly chart of the S&P500 chart shows a potential follow through after Friday’s bounce off terminal support at the 2800 point level but it remains to be seen if this can be turned into a swing play with significant resistance overhead at 2840 and the 2850 or so points:

Japanese share markets are up slightly with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.3% higher to 21182 points responding positively to the Abe/Trump meeting and Governor Kuroda’s recent comments. The USDJPY pair has finally pushed higher after a solid Monday morning open, now at the mid 109’s but nowhere near out of trouble:

Australian stocks went nowhere with the ASX200 falling a handful of points to remain solidly below the 6500 point barrier, closing at 6451 points. The blame could be put at the feet of the Australian dollar which is resurging alongside other undollars – including Bitcoin! – starting the week with a follow through from its Friday night swing play, currently at 69.40 going into the European session:

The economic calendar starts the week very slowly given that its a holiday in both the US and UK  with only a minor ECB speech to watch in Brussels, as all eyes will be on the outcome of the European Parliamentary elections.



      “Residential property prices are projected to recover from 2020-21 supported by strong population growth along with ongoing low interest rates,” budget papers say.

      “The recovery is expected to be gradual; historically, property market cycles are characterised by long-lived expansions and sharp, but shorter-lived downturns.”

      The same old trotted out justifications. Population growth is already at a record high, interest rates already at a record low, so why have they been falling now?

  1. Solar panels do not last for ever:

    Rex Leighton spent $8,000 installing a rooftop solar system in 2015, which he expected would last for at least 25 years.

    It only lasted four and a half years.

    And they start fires:

    25 fires in the Melbourne metropolitan area in the past five years that were started by problems with rooftop solar.

    Only a few brands of solar panels should be allowed on rooftops.

    And the fake Greens need to build large solar power stations in remote areas instead of promoting rooftop solar.

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        World war 2 was won by the industrial might of the United States ….helped by the industrial support of the UK and it’s old empire …….can’t help but think that we are seeing the first stages of neutering the industrial / technology abilities of identified adversities for World War 3

      • Uumm. I thought the USSR actually did a fair bit of the winning in Europe and whilst the Americans had beaten Japan to a pulp it was only the immiment arrival of Soviet troops to the north west of Japan that caused Japan to finally surrender.

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        T …agree that good thing Hitler made same mistake as Napoleon and sucked a lot of strength from his efforts ………but with out 12000 flying fortresses and the men and machines provided for D day he might still have prevailed ……………industry and technology wins wars …….we in Straya will learn that yet ………

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      “…a never-ending population boom.”

      A 2% rise in consumption. A 2% rise in population. Pfft…one trick ponies.

    • If they are pumping out these puff pieces, that means there is a good whiff of panic from those in the know. That’s the way I read it.

      • I think so too, puff pieces have been coming through thick and fast since the election plus all the rapid watering down of regulations…. something is seriously up. Even people I work with are concerned about the rba dropping IR, even the plebs know the economy is turning to crap atm

      • Gav

        The poster, Mark Lathams Brain, made this comment on the macquarie thread earlier today:

        “Here’s something for you – my partner works directly with the senior department heads, dep secs, and several ministers – they are absolutely catatonic over the budget, cuts are coming hard and fast, its seriously going pear shaped. ”

        He did not elaborate which jurisdiction he was referring to and hey, an anonymous poster on a blogsite, but …

      • I demand they reinstate stamp duty for FHBs in Victoria and NSW, no more exemptions. The states cannot afford it. 😀

  2. haroldusMEMBER

    Happily turning on the WC warmup game against SL, and who am I confronted with in commentary?

    Michael fn Clarke.

    I thought we were done with him.

    Fck me.