Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Finally a better day on Asian share markets with mixed results to finish the week, as risk sentiment remains very cautious. The USD is falling slightly against the major currencies with gold in particular moving higher while the Australian dollar remaining below 69 cents.

The Shanghai Composite barely moved and finished at 2853 points, while the Hang Seng Index lifted nearly 0.4% higher to 27361 points after yesterday breaking down to a new monthly low. This is nowhere near close enough to call it over with momentum still very oversold:

US and Eurostoxx futures are up slightly, about 0.3% higher in a bout of short covering. The four hourly chart of the S&P500 chart shows a nice bounce off terminal support at the 2800 point level but it remains to be seen if this can be turned into a swing play with significant resistance overhead:

Japanese share markets are down slightly with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.16% lower to 21117 points while the broader TOPIX finished with a scratch session. The USDJPY pair has failed again to push higher and made a new low for the week, now below the mid 109’s:

Australian stocks put in the worst session in the region with the ASX200 falling 0.5% to remain below the 6500 point barrier it burst earlier in the week, closing at 6456 points. The Australian dollar is trying to finish the week on a high note but is still depressed here below the 69 handle:

The economic calendar ends the week with US durable goods orders for April.

Have a good weekend!

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  1. AEC results, First preference votes:
    Labor 4,524,457
    Liberal 3,548,653.

    Clearly the ALP were on the right track.

    If only they got rid of Bill after he was rejected the first time.

      • Yes, and if the ALP formed a coalition w/ the Greens the LNP would be in permanent opposition. Perhaps they should.

        The LIB’s should bring in One Nation! Even better.

        Still. ALP has a much higher first preference vote than LIB. The loss has a lot more to do with a disliked Shorten than it has to do with disliked ALP policies.

      • Ortega – The libs and nats are cross proxies. They don’t compete a sitting seat unless there has been a retirement. I doubt you’d get the greens and labor to agree to something similar.

        And if they did I’m not sure how many Labor voters would like to be in the greeny camp.

      • Yes, Ian, the LNP game the system. Straya loses. But in the face of an existential threat to the entire biosphere, I’ll be pushing for the Green/ALP “system-gaming-3000” to root the LNP proper.

      • LAB 4,314,243.
        LNP 4,727,169
        AUS 0

        We need a third choice, anyone with half a brain and half a billion could do this. Australia’s political system is ripe for the picking.

      • Shawn – There is no third way. I voted Sustainable and look how they did via the aec link above.
        And for those hoping for an ALP comeback I don’t think Albo is the answer.

      • 901,495 …

        voted neither LNP, ALP or Green (which all have pro mass immigration policies)

        This number voted for the main parties outwardly opposing mass immigration (UAP, PHON, Anning, Katter, SAP).

        This number doesn’t include the voters for Independents that oppose mass immigration so the number is likely greater than 1 million – Australian voters that voted directly to STOP the mad immigration that’s destroying Australia.

        These voters are being ignored and even being labelled as rac1st by the major parties and the Australian mainstream media.

        In addition to this, continual surveys show that the majority of respondents consider that immigration levels need to be reduced but are continually ignored by government.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        I like Albo. But if Albo is the answer then I have know idea what the question’s.


        Would be very happy to be surprised by constructive policy announcements in the near future. But if Labor want to win, they won’t do that. Definitely a Catch ’22 election. 2022.

    • Yeah, but they lost. So the good policies will get chucked out with the bad policies, and any semblance of vision will get swapped for small target BS.

      Once Albo focus groups the sh!t out of his policy platform, f&ck knows what we’ll be left with.

      • I’m 100% convinced they lost because of the doosh Shorten. Who likes him? I have not met a single progressive person who does. Not one. Even die-hard ALP fans don’t like him, if they’re honest! Wasted years.

      • I neither liked him, nor loathed him. The fact that he was so beige was his most appealing characteristic to me. Even disagreed with a lot of what he stood for and promoted he looked like he was interested in and could do the job. Give me bland and capable over a charismatic con every day of the week.

      • Fu K me dead. I’ll put my hand up and say I like him. I don’t get this nobody likes Shorten to hell with the country meme. Sure he lacked a little charisma, but he was a darn sight better than talking tongues ScoMo. My gawd..

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        I heard an ABC lady on the wireless today saying OL Bill lacked Scummo’s sincerity and honesty.

      • Gavin, you say you like him ‘but’ (most people say ‘but’). Don’t underestimate charisma. It’s yuge.

        Footsore, I agree. But you make my point. I’d say there’s probably more everyday strayans who dislike ‘beige’ than the opposite.

        Can someone honestly come on here and say he was a bloody awesome candidate? The man couldn’t even mask his serious faults with good ol Auzzie boofheaded numptiness like Morrison.

      • Re Mining Bogan’s comment: The most important thing is honesty. Once you can fake that, you’ve got it made.

      • SweeperMEMBER

        I like him. He isn’t a pompous Beazley type and I liked that he didn’t have charisma whatever that is.
        “Nobody likes Shorten” is just another Murdoch invention.

      • It is not even about Shorten. They lost because they have lost their way and became a tryhard fake Greens social warrior globalist loving party. Working people don’t want this crap, they want stable or reduced immigration, increased wages, medicare and high house prices. No one except for inner city tryhards want more refugees, increased donations overseas, elderly migrants clogging medicare, I could go on.

      • SweeperMEMBER

        They lost because of Murdoch.
        Had nothing to do with their policies. Had nothing to do with their leader.
        It was all Murdoch. The polls weren’t wrong, they were right up until the last week where the Murdoch election campaign finally scared people enough. “housing tax”, “retiree tax”, “the bill you can’t afford” blah blah blah. pensioners thinking they were going to be taxed. All Murdoch.

    • Clearly coal is more competitive than solar power. I wish solar panels were $10 each but they are not.

      Waleed gets it:

      Climate change simply doesn’t drive votes in the suburbs, where it apparently ranks as a third or fourth order issue

      Perhaps the most pronounced example of this was in the NSW coal mining seat of Hunter, where Labor lost over 14 per cent of its primary vote.

      This was very likely a pro-coal, pro-Adani vote. These are communities where opposition to coal on climate grounds sounds very much like a heartless desire to see them unemployed and impoverished.

      The ALP did not give an income guarantee to the coal miners nor give the rest of us a $2000/year rebate on our residential electricity bills. And they wonder why they won just one federal election in the last 25 years.

      • Waleed doesn’t get it.

        ALP lost because people are sick of people like Waleed telling them how they should think and that they are racialist when they want lower immigration and stopping the !slamification of Australia.


        Hmm scomo maybe very much like Trump in the Midwest. Communities crumbling and screaming unintelligibly into the ether following the inevitable decline of industry via entropy and malaise. Drugs play a part, in the downfall and to fill the void. In Appalachia it’s the oxy, in Oz now it’s the ice.

        “The report, released on Wednesday, found Queensland’s average methylamphetamine consumption had increased in capital city and regional sites between April 2018 and August 2018.

        Ice use is hitting regional communities particularly hard.
        Ice use is hitting regional communities particularly hard.

        The use of other drugs including cocaine increased in regional areas, defying the national trend, which found in all other states drug use in regional areas went down.”

  2. Mark Lathams Brain

    Apple was threatened by China.

    Basically Apple stock was already down around 17% – and with 30% of iPhone sales coming from China revenue would have been smashed.

    The threat from China would have seen supply chains severely disrupted and Tim Cook basically acknowledged that there would be no way that Apple would be able to meet the annual flag ship release schedule, and a full transition of its supply chain to would take three years.

    Not meeting the annual release schedule would have literally been the end for Apple as a competitor in the cut throat smart phone sector with Huawei now leading Samsung, with Apple well and truly behind the pace in the three majors.

    Trump has since back peddled (Thanks to Tim “Apple” Cook having a “meeting” with Trump) and declared Huawei could now, again, be considered as part of a trade deal with the US.

    Soooo – its not stealing tech or spying on people anymore.

    Great news – crisis averted ???

    • A repatriation of those supply chains would be worth more to the US economy than Apple.

      Also, Apple has quite a few billion in the bank…I don’t think it’s imminently at risk.

      Not following your argument….

      So you’re saying Tim Cook is influencing US economic policy and national security?

    • As Mike Tyson once said: “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth”. Donny bone-spurs should not expect the Chinese to stick to queensbury’s rules in the months ahead (as exemplified by those two Canadians who were living in China and were charged with espionage after the Canucks arrested the Huawei daughter).

      Also, I see Trumpy is sending $16b to help all those midwest farmers who can no longer sell their crops to China.

    • Apple is a hedge fund run out of Reno NV, vestigial tail is shrinking by dint of increasingly crappie product.

      • That rum is legal while possession of amphetamines risk imprisonment is one of the great unsolved mysteries.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        A fine road to travel. For those banned from Bundy rum there’s the Accadacca bourbon and tequila and for the more refined I believe there was a Motorhead Shiraz.

        Always suspected Lemmy was a red man.

      • @ footy. Rum is bloody great stuff. You need to get out more. And no coke either. Straight.

      • LSWCHP,
        I agree. It’s the first choice when out and about. It definitely does keep one out and about when all else are heading towards nodsville. The Thruston and Bundy Combination was just too good to not comment upon.

    • haroldusMEMBER

      This has started me thinking, what other synergy could be achieved?

      Peroni clownshoes edition.
      Grange truffles edition.

    • DingwallMEMBER

      Sigh … love how the southern clowns lump all of Qld as One Nation loving rednecks……… I think we should build a wall ……

    • They certainly werren’t going to make a limited edition JT ‘C00n’ cheese were they

      • MB,
        Autnie Bob puts on a good show. This version of the Cure is probably the best since 1989. The drummer has finally learnt how to keep a beat and Reeves Gabriel is a phenomenal guitarist. When I saw them in 2016 I kept thinking of Robert Fripp and Reeves was Bowie’s guitarist for a few years. Dude can stand still and make a guitar talk like none other I’ve seen. I was hesitant to catch them but very glad that I did.

    • Excellent news. I haven’t seen a head on a pike for the longest time. I hope they start with Strzok.

    • It’s really hard to see him as anything more than the better con. Yes plays a crowd far better than May or Corbyn could. By that measure Jonathan Pie could make a successful political run that would wipe out Farage. Farage’s sell is that I’m against the institutions. That really shouldn’t be enough but unfortunately it is. Britain deserves a better rebel.