See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

The bounceback is getting a bit wobbly here in Asia with confidence not returning in full as expected. Japanese stocks are down while Chinese bourses are treading water, as local stocks are bid as the Australian dollar falls in the wake of a “surprise” lift in unemployment.
The Shanghai Composite is floating along here, currently up 0.25% to 2945 points while in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index is not doing much better, up only 0.15% or so to 28317 points. Momentum was clearly way oversold and is coming back to a swing play but there’s a lot of daylight overhead to fill with not much buying support as yet:

US and Eurostoxx futures are falling back in the wake of a poor close in Tokyo with both down around 0.3% as the four hourly S&P500 chart shows a desire to swing higher, but trailing resistance at 2890 points maybe too far a hurdle:

Japanese share markets are not able to withstand a stronger Yen, with the Nikkei 225 taking back the previous session gains to close 0.59% lower at 21062 points. The USDJPY pair has been pushed down slightly to mid 109’s as it fails to make any new daily high – watch the low moving average and former lows at the 109.30 for signs of an inversion:

Australian stocks have done well in the wake of the unemployment print with the ASX200 lifting 0.7% to be at 6327 points. This is all due to the Australian dollar which remains on a nice downtrend falling again to another new low and threatening the 69 cent handle proper:

The economic calendar is relatively quiet tonight with housing figures from the ‘States and not much else although there are a few ECB secondary speeches to keep an eye out for.
- Macro Afternoon - January 28, 2021
- Macro Morning - January 28, 2021
- Macro Afternoon - January 27, 2021
Go Xero! (ASX:XRO) go you good thing!!!
Macquarie says 1 in 25 loans are under water. I thought we are already in the 1 in 15 territory and fast approaching 1 in 10.
Q1 data maybe?
Apparently there are at least 400 homes on Darwin that are being prepared for foreclosure sales.
But but but…. the Peachystan constitution clearly states that banks will never foreclose on the hordes, lest they panic the stupids. What gives?
The question is at what rate will they be put to market? Nothing is selling up here so they won’t be putting them out there at once.
if banks take too long those 400 will become 800 if economy continues to slow down.Yes, I doubt banks will dump all 400 at once but they will not be dragging it for long either.
It will be dictated by the rate of how many new defaults are popping. Also, I am sure, banks will be talking to the new government on Sunday for possible bailouts.
@ ino
But but but…. the Peachystan constitution clearly states that banks will never foreclose on the hordes, lest they panic the stupids. What gives?
Peachystan say wut now??? only warns off bullshee price CRASHES CRASH CRASH CRASH CRASHES…
darwin gives.. like perf gives..simples
Something that hasn’t been discussed for a while – are we still waiting for Australia’s AAA rating to be stripped, or is that no longer a thing as everyone acknowledges that government capacity to create debt is infinite?
It may become a thing but not while the budget balance sheet is relatively strong – booming corporate tax revenues at present and capacity to stimulate us there – now that could change if the economy goes truly belly up but not yet.
+1
ask moodys fitch….or any other corrupt kvnt…hell ask me
nails it: https://www.mnn.com/your-home/at-home/stories/where-are-baby-boomers-going-live-when-they-get-old
You say that article nails it. I say it is way off the mark. NIMBY is growth lobby propaganda, shaming residents to achieve an outcome. Younger generations have been conned into believing perpetual population growth is the way to go and now attempting to solve the wrong problem.
and here we go……..throwing each other under the bus….lol……
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/05/comey-turns-on-brennan-fired-fbi-chief-claims-brennan-pushed-junk-dossier-in-ic-report-video/
hint……they are both in deep trouble, and will be lucky to just get a long sentence behind bars. One…maybe both…could be in for a charge of treason.
both
Things travelling fast now……swamp draining time…..
https://twitter.com/M2Madness/status/1128842606073516032
comey report due…..IG report due…….declass due…….Huber report expected soon………
would be interesting to see The Prince’s reaction. MB has still a chance to be among the first mainstream media to join the audience enjoying the show.
flooding his beer with tears I reckon….
Nothing is going to happen
Just like nothing happened to Hilary or trump
It’s entertainment/distraction for incel shut-ins
I’m only part way through but this is already very good.
https://thejollyswagmen.com/new-blog/chrisjoye
Topics discussed
Does Chris think the RBA was complicit in blowing a huge housing bubble? [5:34]
What does Chris think is the likely extent of falls in Australian house prices? [9:26]
Chris believes the Australian housing market is facing an ‘orderly correction’. [16:27]
How does Chris define ‘bubble’? [19:55]
The centrality of speculation and why Joe is reluctant to rely on Joiner’s analysis. [27:56]
Responsible lending. [42:24]
Differences and similarities between the Irish and Australian housing bubbles. [45:31]
The wealth effect. [50:35]
Investor expectations can precipitate big changes in house prices. [52:21]
Why Chris may have underestimated his house prices falls if Labor comes to power. [59:46]
The unique characteristics of housing markets that generate inefficiency and downward price rigidity. [1:02:20]
Looking fwd to it. So far all their podcasts in “housing bubble week” have been excellent.
+1
In that debate with John Adams, Chris didn’t even acknowledge a bubble still exists. Chris presented a graph that “demonstrated” that prices had fallen to meet repayments at current mortgage rate levels. No acknowledgement of tighter credit post RC.
I am curious to see if Chris contradicts himself in this interview.
You won’t be disappointed
It’s an interesting listen.
that was a great podcast. Finally this debate is getting to the point where it should have been all along.
ie. on a *valuation* basis. Not the idiotic a priori false argument along the lines, its a bubble because interest rates, zoning, population, credit …
No its a bubble because the asset trades well above its intrinsic value. That is why it will burst.
And see how the whole conversation changes once you frame the topic correctly. All of a sudden Joye is on the backfoot compared to the first round knockout he gave Adams.
Joye made a couple of good points. eg. trying to better define speculation. But he is wrong that it should be defined as expectation of unrealistic CG. Definition is *expectation of CG not supported by a realistic forecast of cash flow on a terminal basis* – ie. if the asset was held forever. If the asset is at intrinsic value expected growth in P = expected growth in E. So he is wrong that Buffet buys based on CG expectation, he is buying based on E growth expectations which can be realised in the CG when sold – as he isn’t planning on holding forever.
Joye was also quick to define the intrinsic value based on houshold income. But you can’t do that because it’s an unrelated cash flow. Houses return rent not household income.
Ultimately the question which needs to be put to Joye is why he thinks the gross rental yield on the median house in any random suburb in the south east of Melbourne is equal to or less than the 10y yield, is it because:
1) cash flows are safer
2) houses are more liquid than second most liquid asset in country
3) never before seen rental growth is priced in (when rents can only plod along with GDP)
4) there is a bubble.
Wow, this analysis appears to be written for primary school children. Has our population gotten this retarded?
https://www.news.com.au/finance/markets/australian-dollar/australian-dollar-plunges-to-new-low-of-694-us-cents/news-story/ad907e8609092236429315c3ef8cc790
I believe your question is answered by Jacob’s post below. Wonderful juxtaposition.
btw, what’s your definition of “gotten”?
Yes.
There was a poster in the Couier Mail news room that said: “Remember, you are writing for 12 year olds.”
12 would more likely be the IQ of a Courier Mail reader.
That’s still twice the reading age / IQ of the editorial staff.
Step One: Get a limo.
He was from head office. Wasn’t pretending to be the owner of multiple franchises, or an illegal labour smuggler.
Head office is in bumfcuk nowhere, outer Brisbane. If he arrived in a late model Camry he could have passed for Head Office.
Just select the limo option on Uber.
Everyone can be a crook/ Hero …….just for one day ……..https://youtu.be/xEqSOst1dg8
It’s all been done.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyvRamX1VyA
Sneaking in EVERYWHERE for FREE (Yellow Vest Experiment)
ha ha ha
Cinema, zoo, amusement park.
If AUS still had motor shows, you may be able to get in for free!
This is both a bit of a wanky idea but seriously cool. Tesla beta car summoning… Though I guess, if they wanna go autonomous, this is pretty basic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZdnM3F6ydw&feature=youtu.be
Being able to remotely control a car from 20 to 40 metres away would be good for 4 car households. The neighbour has 2 cars in the garage and 2 cars on the driveway.
Vale Bob Hawke
Pity it wasn’t Keating. And Howard. And Costello. And Abbott… etc etc
With all that alcohol still flushing around in veins consumed in his younger wild years they better be careful if he wanted to be cremated.
Top guy, despite his many personal failings.
I would think news of his passing this close to the election will only favour the ALP vote, at the expense of the LNP
Due to the sympathy vote? I can sort of understand the sympathy vote in Pakistan after Benazir Bhutto was assassinated.
But a sympathy vote here? For a man who was not assassinated? Then surely Rudd should have won the 2013 election. (because Rudd was knifed and we saw him crying before TV cameras the next day)
On 16 June 2016, an anti-Brexit MP was assassinated and Britons still voted for Brexit.
…. on hearing the news scummo makes a phone call to the Howard residence checking to see how the rodent is sleeping these days …
It’s already happening, the tv stations are reminiscing about Labor achievements (deemed progressive) in the 1980’s, the accord, Medicare etc.
Such media coverage about past achievements can only help today’s Labor party, as if today’s Labor deserve to be associated with 1980s Labor that is debatable
Jacob, Hawkie was truly a man of the people. Chugging schooners of beer at sporting events and declaring a public holiday for a yacht race (yacht race !) has permanently endeared him to a large swathe of lower and even middle class Australia
@triage – hilarious, hopefully the rodent is having trouble passing a few kidney stones. 😀
I think Thallus is right, it reminds voters that Labor is not just automatically disastrous and gives them some warm associations (a few might also muse that even ex union bosses can be good PMs!).
It might make a small difference at the margins. In an election that might yet be very closely, perhaps that will help.
As for Abbott trying to claim Hawkey as a Liberal – that is in such poor taste I can’t see it doing anything but losing him a bit more support in his electorate. What a tin eared goose.
@Gavin
More to the point, I hope his kidney stones are in the shape of tomb-stones…
@Arrow2
I always saw Abbott as portrayed by Oglaf (very NSFW)
vale Robert James Lee Hawke
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-16/bob-hawke-dies-former-australian-prime-minister-and-labor-leader/6562902
🙁
Hey, the timing of the man. End of an era, wow, just wow
Chinese payroll goes down a bit today too …..
…” labor legend “………yes indeed …,,
auction his Tux …it was well worn
..sucking up to the big end of town …….a true labour man of the people
For all his fault, his act of allowing Chinese students to stay in Australia after Tiannaman Square massacre in 1989 was one of the most compassionate act by an Australian politician.
https://speakola.com/political/bob-hawke-tiananmen-square-massacre-memorial-1989
A Sad Day.
In spite of Hawke and Keatings roll in our journey down the Neoliberal pathway Hawke was a better PM than any who have followed him.
Could you imagine ScoMo doing us proud like Hawke does here in this Speech to The US Congress in 1988.
https://youtu.be/LikknzEX9ZQ
Hawkie doesn’t get started untill about 2 and a half mins in.
Can anyone guess my favorite Comment in the comments section of the above clip.
Two men once accused of butchering tourists sat in American legal limbo for years—until another country agreed to welcome them.
That country is Australia!
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/05/15/australia-elections-rwanda-prisoners-refugee-swap-us-226875
But we will decide which suspected murderers come to this country and the circumstances in which they come.
Gold.
I’m calling it: au-pairs!
I’m really looking forward to the next Project interview with ScoMo (yeah, I know)…
Mr Ex-PM, just how many murderers and rapists do we have exactly on…
QANTAS flights coming to Australia that your Government paid the airfares for?
REALLLLLLY looking forward to that.
Just watched an Alan Greenspan interview on Fox Business which runs on the Your Money Channel after hours on Foxtel. Looks like that’s it for the Your Money channel. At 1am the program guide reads “”YM Transmission Ends – LIVE! It was nice doing business with you. From the team at YM.””…………….The subsequent programs all read “”Thank you for watching. Please tune to Sky News for all of your financial news needs.””…………….yibbida, yibbida, That’s All Folks!
I s’pose that channel should’ve been titled: ‘Your Debt’…
Clownshoes!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7036421/Tony-Abbott-joins-tributes-Bob-Hawke-statement-jibes-Labor.html
Oh me! Oh my! Oh dear!
https://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/major-lender-swings-axe-on-loans-for-flammable-cladding-buildings-20190516-p51nvw
Nice. It’s taken bloody years for this to finally play out.
This makes me happy, in a very sad sort of way.
This is getting serious.
Hoorah.
It’s not called the FIRE industry for nothing!