Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar quivers with stock bubble

The risk off sentiment is growing with Asian share markets falling across the board, except locally, as the USDJPY pair hits a three month low. Its all about how Trump can keep his mouth shut during the upcoming US/China talks, although news of another missile launch in North Korea is adding to the volatility.

The Shanghai Composite has fallen 1.5% to close at 2850 points, now in correction territory. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index fell even further, down 2.2% to 28349 points, with price slumping right down to the weekly support near the 28000 point level:

US and Eurostoxx futures are down over 0.6% with the four hourly chart of the S&P 500 still unable to stabilise here after a steady series of lower lows as price remains well below the previous terminal resistance level at 2900 points:

Japanese share markets continued to fall, with the Nikkei 225 closing 1% lower to 21402 points and adding to the monthly lows. The USDJPY pair appears in near free fall on the NK launches, falling straight through the 110 handle, and sending a clear risk off indicator as trailing resistance overhead and momentum remain negative:

Australian stocks were still the best performers, with the ASX200 climbing 0.4% or so to 6295 points in a strange risk inversion session. The culprit or hero depending on your view is the Australian dollar which has fallen in a series of lower lows, now at the 69.70 level and ready to hit the Monday morning gap open price:

The economic calendar includes a few Federal Reserve speeches, the US trade balance and initial weekly jobless claims.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


  1. The Traveling Wilbur


    Just like the ASX today (to go and stay green!). Tomorrow may not be so rosy.

  2. Looks like the AUD really is just a proxy for China. It’s not liking the trade talks.

    • Wonder how much they slugged him for power. And where will he stop crossing the nullabor. Good to see that he says he isn’t having trouble getting power in remote towns. Excellent to see motels stepping up to the challenge. I really want a leccy car for my next one. Only thing that worries me is towing my little camper how much extra power it might use. Being in WA generally means lot’s of k’s if you want to go country.

    • Think I’ll give that one a miss . it would be a very expensive tow truck if any miscalculation is made.

    • In fairness Jimny’s are not very fuel efficient all things considered. Around town and city yes absolutely, but on the freeway and long drives they are not very good. I found that with such restricted boot space, I had to use a roof basket which is not very aerodynamic and with the big lab in the back and the missus in the car traveling at 110km/h resulted in just over 4000rpm in 5th gear. The fuel tank in a Jimny is about 40L and I’d have to fill up at least 3 tanks worth between Sydney and Melbourne.

      My new stead the Nissan Stagea 260RS (RB26DETT) twin turbo producing 300HP and 2.6ltr straight 6 managed to go from Holbrook to Inner West Sydney on 1 tank with spirited driving on the hume hwy up hills and booting it along the freeway at times (not always off boost), with a boot full of luggage, dog in the car and the wife next to me. I got to Sydney at just under 500km’s and no fuel light on (but the gauge was reading just near the empty marker). I think the Stagea is a 50L or 60L tank.

      Given how hard it was to drive the Jimny on the freeway compared with the Stagea, it was worth spending a little extra on fuel.

      I’d like to road trip a Tesla and see how it goes with long distance drives. I considered doing a novated lease, but decided I didn’t want to be stuck in my current job just to service payments etc..

      Jimny = great around town. Long drives not so much.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        We thought ahead and chose somewhere to live on an upper floor… and a blue gondola.

    • Funny but this was why I was looking at Christmas Hills in Victoria. I figured if climate changes goes bad, being 10 acres (about 30kms from the city) would be an advantage, water tanks, sustainable solar + grow your own food etc.. Plus it was on an elevation.

      • You can see how big the land was in the floor plan overview, the house was a tiny fraction of it.
        The house in the photos was nothing special, but in person there was a real magical feel about the land and layout. Plus 2 damns and a creek running through the bottom with fresh trout in it! Not far behind it was sugar loaf water reserve too.

        Maybe it’s a bit doomsday prepper, but I just have a feeling in the next 50 years things will turn to custard.

  3. SweeperMEMBER

    Don Brash’s comment that the RBA should lower the inflation target is incredible. zero interest rate traps, negative bond yields, mass unemployment, exploding public debt, 11 years staring into the deflationary abyss and no tools left for policy makers to manage it (to the point where insane ideas like MMT get a look in). But yeah let’s just lower the inflation target, lock in a lost half century and reward the RBA for failing to do their job for 3 1/2 years.

  4. SweeperMEMBER

    The free pass Phil Lowe is getting from the media is also amazing.
    He has measurably failed to do his job for 3 1/2 years and is still refusing to do it. He is choosing a policy of higher unemployment. It is as simple as that.
    Yet Stevens was roundly criticised for doing his job trying to keep unemployment from rising after the mining boom because of housing bubble fears. In other words people care more about housing than preventing recessions.

    • Funny, Dr Demografriedchicken was saying the other day that she has never seen an international be caught for cheating. I guess fraud is quite different!

      • True story…
        I took myself back to Uni as a mature age student in 1996 to get a new start because my previous career had been torpedoed by digital disruption. I was a photographer doing highly-paid large-format film-based studio work; suddenly my skills and experience were worth much less because of digital and photoshop. So I decided to learn IT and join the enemy. Anyway, that’s in the past…
        So, I was at LaTrobe Uni doing IT in the late 90’s and “academic misconduct” was already a big deal. Vibrancy is very big at LaTrobe. The common knowledge was that vibrants from the Indian sub-continent were the biggest misconductors. One day I was approached by a vibrant young chap of said sub-continental persuasion and he asked me if I could help him please. Sure, I said. So he flourished a print-out and asked me, could I please explain what this piece of code here does? It took about 5 seconds of looking through the code he proffered for the realisation to slowly dawn that he was showing me a printout of my own one generation-old code. I told him to f*ck off and snatched the printout before he could react. He looked totally dismayed, like…now what am I going to do?
        The thing is, if the duplicate of my code had been detected by a marker of the assignments, I would have been in deep shit, just as much as this stealing [email protected] and all his sub-continental mates who were sharing my code for their assignments. It’s very hard to prove lack of complicity. I reported the incident, of course, with not too much sympathy. Shit happens.
        It must be much worse these days, much, much…

    • did you see the big childcare scam in nsw?? fake kids and centres just taking $$$ from the feds. based on the channel 9 footage they were vibrants given all the headscarves on the females ….

      we are importing criminals by the planeload. plus ca change!!!

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Yeah. Send those pesky Mennonites back to the Netherlands where they came from. Such brilliant logic.


  5. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    … ITALY …

    Pack your bags. A town in Italy is selling homes for just over US$1 … Star com

    HONG KONG (SCMP): There is no doubting Hong Kong’s reputation as the world’s most expensive city to own a house in. But halfway across the world in the town of Mussomeli, in central Sicily, residents are selling abandoned houses for €1 (US$1.12) each.

    People may see it as a cruel joke, but Valeria Sorce, a property agent in Mussomeli told the Post that more than 100 houses in the town’s old quarter were indeed being sold as advertised on the website, … read more via hyperlink above …

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Got to wait for the OK from the IPA. Can’t sack anyone wothout permission from the boss.

    • After this many it can’t be a vetting issue for the parties.The should be asking “Why are we attracting these people?” not “How did they get pre-selected?”.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Ans to Q1: if you’re an aspiring narcissistic sociopath with little regard for your public image who seeks real power and/or influence, who else you gonna vote for?

        Ans to Q2: See above.

      • A couple of years ago the Queensland Liberals state conference voted their number one policy priority was to ban the burka. Really, that was the most pressing issue in Queensland above youth unemployment, infrastructure etc? Then take a look at the Young Liberals. The whole system is riddled with fvcktards and morons.

  6. Anyone else just gobsmacked by Liverpool and Spurs’ performances this week – the latter just astounding, with a hat trick from someone I’ve never heard of? And Liverpool faced off Courtino, Suarez and Messi (none of whom managed to score)!!

    Two matches for the ages and both have highlights up on the tube