Macro Afternoon

A sea of red across risk markets here in Asia as they continue to react to the Trump/China trade battle. There was some stability in currency markets, except in Kiwi as the RBNZ cut rates, while gold prices lifted slightly.

The Shanghai Composite has fallen below 2900 points, down over 1% to 2893 points to add to its woes from the 6%+ loss in the previous sessions. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index fell even further, down 1.3% to 28982 points, with price slumping through to the previous local support at the 29000 point level:

US and Eurostoxx futures are up slightly with the four hourly chart of the S&P 500 trying to stabilise here after a steady series of lower lows as price remains just below the previous terminal resistance level at 2900 points:

Japanese share markets continued to fall, with the Nikkei 225 closing 1.5% lower to 21602 points and now down to a monthly low. The USDJPY pair is also in free fall with a very small bounce above the 110 handle, still sending a clear risk off indicator as trailing resistance overhead and momentum remain negative:

Australian stocks were still the best performers, relatively speaking, with the ASX200 falling only 0.4% or so to 6269 points. The Australian dollar is stabilising here post the RBA meeting, taking a small bid on the Kiwi fall, remaining slightly above the 70 handle creating a symmetrical triangle on the four hourly chart:

The economic calendar includes German industrial production figures for March and a speech by Mario Draghi in Frankfurt, plus another round of DOE oil inventories.

Comments

  1. https://www.9news.com.au/national/a-current-affair-property-market-prices-values-drop-experts-say-when-buy-sell-outlook-latest-news-australia/0b1f8fec-cf5e-4895-b801-3cd9108d5e01

    Ola Zaryzycki, 63, saw her house sell for $300,000 less than it had been valued at only a year earlier.

    It was heartbreaking, absolutely heartbreaking,” she said.

    In the past 12 months in Brisbane, prices in Karalee have risen by more than six percent, but have crashed in Carole Park.

    I guess she decided to “give it away”..

    • Arrow2MEMBER

      Nice.

      The thing about rollercoasters is it doesn’t matter how high they go, they finish at the lowest point.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      My “not going to give it away” lady is cracking slowly but surely. Has dropped the asking range from $620-660k to $600-660k. No idea why they wouldn’t drop the top price. They must know that has sailed. December they would have got low 600s but no, musta had 650+ in their grey heads.

      $560 around the corner has set the mark. These folk are old. It can’t be good for their health to watch that much money slide away.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Think how much we’d all save in tax though if they got that extra 60K+.

        0.

      • Arrow2MEMBER

        Well it’s certainly good for my health. Makes my heart all nice and warm.

        I’ve never understood the “price range” thing. Who offers the top price if they give a range? If you offer the bottom price do they say “no”? (Of course they could lie and say someone else has offered more, but they can do that without a price “range” and usually do…!)

      • DominicMEMBER

        Loving it. I’ve seen these types before. They walk their ‘ask’ price down but always sit above the the price they could ordinarily achieve in the hope of scoring a pyrrhic victory by ‘selling above the market’. These people could literally follow the market all the way down to their max pain threshold before pulling the trigger.

        There’s an old trading floor saying — the first cut is the cheapest.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Dominic, about four or five years ago I told a room full of Perth ‘investors’ that the first offer is the best offer just as a stir. Man, they went me hard. Who was I to doubt successful property entrepreneurs.

        Betcha now they wish they’d listenened to the idiot.

  2. Roger Montgomery reported a meeting with one of the nation’s top 20 resi builders and how their monthly starts have halved from 120 to 60. In the space of six months brickies have gone from naming their price to cold calling this builder looking for jobs. Definitely accords with what I’m seeing among tradie mates working the west of Melbourne. Could barely get them to come over and make a start a year ago, now they’re telling me they’ve ordered all the materials for the next phase of my job – not due till end of this year at the earliest. Hint Hint Jimbo!

    • Good. Building / construction trades are going to start making beautiful developments to the unemployment rate soon and that’s when things are really going to get funny. Then, the RBA will finally cut, dollar to solid mid-low 60s, house prices “easing” but catastrophically so, and super funds are going to be pounded. Franking credits will be the least of the boomers’ worries when their capital is decimated. Just waiting for that unemployment rate to start “trending up” then it’s on.

      • DominicMEMBER

        Throw in several thousand ‘skilled’ migrants landing on these shores every month hoping to strike it rich in the ‘lucky country’.

        Just reading an article on the gig economy in the US — turnover of up to 500% in some sectors. Low pay, grinding work. Uber, Lyft etc. The nightmare is only beginning.

  3. The Traveling Wilbur

    Warning: Went long ASX this arvo. This has not gone well for me of late. So look out below in the short – medium term is all I can say*.

    *Past performance (most recent) IS a GOOD indicator, given lack of shirt, of future shirtlessness.

    • Arrow2MEMBER

      What’s your thinking Wilbs? Contrarian play? Risk off selloff went too far and we’re due a bounce back?

      Or just averse to shirts?

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        I think (bar Brexit) all the bad news is pretty much in for now and there’s a good chance of further highs on the S&P500 in the coming months, plus lower AUD (go RBA, pleeeeeeease) – all ASX positive. And even MB reckons IO to the moon (spot) from here for a while to come (Brazilian issues etc.) on top of that.

        And the ASX has had a shltty two-week run. And March is now behind us (not that that mattered a damn this year).

      • Arrow2MEMBER

        Hmm. Possibly a wave of domestic economic bad news yet to come Wilbs.

        I’m on the point of selling my small remaining ASX holdings… will need the cash to buy a house in a while, no rush but I’m really only holding off selling because I don’t want the CG tax bill this FY … still, in the long run the only way of avoiding CGT is to sell right after you lose everything 😂 so really not ideal to delay too long!

    • Thanks for the tip, I just dropped our super to cash only… Thanks to your acumen Im already up over 9.5% over the last 12 months.

      • TheRedEconomistMEMBER

        I did the same today.

        I was 100% International shares for most the past 5 years. This morning I moved to 50% Cash and 50% Gixed interest.

    • DominicMEMBER

      I’m on the other side of your trade. Sorry, but I’ve been rolled by this relentless surge in stocks for so long I need to get back into the green at some point. The China trade agreement hope is toast — Xi has no intention of giving in and thinks Trump is the weakling here i.e. stocks fall enough he’ll fold.

  4. Arrow2MEMBER

    So apparently there is another Leaders Debate on tonight… I have ignored them all for the same reason I don’t watch Q and A – hate watching people ignore the real issues, make smarmy points and either deliberately obfuscate the truth or simply reveal that they have no f#cking idea.

    Can’t wait for this election to be over. And I don’t love the Opposition but I hate the current PM and his backers so much I hope they get thoroughly eviscerated.

    /rant mode off

    • Know IdeaMEMBER

      I presume from your comments that it was, in fact, possible to find two leaders to participate. However, I do remain a little confused, as the nature of the activities you described do not seem to fit well with my understanding of the characteristics required by a person to qualify as a leader.

      • Arrow2MEMBER

        Nice point and elegantly made. Perhaps the debate was over whether we will, at some point in the medium term future, actually find a leader. But I don’t know because I didn’t watch it.

    • I just watched BS (hehe) on Q&A Monday night, I thought he did really well actually. Much better than ScoMo would have…worth a watch.

  5. triageMEMBER

    I really have no idea what they are referring to here …

    “Falwell, president of Liberty University, one of the world’s largest Christian universities, said someone had come into possession of what Cohen described as racy “personal” photographs — the sort that would typically be kept “between husband and wife,” Cohen said in the taped conversation. ”

    Do husbands really send d!ck photos to their wives (or mothers as Mike Pence would have it)? Some upskirting perhaps? A nurse or schoolgirl shoot? Anyway Michael Cowen apparently kept one of the “personal” photos for safe keeping so it’s all good.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics-falwell-exclusive/exclusive-trump-fixer-cohen-says-he-helped-falwell-handle-racy-photos-idUSKCN1SD2JG

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      If I had the power to ban people from throwing their balls about in public and shining them up with steel wool, well…

      But enough about Australian cricket. Sounds like the Betoota Advocate wrote that one.

    • Hang on, Mrs we’re not full is complaining about a lack of space on a tram? Asking for a seat? Oh right.. just add more vibrants, that will fix the problems.

      • Have to get this guy in for the LOLs.

        Imagine discussions with the crossbench – “We’re going to negotiate with Max Dicks.”

        Someone will surely ask Penny Wong if she likes Max Dicks. We already know what Jacqui Lambie would say.

      • Can we vote in a Ben Dover? Along with Max Dicks that would make for an awesome front bench. 😀