Macro Afternoon

With mainland Chinese and Japanese stock markets closed its been a weak finish here in Asia going into the weekend with the Australian dollar making a new low, remaining under 70 cents while open stock markets basically returned scratch sessions. The focus instead will be on US and European markets tonight with the latest CPI print to move Euro and USD around.

The Shanghai Composite was closed again while the Hong Kong based Hang Seng Index is currently only 6 points lower to 29937 points, not moving much after previosuly bouncing off local support at the 29000 point level so there’s still some buyers out there:

US and Eurostoxx futures are up slightly, trying to get back on track after last night’s falls with the four hourly chart of the S&P 500 looking to support price at the previous terminal resistance level at 2900 points:

Trading in the USDJPY pair is still dependent on low volumes with a wide downtrend channel being formed here, with a series of lower four hourly sessions keeping the pair below the mid 111 level, with the possibility of a small swing higher up to the high moving average on the four hourly chart unlikely to translate into further gains:

Australian stocks are again being pushed around by the financials with the ASX200 currently clinging onto a small 0.2% advance at 6352 points. The Australian dollar remains depressed and unable to get back above the 70 handle, matching and then slightly exceeding last week’s intrasession low, which could turn into a four yearly low:

The economic calendar finishes the week with a double whammy – EZ wide CPI print and the latest US services PMI Index. Have a good weekend and safe trading!

Comments

  1. GunnamattaMEMBER

    I reckon you might be right on the 4 year low for the AUD there. Although I also tend to buy HnH’s line about the AUD rising through much of the back half of this year.

    But I am only waiting for the next completely insane candidate resignation to come to pass. If this is the way our mainstream political parties vet their applicants to become candidates I can hardly wait for the next batch of S144 revelations – which should should heat the hatred the electorate feels for Australia’s political class into something approaching a white hot hatred.

    • GreatRavensGhost2

      Are we only going to nominate people who have never said anything, never done anything and doesn’t have strong opinions on anything ???

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        Only people who never had Twitter or Facebook accounts should be allowed to become candidates.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        Well weeding out those who are manifestly bigoted and have paraded their bigotry in offensive terms in the social media world vis LGBT, Jews, Chinese, Moslems, Africans etc shouldnt be that hard……..A simple question at interview along the lines of

        ‘Have you ever put views into the public domain of such substance, or in such a way, as to offend others, or which may potentially offend others – particularly members of the LGBT, world, and/or any other group within society, in particular races & religions – and particularly using social media?’

        Yes ……… No ………. Maybe ………

        What amazes me in all this is that amidst such overt bigotry we still cant have an Immigration (numbers) debate

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        A surprisingly large number of candidates should respond: “Does it count if it was on macrobusiness?”.

      • Arrow2MEMBER

        It’s not a question of having opinions, it’s a question of judgement v cluelessness.

        The LNP lady in Tas a very clear example – no political judgement at all about her own party’s election strategy and how to stay vaguely endorseable. Utterly clueless. Threashold issue and found wanting. Not fit for office. Sorry, end of story.

    • triageMEMBER

      Gunna – should make all candidates get a baseline clearance from AGSVA – if it is good enough for people manning the front desk at government buildings it should be good enough for someone seeking election to parliament. Also means they can’t lob in to become a candidate at the last minute.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        A very good mate of mine does those vets.

        And because I know exactly what is in them (I have been positively vetted years ago myself – now lapsed) I am quite strongly in agreement with you. Every last Member of the House of Representatives or Senate, or members of the staff of those in parliament should be vetted.

    • So is it purely just the Chinese stimulus that is convincing everyone to be bullish on the AUD ? Maybe if we start accepting payment in Yuan funny money for our exports you might be right.

  2. LabrynthMEMBER

    The guy who won Thursday $30 Power ball lotto

    “We rent so I’d love to own my own house. I was going to buy a house with my super when I retired, but now I can finally buy my first home.”

    Typical boomer, uses the ongoing tax advantages during the accumulation of their super and then plows it into the tax free home and goes straight onto the age pension….

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      I’m surprised Reusa bought a ticket actually. I would have thought he’d consider them to be for loosers only.

      Still, at least the prize money went to ‘one of us’.

      More seriously: got to give that guy props for thinking things through / deciding not to buy with PAYG money. Very unaustralian.

    • Typical boomer, uses the ongoing tax advantages during the accumulation of their super and then plows it into the tax free home and goes straight onto the age pension

      Don’t be so hard on the guy. (Story is here, BTW.) He’s in his 50s so he’s just as likely to be Gen X as a Boomer. And given that he’s never owned a house or new car, I don’t begrudge him his win.

      I do think it’s absurd that the Aussie property market is so distorted that many people can only realistically hope to buy their first home with their super when they retire. But I blame the government for that situation.

    • Far be it from me to protect anything that could be called Boomer but you can’t get a home loan at that age, super is required.

    • Arrow2MEMBER

      Well, I flicked through but didn’t spot the killer slide.

      Point is, will this alleged scarcity affect the price of current issues?

      • A matter of risk management as I see it…….if a recession becomes undeniable and the big super funds run for shelter there just isn’t the cover for them all until fiscal spending can cut in…….that will take time. $500 billion and half overseas is not a lot compared to the size of our funds……only Commonwealth credit will be accepted in some scenarios.

    • haroldusMEMBER

      Still on phone hotspot! Waiting for NBN FFS or even standard broadband at my new place.

      • Hey Haroldus,
        forget NBN
        * it’s likely you’ll be liable for the New Development Charge: $300
        * it’ll take week(s) until you’re connected
        * you have to take a day off to stay at home while NBN is installed
        * you’ll experience outages (sometimes more than 24hrs, based on feedback from people in my apartment building)
        * if you’re a renter then you need a permission (for drilling)

        instead of that get Optus Wireless Broadband (like I did)
        * ordered on TUE (Optus chat) and on THU I was already on the Internet
        * no drilling or subcontractor coming to your home
        * get wireless broadband modem you’ll take with you if you move again https://offer.optus.com.au/shop/broadband/mobile-broadband/huawei-b525-wifi?_ga=2.152416058.222056977.1556977746-1375031845.1545783950
        * based on my previous ADSL2+ usage with TPG (lots of ABC iView childrens’ programs + Fortnite) it was 175GB a month on average so I opted for 500GB a month/$80 as my Optus Wireless Broadband Month-to-Month plan. Now it’s approx 300GB/month
        * in the past two decades I’ve been with AOL AU, TPG Dial-Up, TPG ADSL, TPG ADSL2+, Optus Cable, Aldi Mobile (hotspot), TPG ADSL2+ again and now Optus Wireless Broadband and I’m happy to say this is the best internet I have ever had. It’s as natural as breathing the air. Not a single outage in the past 4 months.
        * The best part is here: random speedtest.net measurements revealed the speed was rarely below the NBN top speed: https://imgur.com/OQjJWQM But I live in a very low density area.

  3. DamienMEMBER

    Someone mentioned ironic ads on MB a few days ago, just got one for the food health star rating.

      • haroldusMEMBER

        Isn’t UCan in the midst of some fractious enterprise bargaining? Or is that another inst?

      • Do I look like the kind of guy that knows whats going on in higher education circles?

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Trying to provoke some industrial action eh?

      Must have a few family memeber/457s lined up.

  4. “Australian” property expo coming up soon in all major capitals. From what I can tell, 5 of the 6 major sponsors are Chinese companies. I think I will attend the one in Melbourne, might shoot some footage if they allow it.
    https://www.aupropertyexpo.com

  5. Wonder what car those kids that were at the climate change protests got dropped off in, bet it was a guzzling SUV. It’s easy to blame the government for inaction but no one wants to reduce their personal energy consumption.

    • Better off going Vegan than stop using cars. For the Environment and probably your health too..

    • Individuals can not go and build a cycleway nor a high speed railway to cut emissions.

      Cycleways would probably reduce obesity along with pollution.

      The fake Greens better build HSR or at least cycleways.

    • Arrow2MEMBER

      Well I want to reduce my energy consumption and I do. Drive a relatively fuel efficient car. Minimise elec use at home -why not, power is expensive. Better yet, will get solar panels when I own my own place and then won’t have to worry at all.

      S#cked in coal power companies.

    • And if they push for action that leads to reforms and regulations that require innovation to reduce the allowed emissions of greenhouse gasses their actions would have been worth it and of more value than all we terminal whingers that show up here to shoot off at whatever is on our t1ts that day.

    • Would you complain about an anti immigration rally that wasn’t exclusively attended by Indigenous Australians?
      Or perhaps you’d only allow fauna that preceded the arrival of the first Australians.
      Maybe only the ferns of the Wet Tropics can attend.
      Anything that isn’t a single cell organism can just F-off.
      Is that the type of petty observation that is beside the point that you’d approve of?

    • “Survey results raise concerns about the extent of the impact of anti-immigration rhetoric in Australia’s public debate” If you don’t laugh…

      • Typical lies from The Guardian.

        They want nobody in AUS to be paid more than $20/hour. Billions of men are willing to come here and work for $10/hour and The Guardian keeps demanding unlimited immigration.

    • That is some serious globalist corporatist neoliberal drivel. I notice that comments appear to be off as well, the globalists don’t like it when people call them on their crush-loading financialisation models.

      Seriously, not once did they consider that there may be limits to the workable volumes invoked in migration relative to environmental and infrastructure capacity. They then went on to insult anyone with a brain by stating that Fraser Anning sets the narrative. Unbelievable.

  6. SweeperMEMBER

    That Leigh Sales interview with Shorten was worse than Sky after dark.
    Rephrasing LNP advertising as “questions” is not journalism. she doesn’t understand any of the policies or the context:
    “LEIGH SALES: But if you have firms that have to be shifting and making the transition to having lower carbon emissions, that may mean that they have less money to spend on other forms of investment; it may mean they have lower profits, so therefore they less money to deliver in the form of company tax into government coffers.
    Those things could have a spin-off impact on to the GDP numbers?
    BILL SHORTEN: The problem with what you’re saying is that you assume there’s no cost to doing nothing, and there is”

    Doesn’t understand the concept of opportunity cost or any sort of growth theory.

    “LEIGH SALES: But as a government, you are adopting that as your policy. You must have done some projections, short-term, to what that will mean to GDP. Will it take, say, 0.1 per cent of GDP, 0.5 per cent of GDP over 10 years?”

    that’s just idiotic If there is a long term benefit there has to be a short term benefit as well as current investment is based on the state of long term expectations. then there is the added benefit that the planet doesn’t burn.

    “LEIGH SALES: But as I said, when we go through your policies, a lot of where you’re getting your revenue from is taxes on wealthy people, closing loopholes that mostly wealthy people can exploit, and you’re wanting to spend money on lower income people”

    franking credit refunds to people who pay no tax & NG deductions are not pre-distribution income. Cancelling these **benefits* is cancelling redistribution not starting it.

    • It is clearly unreasonable for Sales to ask Shorten questions on his policies.
      She should have asked herself the questions and just responded with vague phrases like opportunity cost.