Macro Afternoon

Not much to report today given that most stock markets are closed as the Golden Week holiday in Japan presses on, with both Singaporean and Chinese markets closed for a holiday.  Instead, the focus was local with ANZ reporting full year profits, up only slightly with lots of warning signs for the other divisions of Megabank as the real estate frenzy dissipates.

US and Eurostoxx futures are up slightly, with the four hourly chart of the S&P 500 wanting to push even further from the succession of record highs, with the 3000 point level the obvious target:

Trading in the USDJPY pair is still dependent on low volumes with a bottom being found somewhere near the 111 handle after making a new weekly low, with a small swing higher unlikely to take flight:

Australian stocks have rebounded strongly with no negative news or risk correlation to upset the apple cart, with a near 3% surge in ANZ shares pushing financials up across the board – except BOQ – with the broader (well, just another 40% or so) ASX200 finishing 0.8% higher to 6377 points. The Australian dollar is in a holding pattern here in anticipation of the FOMC meeting later tonight, hovering just below ATR resistance at the 70.70 level that has stuck so far this week:

The economic calendar continues tonight with all eyes on the FOMC meeting but before that could be the more important ISM Manufacturing print plus the latest DOE oil inventory report.


  1. bcnichMEMBER

    I’m feeling we are getting close to a sell off in US equities maybe a bit higher first on a false break out then head to test 2018 lows in H2, starting May June
    HnH looks right that market might be a little long dollars versus euro so we may see a little clean out lower In DXY before testing 100
    GOLDMAN MB BLOXO CRAIG JAMES all long Aussie, it’s not much of a bounce, think we may break into 69s again at some stage
    Think Aussie bond yields will be much lower end of year, think we will test 1% in next 12 months

    Who would buy a Spanish 2 year bond at a fraction of US interest rate, it can only be ECB.
    How long can they keep this circus going

    • Goog got smashed overnnight due to earning expectations miss. It was wayyyy over bought though. After the drop around Oct last year, the recovery was too sharp too fast.

    • In your style my prediction.
      The US markets up 5-10 % until the election.
      Democrats win-everything back to normal another 15-25 % up. Brexit and Trump canceled .Globalization intact.
      Music back to 80’s and happy times again.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Look, I’ve come across women in the professional world before but I much more prefer them in the party world where I see them regularly.

      • Women choose GP as it’s more lifestyle friendly and allows them to have children. It also allows you to basically start straight away, finishing your training earlier and fastracks your career progression. The tradeoff, you’re out of the hospital system, no weekends (if you choose), no long days, no night shifts, but for far less pay

        The other side of the coin is for those who pursue surgical training pathways (esp. orthopedics and vascular). Its usually 4-5 years as an unaccredited trainee BEFORE getting on the program(if you can get on), with regular nights and long days. Once you’ve cmopleted your 4-6 years of training and fellowship year, you can then start working, but it’s still long days and contains plenty of on call for emergenciees. The tradeoff, $$$

        I’m a doc and the area I’m working in is amazing, but bloody hard work, but yes it’s well paid. Due to competition to get in and how hard the work is, many people (men and women) don’t apply because of this. This is why there is an earnings gap in medicine especially.

  2. East Coast dam levels.
    Brisbane 69% (Wivenhoe 58%)
    Melbourne 51%
    Sydney 55% – If levels keep falling as they have been, it’ll be 3 months til Stage 1 Water Restrictions in Sydney.

    YAY population growth!

    • My last few work vehicles have been an Amarok, V6 Hilux, Ranger and a Troop Carrier. When I bought a 4WD I went straight to the Jimny because I knew how much the big boys cost to run. The first maker to break the EV ute market is going to romp it in. They’ll be like Michael Holding for cyclists: whispering death.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        I was thinking that when I read it first. Could one of the big pick-ups be good enough to change minds to the extent that the whole public attitude towards EVs could change?

        There’s eventually going to be one that stands out with reliability, cost and range compared to an ICE vehicle. I’d laugh my head off if it was the ones driven by the six o’clock nutcases that changed the game.

    • Could easily be the case if you include speculative small caps small cap mining and oil explorers, plus tech startups and biotechs. Same for Canadough.

    • DingwallMEMBER

      When you consider only 10-15 companies make up like 50-60% of the market cap of the ASX200, you realise the rest and those others making up the balance of the All Ords are just tiny. I would say the 70% sounds about right….. The really annoying thing is these companies look like having pretty much no real future, are making losses and are paying their exec’s small fortunes…. meanwhile their shareholders get squeezed for cash very few years to keep that going.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        True. But enough about Tesltra. Any thoughts about productive smaller companies in Aus?

    • Good call on the Canadian banks. The real estate market in Canada is insane, especially Vancouver where billions of dollars, mostly from China, have been laundered into houses. is a Twitter account that I follow to get my schadenfreude fix as it tracks Vancouver house prices down.

    • be assured mealy mouthed motherhood rhetoric won’t cut it.
      Prepare to be disappointed early and subsequently often by this shining light as evidenced by her previous stint as finance minister to treasurer Swan.