We can speculate. The excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse tabulates Q1 GDP for us:
Business capex came in below expectations, falling by 1.7% in 1Q, with downward revisions to prior quarters’ data. For the national accounts, the ABS uses the earlier release of “construction work done” to estimate structures investment, as it has wider coverage. It only uses the “equipment, plant and machinery” component of the business capex survey for the national accounts. With this in mind, we note that private business capex on equipment, plant and machinery fell by 0.5% over the quarter.
The running tally for 1Q GDP growth is poor. Accounting for retail sales, construction work done, business capex and net exports, over 50% of GDP combined, we arrive at a slightly negative growth number. There is more data to come of course on government consumption and inventories, and so this preliminary tally is likely to be revised. But nevertheless, 1Q has been underwhelming, certainly relative to RBA forecasts.
