Via Fitch today:
Housing Downturn Fears Escalate:Within the space of a year, falling house prices have risen to be the most serious threat to Australian credit markets, according to Australian fixed-income investors. Fitch Ratings’ 2Q19 survey reveals that 70% of investors rank a domestic housing-market downturn as the top risk to Australian credit markets over the next 12 months. When we asked the same question a year ago as part of our 2Q18 survey, only 29% of investors rated a housing downturn as a high risk.
Weak House-Price Outlook: The vast majority (95%) of investors expect house prices to keep falling over the next 12 months –15% foresee falls of greater than 10%, while not one investor believes prices will rise. In light of this, it is no surprise that investors assess property market exposure to be the greatest risk to Australian banks’ credit quality over the next 12 months.
