Essential: Labor to win easily

Via The Guardian:

Labor remains ahead of the Coalition in the final Guardian Essential poll of the 2019 campaign, and a majority of voters believe Bill Shorten will be the winner on Saturday night.

The final survey of 1,201 voters has Labor in front of the Coalition 51.5% to 48.5% on the two-party preferred measure, which is the same as last week. The Coalition’s primary vote is 38.5% (up from 38% a week ago) and Labor’s is 36.2% (up from 34%).

Both major parties recorded an improvement in primary votes within the margin of error as the campaign enters its final days – the Greens are on a primary vote of 9.1% (down from 12% a week ago), One Nation on 6.6% (down from 7%) and others/independents are on 9.6% (up from 9%).

Scott Morrison remains ahead of Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, but he has dropped three points in a week, slipping back to where he was just after the leadership spill last August. Morrison is preferred by 39% of the Guardian Essential survey to 32% for Shorten.

The Labor leader’s rating in the preferred prime minister question this week is his highest relative to his opponent since Morrison took the Liberal leadership – up five points since September 2018.

And News:

Deakin in Melbourne’s east has swung significantly towards Labor, with support for the Liberal incumbent Michael Sukkar collapsing by more than 6 per cent.

Mr Sukkar is part of the Coalition’s far-right faction and was one of the key forces behind last year’s chaotic attempt to install Peter Dutton as prime minister.

Deakin is on a 6.5 per cent margin, but the new poll shows Labor hopeful Shireen Morris has gained serious ground, increasing her primary vote to 37 per cent.

I see a decent landslide.


    • He was sacked from his last job as Assistant Minister for Financial Services and replaced with the useless Zed Seselja. Now that is humiliating.

    • J BauerMEMBER

      Are you seriously considering voting for a homophobic, hater of the natural environment, who took a lump of coal into parliament? This election is only about the less of two evils.

      Edit: I agree with you re the Greens. They are the horrible.

      • BubbleyMEMBER

        “Political parties don’t get voted in. Parties get voted out”

        I forget who said it, but it’s true. The current LNP is so out of touch with the population and so corrupt that they need to be wiped out and started again. Some policies apart from “We are not Labor” would be good too.

      • I’ll keep voting for One Nation as long as they oppose immigration and gay propaganda. Don’t care about the rest of their policies.

  1. Even though Labor may win the lower house. The Senate is the one to watch. Lots of twist and turns to get Labor agenda implemented. See how good a negotiator is Bill cf Julia.

      • Gillard had a majority in the Senate with the Greens. Once the Greens got their carbon tax promise, it was actually quite easy for her. Nothing like the last 6 years (or most likely the next 6 years).

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Yes, it was amusing to see the amount of times the Libs lost votes in the House of Reps over the last few years. In the end they just stopped having them.

        Shut down the running of the country because inability to negotiate. Straya. Winning.

  2. It would be great to have a good opposition liberal party which means no abbot Dutton hunt Sukkar and unlikely but hopefully fraudenburg.

  3. Labor to win easily? I don’t think so. As much as I hope they do, I’m predicting that it will be much closer than the polls predict due to; sample methodology, house bias, voter apathy and general voter knowledge.

    The majority of younger generation (plus the boomer crew) here at work genuinely believe that the election is going to come down to; cheaper rents with Liberal, higher taxes with Labor. Completely detached from reality and no recognition of any of the events over the past six years.

    • The majority of younger generation (plus the boomer crew) here at work genuinely believe that the election is going to come down to; cheaper rents with Liberal, higher taxes with Labor.

      ಢ_ಥ [heavily distraught]

  4. It all comes down to whether you prefer to be bitten by a Blue Ringed octopus, a Red-bellied Black or, heaven forbid, a Green Mamba……

    • Yep, but it’ll be the United (CCP) of Australia party. And that won’t come with any health care or other services, but we will get surveilled and have to work hard on our social credits.

  5. At least in our Democracy we get the opportunity to vote out the “corrupted LNP party” (as described above) & we can vote in the Labor Party. That is so satisfying as there would be no corruption amongst that lot. All will be healed & every wrong will be made good. Thank God for ALP.