Via The Guardian:
Labor remains ahead of the Coalition in the final Guardian Essential poll of the 2019 campaign, and a majority of voters believe Bill Shorten will be the winner on Saturday night.
The final survey of 1,201 voters has Labor in front of the Coalition 51.5% to 48.5% on the two-party preferred measure, which is the same as last week. The Coalition’s primary vote is 38.5% (up from 38% a week ago) and Labor’s is 36.2% (up from 34%).
Both major parties recorded an improvement in primary votes within the margin of error as the campaign enters its final days – the Greens are on a primary vote of 9.1% (down from 12% a week ago), One Nation on 6.6% (down from 7%) and others/independents are on 9.6% (up from 9%).
Scott Morrison remains ahead of Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, but he has dropped three points in a week, slipping back to where he was just after the leadership spill last August. Morrison is preferred by 39% of the Guardian Essential survey to 32% for Shorten.
The Labor leader’s rating in the preferred prime minister question this week is his highest relative to his opponent since Morrison took the Liberal leadership – up five points since September 2018.
Deakin in Melbourne’s east has swung significantly towards Labor, with support for the Liberal incumbent Michael Sukkar collapsing by more than 6 per cent.
Mr Sukkar is part of the Coalition’s far-right faction and was one of the key forces behind last year’s chaotic attempt to install Peter Dutton as prime minister.
Deakin is on a 6.5 per cent margin, but the new poll shows Labor hopeful Shireen Morris has gained serious ground, increasing her primary vote to 37 per cent.
I see a decent landslide.