Australian Politics

Betting markets hose Scummo

David Llewellyn-Smith
Monday, 13 May 2019
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Via Mark the Ballot:

The past 12 days have seen a sustained decline for the Coalition’s mean win probability on betting markets, from a campaign high of 29.2 per cent to a record low of 17.2 per cent this morning.

Date Mean Coalition Win Probability (%)
2019-04-11 19.30
2019-04-12 20.75
2019-04-13 21.65
2019-04-14 21.96
2019-04-15 21.96
2019-04-16 20.24
2019-04-17 20.19
2019-04-18 21.50
2019-04-19 21.53
2019-04-20 22.65
2019-04-21 23.01
2019-04-22 23.44
2019-04-23 23.44
2019-04-24 22.96
2019-04-25 23.30
2019-04-26 24.54
2019-04-27 24.54
2019-04-28 24.54
2019-04-29 25.29
2019-04-30 29.15
2019-05-01 28.13
2019-05-02 27.08
2019-05-03 27.08
2019-05-04 24.61
2019-05-05 23.30
2019-05-06 22.30
2019-05-07 23.14
2019-05-08 23.04
2019-05-09 20.20
2019-05-10 18.01
2019-05-11 17.17

This dramatic rise and fall since the campaign began on 11 April can be seen on the right hand side of the following charts.


Turning to the individual seat markets at Sportsbet, the summary charts follow. Consistent with the above charts, the bookmakers see a sizable Labor majority as the most likely outcome.

I have also used the probabilities from the individual seats for a Monte Carlo simulation of the election. In these simulations, Labor has a 99.5 per cent chance of forming a majority government.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.