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Via Mark the Ballot:
This morning’s read from prediction markets for the Federal election outcome shows a marked change on yesterday. Yesterday I had the mean Coalition win probability across the three houses I follow (Beteasy, Ladbrokes and Sportsbet) at 25.3 per cent. This morning it had jumped to 29.2 per cent.
If we turn to the specific data for yesterday and this morning, we can the change occurred in each of the three markets.
Date House Coalition ($) Labor ($) Coalition Win Probability 2019-04-29 Ladbrokes 3.5 1.3 0.2708 2019-04-29 BetEasy 3.9 1.25 0.2427 2019-04-29 Sportsbet 3.85 1.25 0.2451 2019-04-30 Ladbrokes 3.15 1.35 0.3 2019-04-30 BetEasy 3.3 1.33 0.2873 2019-04-30 Sportsbet 3.3 1.33 0.2873 A comparison with where the betting markets were on the morning of 11 April, when the election was called, suggests that punters think Scott Morrison has improved his chances of winning over the campaign to date.
Date House Coalition ($) Labor ($) Coalition Win Probability 2019-04-11 Ladbrokes 4.75 1.17 0.1976 2019-04-11 BetEasy 5 1.16 0.1883 2019-04-11 Sportsbet 4.85 1.16 0.1930
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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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